Transcript Energy Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation

The Role of
Technology in a Lowcarbon Society
Selected Key Findings from the
Global Energy Technology Strategy
Program
Jae Edmonds
February 16, 2008
PNNL-SA-51961
1
Acknowledgements
GTSP Sponsors – Phases 1,2, & 3
• Thanks to the Baker
Institute.
• Thanks to the
sponsors of the
Global Energy
Technology Strategy
Program (GTSP) for
research support.
2
A Note on Units
CO2 Versus C
• 1 ton C
= 44/12 tons of CO2
= 32/3 tons of CO2
= ~4 tons of CO2
• $1/ton CO2= $32/3 tons of C
= ~$4 tons of C
Both appear in the literature.
This presentation used tons of carbon.
3
Key Findings of the GTSP
• Climate is a long-term problem, with implications for actions
today.
• Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 means fundamental
change to the global energy system.
• Technology will play a central role in addressing a growing
mitigation challenge in the near-, mid- and long-term.
• Six technology systems could play dramatically greater
roles in a climate constrained world.
CO2 capture and storage, Biotechnology, Hydrogen systems, Nuclear
energy, Wind and solar, and End-use energy technologies, though
none is a “silver bullet.”
• A strategy to develop and deploy technology should be part
of a larger program—including scientific research,
emissions limitation, and adaptation to climate change.
4
Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions Gigatons per Year
Climate change is a long-term strategic
problem with implications for today
20
Historical Emissions
GTSP_750
GTSP_650
GTSP_550
GTSP_450
GTSP Reference Case
15
10
Fossil Fuel Carbon
Emissions
Historic & 2005 to 2100
1750-2005
300 GtC
GTSP Ref 1430 GtC
750 ppm 1200 GtC
650 ppm 1040 GtC
5
550 ppm 862 GtC
450 ppm 480 GtC
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
• Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of the
Framework Convention on Climate Change.
• Stabilizing CO2 concentrations at any level means that global, CO2
emissions must peak and then decline forever.
5
A global commitment to stabilizing CO2
concentrations requires a carbon price that
escalates over time
• Price of carbon
should start low and
rise steadily to
minimize society’s
costs.
Global Value of Carbon
800
700
$/tonne (2000$)
600
450 ppm
550 ppm
650 ppm
750 ppm
stabilization
stabilization
stabilization
stabilization
• Eventually all nations
and economic sectors
need to be covered
as the atmosphere is
indifferent as to the
source of CO2
emissions.
500
400
300
200
• The response to this
$102/tC
100
$19/tC
$10/tC
$4/tC
0
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
escalating price of
carbon will vary
across economic
sectors and regions.
6
Year 2020 USA carbon prices for
different international regimes: 450
and 550 ppm
Near-term carbon prices depend on both the concentration at
which CO2 is stabilized and the degree and timing of accession.
Ideal
Parallel Regimes 2020 Accession
Parallel Regimes 2035 Accession
Parallel Regimes 2050 Accession
53
50
Index 550 ppm 2020 price = 1.0
60
N/A
Impossible
with post
2050 NonAnnex 1
accession
40
30
20
8
10
5
Ideal
Parallel Regimes 2020 Accession
Parallel Regimes 2035 Accession
Parallel Regimes 2050 Accession
50
Index 550 ppm 2020 price = 1.0
60
40
30
20
10
1.0
0
1.2
1.4
2.1
0
450 ppm
Preliminary Results550 ppm
7
Year 2020 Annex I emissions mitigation, relative to
2005, for different accession assumptions: 450 ppm
450 ppm
100%
Set
Set
Set
Set
90%
3:
3:
3:
1:
1st Accession 2050-65
1st Accession 2035-50
1st Accession 2020-35
450 ppm
80%
50%
40%
Not Possible
60%
Not Possible
70%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2020
2050
8
The role of technology
9
Future projections of energy use and CO2 emissions
assume significant technological progress in their
no-climate-policy, business-as-usual cases
CO2 Concentration
Carbon Emissions
1000
50
45
40
2005 Technology
GTSPII Reference
550 ppmv Constraint
900
800
700
25
ppmv .
GtC/year .
35
30
2005 Technology
GTSPII Reference
550 ppmv Constraint
pre-Industrial
600
500
20
400
15
300
10
200
5
100
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
10
Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means fundamental
change to the global energy system
History and Reference Case
1400
Future
1200
1200
1000
1000
.
800
Present CO2
Concentration
~380 ppm
600
800
400
200
200
Preindustrial CO2
Concentration
~280 ppm
1900
1950
2000
2050
0
2100 1850
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Biomass Energy
Non-Biomass Renewable Energy
2100 CO2
Concentration
~550 ppm
Future
Present CO2
Concentration
~380 ppm
600
400
0
1850
Stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppm
History
EJ/year
EJ/year
..
