Transcript A Long-Term Target: Framing the Climate Effort

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Beyond Kyoto
A Long-Term Target:
Framing the Climate Effort
Prepared for the Pew Center on Global
Climate Change by
Jonathan Pershing
(International Energy Agency)
Fernando Tudela
(El Colegio de México)
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Climate Change: a long-term challenge
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Impacts: huge time lags (over a century)
Mitigation: long life cycles
Political systems: ill prepared to cope with
long-term problems
Societies heavily discount
distant impacts:
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Time line
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Long-term targets
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Article 2 UNFCCC: stabilize concentrations to
avoid dangerous interference…+ qualifier..
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UNFCCC + KP: emphasis on short-term action
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Climate regime needs bolstering
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 Could negotiating a long-term
target be useful / essential to
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boost / guide action?
The case for long-term targets
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Defining a goal for climate efforts
Awareness of long-term consequences
Calibrating progress: Are we on track?
Enhancing economic certainty:
stable signals for technological change
Limiting future risks
Mobilizing society
Promoting global participation
Some Parties are already adopting non-binding
long-term targets:
EU, UK, Sweden
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle: Backcasting
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Setting targets at different stages
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A target at any stage has effects on the others
Target setting involves the whole cycle
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Entry point would frame the process
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Early stages: strongest control, shorter time lags
Later stages: higher legitimacy (specific risks
avoided), but: huge time lags + accumulated
uncertainties
The paper addresses target setting at every
stage:
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Possible form of the target
implications for other stages
Pros & cons
Negotiation´s hurdles
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CO2, temperature, impacts, emissions, and cost
Eventual Time of
CO2
stabiliStabilizati zation*
on level†
Mean
surface
temperature
change by
2100**
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Mean
surface
temperature
change (at
equilibrium)**
Risks by
2100
Five selected
reasons of
concern***
(white- red
scale)
Cumulative
Carbon
Emissions
1990-2100
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(GtC)
Possible
pathway
(Global
emissions
peaking
at…GtC/
year, by
year…)
Cost:
Global
average
GDP
reduction
in year
2050
450 ppm
2100
1.2 - 2.3°C
1.5 – 3.9°C
I: white; II,
III: yelloworange; IV, V:
orange-red
630- 650
9 GtC by
2020
1- 4.1%
550 ppm
2150
1.6 – 2.9°C
2.0 – 5.0°C
I: yellow; II,
III: yelloworange; IV, V:
red
870- 990
11 GtC no
later than
2030
0.1- 1.7%
650 ppm
2200
1.8 – 3.1°C
2.4 – 6.1°C
I: yellow; II,
III: orange;
IV, V: red
1030-1190
750 ppm
2250
1.9 – 3.4°C
2.8 – 7.0°C
I: yellow; II,
III: orange;
IV, V: red
1200- 1300
1000 ppm
2375
2.0 – 3.5°C
3.5 – 8.7°C
I: yelloworange; II, III:
orange; IV, V:
red
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13 GtC by
2070
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0- 1.5%
0- 1.0%
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Setting a long-term target: the obstacles
 Technical difficulties: uncertainties
 Political obstacles:
– Global burden defined
– defining “acceptable risk”
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burden sharing
compensations
– Equity issues become central
– Dilemma: negotiation´s success vs stringency
of outcome
– Limited “negotiating energy”; morale hurt by
failure
Conclusions
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Negotiating a long-term target: liabilities
outweigh potential benefits
If undertaken at all, the negotiation should focus
on the earliest stages of the cycle: activities,
emissions [input rather than output]
Alternatives to a long-term target:
 Hedging: a medium-term target that would leave some
long-term concentration target open
 Targets with limited constituency (but including
leading players)
 Notional target, informal adoption
 Directional goad based on strengthened science
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A Hedging Strategy
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Source: IPCC
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Conclusions II
More important than any tool, including targetsetting, is willingness to act
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The value of developing a long-term target will
depend on whether or not the negotiating
process fosters political will
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For More Information
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www.pewclimate.org