Transcript Climate risk, climate change and climate smart development

WORKING TITLE:
Development in a Changing Climate
or
A Changing Climate for Development
World Development Report
2010
A call to action
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Climate change is one of many challenges facing
developing countries…
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..but unless it is tackled soon, it will reverse
development gains and exacerbate inequalities.
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“Climate-smart” development is needed and can be
achieved.
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Rich countries must take leadership on climate
action now, but we can’t succeed without the active
cooperation of middle-income countries.
The science is incredibly strong and
verified
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Surface and tropospheric temperatures increasing
Atmospheric water vapour increasing
Ocean heat content increasing …
… sea level rise directly linked and probably cyclone/hurricane intensity
Glaciers and snow cover decreasing
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets losing mass with …
… Arctic Sea ice extent decreasing—VERY RAPIDLY!!!!
Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing
More intense and longer droughts
Frequency of heavy precipitation events and floods increasing
Extreme temperatures increasing
Monsoon patterns changing
Unequivocal
Why Climate Change is a Serious
Development Issue
All countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest
countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable.
They are the most exposed and have the least means to adapt.
People in
developing
countries are
affected at more
than 20 times the
rate of those in
developed
countries
4,000
Number affected (Millions)
In this decade
over 3 billion
people in
developing
countries are
likely to be
affected by
climate related
disasters
3,000
Dev'ed
CIT
2,000
Dev'ing
LDC
1,000
-
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
Source: World Bank analysis based on CREDA data.
Climate Change and the Bank
Climate Change and the Bank
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Carbon Finance
–
–
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Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) in 1999 – capped at $180M
Now 10 funds and over $2 billion under management
Carbon Partnership Facility (CPF) – go programmatic
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Engage both buyers & sellers – target $5 billion
Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF)
–
A call for the Bank’s engagement in three climate pillars
 Energy Access
 Clean Energy for Development
 Climate Resilient Development (Adaptation)
Climate Change and the Bank
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Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)
– Pilot REDD – c. $0.5 billion
IDA Replenishment
– Argued that increased resources were need to
move to climate resilient development
–
Accept that not all of these initiatives meet the
demand that all funding come under the UNFCCC
process
Climate Change and the Bank
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Climate Investment Funds
–
Clean Technology Fund
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–
c. $5 billion for transformational change in currently
viable technologies
Strategic Climate Fund
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Pilot Program for Climate Resilience – c. 0.5 billion
Forest initiative
Renewables initiative
Strategic Framework for Climate
Change and Development (SFCCD)
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The SFCCD is about development in the
context of climate change
Priority of growth, poverty reduction and
MDGs
Importance of meeting energy needs of
developing countries
Role of development in helping to adapt to
climate risks
Resource mobilization in addition to the
current ODA levels
SFCCD Pillars
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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Make effective climate action – both adaptation and
mitigation - part of core development efforts
Address the resource gap through existing and
innovative instruments for concessional finance
Facilitate the development of innovative market
mechanisms
Create enabling environment for and leveraging private
sector finance
Accelerate the deployment of existing and development
of new climate-friendly technologies
Step-up policy research, knowledge management and
capacity building
Sustainable Development @ The World Bank
Climate Change Matters for
Development
12
Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions Gigatons per Year
Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means fundamental
change to the global energy and land use systems.
20
Historical Emissions
GTSP_750
GTSP_650
GTSP_550
GTSP_450
GTSP Reference Case
15
Fossil Fuel Carbon
Emissions
Historic & 2005 to 2100
1750-2005
10
5
1850
13
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
300 GtC
GTSP Ref
1430 GtC
750 ppm
1200 GtC
650 ppm
1040 GtC
550 ppm
862 GtC
450 ppm
480 GtC
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
Stern, 2006
Climate change cannot be tackled
without developing countries
Development matters to climate
change
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The past…rich countries responsible for about 60%
of GHGs stocks
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The future…half GHGs flows are now from middleincome countries and that share will grow.
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Costs of controlling emissions rise if we delay; the
sooner all countries participate, the lower the total
costs
The basis for a global deal
GHG stabilization costs for 550 ppm target, relative to ‘first best’
Scenario
Immediate
action by all
Global
cost
non-Annex I
share of costs
Annex I
share of
costs
$1.00
0.72
0.28
$0.72
$0.28
non-Annex I
cost
Annex I
cost
Delayed action for developing countries:
2020
$1.47
0.38
0.62
$0.56
$0.91
2035
$1.69
0.34
0.66
$0.57
$1.12
2050
$2.39
0.28
0.72
$0.67
$1.72
The precautionary principle
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The case for (in)action is not just about discount
rates…
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Also about irreversibility, tipping points, extreme
events and sustainable development
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50% chance of warming above 2oC even with concentrations at
450 ppm CO2e
Above 2oC, real danger of irreversible changes
Danger is real, particularly for poorer countries…
Objectives and Value Added of
the WDR 2010
Objectives
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Inform development policy:
Climate change does represent a changing climate for
development
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Inform climate policy:
Unless development realities are integrated into climate
change agreements, such agreements will fail
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Refocus the vision of sustainable development:
Increase understanding of how development policy should be
designed in a greenhouse world
Value added
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Focus on development
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Integrate adaptation and mitigation
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Present evidence that the elements of a deal exist
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Highlight development opportunities in the changing