History
2100 CO2
Concentration
~740 ppm
1400
1900
1950
2000
Oil + CCS
Natural Gas + CCS
Coal + CCS
Nuclear Energy
End-use Energy
2050
2100
11
The response to this escalating price of
carbon will vary across economic
sectors and regions.
Stabilization changes the sources of fossil CO2 emissions. Utility
emissions drop to virtually zero. Transportation emissions dominate.
25
Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Reference Case
25
15
15
GtC/yr
20
GtC/yr
20
Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
550 ppm Stabilization
10
10
5
5
0
0
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Buildings
Electricity
Natural Gas
Transportation
Industry
Hydrogen
Liquids Production
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Buildings
Electricity
Natural Gas
Transportation
Industry
Hydrogen
Liquids Production
12
The challenge of scale
13
The Challenge of Scale—
near term
CO2 Storage—550 ppm Stabilization Case
80
Millions of Tons of Carbon per Year
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monitored CO2 Storage Today
2020 (550 ppm)
14
In the mid- and long-term the
challenge grows
80
60
7,000
50
CO2 Storage Rate Level 2 (~550 ppm)
40
30
20
10
0
Monitored CO2 Storage Today
2020 (550 ppm)
Millions of Tons of Carbon per Year
Millions of Tons of Carbon per Year
70
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Monitored CO2
Storage Today
2020 (550 ppm)
2050 (550 ppm)
2095 (550 ppm)
15
CO2 emissions mitigation during 2005
to 2050 is just the start
• The time scale of emissions
Emissions Mitigation 2005 to
2050 and 2050 to 2095
2005 to 2050
2050 to 2095
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
750 ppm 650 ppm 550 ppm 450 ppm
mitigation is a century or
more.
• Energy technology will be
needed to help control
emissions in the NEAR-,
MID-, and Long-term to
address climate change.
• Investments in basic
scientific research in the first
half of the 21st century can
be transformed into energy
technologies that can
become a major part of the
global energy system in the
second half of the century.
16
Bioenergy and Land use
17
Biotechnology—One of the 6 Key Technologies
that Could Deploy Dramatically in a ClimateConstrained World
• Biotechnology is itself a portfolio of technologies
– Soil carbon
– Sequestration via reforestation and afforestation
– Growth of crops for their energy content
– Potential advances from the biological revolution in
science.
• Bioenergy crops are particularly interesting because
they potentially offer a way to produce energy
without producing any net CO2 emissions.
18
Some Insights from Our
Research on Biotechnology
• In a climate-constrained world bioenergy crops
could become the largest single crop grown by
humans on the planet.
• The development of a bioenergy industry fueled by
purpose-grown bioenergy crops depends on
continued growth in non-biomass crop productivity
as well as progress in bioenergy crop productivity.
• Technologies can work in combinations. Combining
bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage could
provide a way to produce energy and produce
NEGATIVE emissions of CO2.
19
To the atmosphere all carbon counts the
same. Carbon cycle implications of valuing
terrestrial carbon emissions
3.0
2.5
450 ppm No
Carbon Tax
2.0
450 ppm
GTC/Year
1.5
550 ppm
1.0
0.5
650 ppm
0.0
-0.5
750 ppm
-1.0
GTSP
Reference
-1.5
-2.0
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
20
Stabilization of CO2 concentrations means
fundamental change to the global energy system
• CO2 capture and storage (CCS) plays a
potentially large role assuming that the
institutions make adequate provision
for its use.
• Biotechnology has dramatic potential,
but important land-use implications.
• Hydrogen could be a major new energy
carrier, but requires important
technology advances in fuel cells and
storage.
• Nuclear energy could deploy
extensively throughout the world but
public acceptance, institutional
constraints, waste, safety and
proliferation issues remain.
Future
History
1200
.
1000
EJ/year
… but the character of the
global energy system will
depend on technology
developments:
1400
800
600
400
200
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
• Wind & solar could accelerate
their expansion particularly if
energy storage improves.
• End-use energy technologies
that improve efficiency and/or
use energy carriers with low
emissions, e.g. electricity
deploy more extensively.`
21
Technology in the Near, Mid, and
Long Term
• The challenge of scale grows exponentially
over the century
• The role of technology is to help manage the
cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas
concentrations.
– Emissions mitigation starts with the existing suite of technologies.
– Improving the existing suite of technologies will help to lower the
cost of stabilization.
– In the long term that suite of improving technology options can be
augmented by new technology options, some of which do not yet
have names. Those technologies will emerge out of near-term
investments in basic and applied science across a broad range of
research domains.
22
The GTSP Report
Copies of the Report are Available upon request
And on the Web
http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp
or
http://gtsp.battelle.org
23