competitive landscape – and how to seize them
Proposed Outline
Part I. Climate-Smart Development
Policy
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The land and water challenge - Managing competing
demands and creating new opportunities
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The energy challenges - Managing competing
objectives and creating a new comparative
advantage
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Managing human vulnerability - helping people help
themselves
Where we are headed – crop yield by 2080
Agro-Economic Vulnerability to Future Climate
Change
Water: More crop per drop" (E. Marris, 3-21-08)
Nature, 2008
Emissions Mitigation Scenario
Policy Scenario includes a cumulative reduction of emissions of 40%
from 2012 to 2100, where limits on fossil fuel usage spurs biomass
conversion.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Page 27
Source: Gurgel et al. 2007
Part II. Development-Smart Climate
Policy
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An International Architecture for Climate change and
Development
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Harnessing Finance and Market Instruments for
Mitigation and Adaptation
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Harnessing Innovation and Technology Diffusion for
Mitigation and Adaptation
in billion $
Development public R&D
expenditure (in OECD)
270
12
250
11
230
10
210
9
190
8
170
7
150
6
Total R&D (left axis)
Source: Doornbosch, 2006
Energy R&D (right axis)
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The near-term challenge of scale
CO2 Storage—550 ppm Stabilization Case
80
Millions of Tons of Carbon per Year
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monitored CO2 Storage Today
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2020 (550 ppm)
The mid- and long-term the challenge
80
60
7,000
50
CO2 Storage—550 ppm Stabilization Case
40
30
20
10
0
Monitored CO2 Storage Today
2020 (550 ppm)
Millions of Tons of Carbon per Year
Millions of Tons of Carbon per Year
70
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Monitored CO2
Storage Today
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2020 (550 ppm)
2050 (550 ppm)
2095 (550 ppm)
Cross cutting themes
Adaptation
Anticipatory
Reactive
• Changes in ecosystem composition
• Wetland migration
• Invasion, extinction and simplification
Natural
Systems
• Construction of house on stilts
• Water conservation
• Changes in farming practices
• Changes in insurance premiums
• Purchase of air conditioning
• Early-warning systems
• New building codes, design standards
• Incentives for relocation
• Compensatory payments, subsidies
• Enforcement of building codes
• Beach nourishment
Private
• Purchase of insurance
Public
Human
Systems
Source: Based on Klein 1998: IPCC 2001
Anticipatory
Private
Natural
Systems
Public
Human
Systems
Reactive
• Manage for resiliency
• Conserve gene pools
• Manage for change
• Changes in ecosystem composition
• Wetland migration
• Invasion, extinction and simplification
• Purchase of insurance
• Construction of house on stilts
• water conservation
• Changes in farm practices
• Changes in insurance premiums
• Purchase of air conditioning
• Early-warning systems
• New building codes, design standards
• Incentives for relocation
• Compensatory payments, subsidies
• Enforcement of building codes
• Beach nourishment
Source: Based on Klein 1998: IPCC 2001
Adaptation and Surprise
 Complex systems: inherently hard to predict
 “Data sparse, theory limited, surprise normal”
 Climate change will interact with multiple stressors in
unexpected ways
 Increasing global prosperity
 Demographic and Public health challenges
 Urbanization and Rural-urban migration
 Coastal vulnerability (floods, storm surge, sea
level)
Part III Achieving climate-smart
decisions
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Global problem, local action: effective national and
community-level actions
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Getting to decisions - Managing the politics and
social-psychology of climate change
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Getting to good decisions – institutions and
information; Adaptive policies and governance
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Recent “Climate Governance and Development
Conference” in Berlin will be a key input
Characteristics of adaptive policies:
- in-built adjustment mechanisms
- interactive decision-making and learning
- decentralized (subsidiarity)
- encourage self-organization and
networks
- provision of review mechanisms
When two elephants fight…
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…it is the grass that gets hurt
Feedback Sought
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Storyline & key messages
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Doom & gloom or vision & opportunity
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Climate change as an opportunity: REDD, land-based
emissions
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Bottom-up adaptation approaches; top-down incentives
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Case studies – good and bad
HOW TO MAKE IT HAPPEN, AND IN TIME….
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Where “IT” is adequate, acceptable and achievable?
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Can (should) the WDR be neutral to the negotiations?
Some other ‘food for thought’
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How can the emissions cuts be achieved
while leaving space for development and
time for technological and lifestyle changes?
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Role of CDM
Global 2 tCO2/person cap and trading of these
rights
Should we keep working for a 450ppm
stabilisation (2ºC) while also preparing for a
550+ppm (3 to 4ºC)?
Some other ‘food for thought’
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Can a momentum for change be sustained in
the face of other pressures (e.g. food and
finance crises)
If there are so many win-wins out there for
climate change and development, why
haven’t they been taken up already?
Some other ‘food for thought’
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What is the best role for the WDR with respect
to the UNFCCC process and Copenhagen?
What constitutes a fair outcome?
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Natural debt of the North v financial debt of the
South
Within nation equity
Is ‘Adequate, Achievable and Acceptable” a
more pragmatic approach?
Thank you
www.worldbank.org/environment
World Bank environment website
www.worldbank.org/climatechange
World Bank climate change website
www.carbonfinance.org
World Bank carbon finance website
www.worldbank.org/climateconsult
Global Consultations towards a Strategic
Framework on Climate Change and
Development for the World Bank Group
www.worldbank.org/cif
Climate Investment Funds dedicated
website
www.worldbank.org/EnvironmentMatters
Environment Matters 2007 focuses on the
immediate necessity for developing
countries to begin adapting to climate
change
www.worldbank.org/devoutreach
Development Outreach on climate change
www.worldbank.org/idaandclimatechange
IDA and Climate Change paper
Advisors
J. Schellnhuber (PIK)
 N. Nakicenovic (IIASA)
 JC. Hourcade (France)
 G. Heal (Columbia)
 J. Weyant (Stanford)
 Zhou Dadi (China)
 C. Nobre (Brazil)
 C. Juma (Harvard)
 N. Adger (East Anglia)
 S. Huq (IIED)
 J. Holdren (Harvard)
 R. Watson (DEFRA, UK Govt)
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