Transcript 1203 Lecture, Climate Policy

Climate Change
The Policy Dimensions
www.ipcc.ch
The Human Condition:
http://www.breathingearth.net/
The Problem
Scientific Conclusions
IMPACTS
•
The impacts of climate change are, with high confidence
(90%), expected to be most significant when and where they
occur in the context of multiple stresses from other sources
such as poverty, unequal access to resources, food insecurity,
and environmental degradation. The intensities of these
interactions vary from place to place and over time along
specific development pathways.
•
Medium confidence (50%) global estimates of the number of
people adversely affected by climate change by 2080: water
scarcity 1-3 billion, hunger 200-600 million, coastal flooding 2-7
million.
AR4 WG2 fresh water
resources
Glacial-Interglacial Sea Level Changes
Interglacial Sea Level
Greenland = 6 meters
West Ant. = 5 meters
East Ant. = 60 meters
Human impacts are HUGE
There isisaafundamental
fundamentalasymmetry
asymmetry
between
scales
There
between
the the
timetime
scales
that
thatclimate
the climate
reacts
to increases
in greenhouse
the
systemsystem
reacts to
increases
in greenhouse
gases and
gases and
scales
to recover
fromincreases.
such increases.
the the
timetime
scales
to recover
from such
Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes
Reduction CO2 missions sooner,
moves
in over
1000 these
years
delayed consequences downward and reduces the
Temperatures
time required to
stabilize the responses.
Stabilizes in about
500 Hundred years
Carbon Dioxide
Stabilizes in several
Hundred years
100 Years
Today
1000 Years
Tons
CO2
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Per Capita CO2 Emissions
5.3 Tons C
per American
U.S.
Europe
Asia
Africa
Lat
Amer
World
1 Ton C
for World
Energy-Income Inequity
20 000
Per Capita Income ($)
U.S.
10 000
Ireland
Haiti
0
12
20 00
Energy Use (Watts)
12 000
Population vs. CO2 Emissions
30 %
25 %
20 %
Percent Pop
15 %
Percent CO2
10 %
5%
0%
In dia and
SE Asia
Chin a &
ne ighb ors
Africa
La tin
Am erica
W.
Euro pe,
CA
E. Europe ,
N. Asia
USA
Japan ,
Au s, NZ
Midd le
Eas t
Projected Carbon Emissions
Conversions
Converting between carbon (C) and carbon dioxide (CO2) units:
1 unit carbon (C) = 3.67 units carbon dioxide
Treaty Solutions
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)
Ultimate objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate
system.
The objective does not specify what these concentrations
should be, only that they reach a level that is not dangerous.
This acknowledges that there is currently no scientific
certainty about what a dangerous level would be. CO2 is
currently 381 ppm, goal is < 450 ppm.
Requires states to do GHG inventories, national reports.
Help for developing countries in meeting “incremental costs.”
Scientific processes continuing through IPCC.
Signed by 161 nations at the Earth Summit, June 1992; Ratified
by the required 50 nations, December 1993; Treaty took
effect, March 1994.
Response of the FCCC to Problems
The uncertainty problem.
It is an agreement for further action, allows nations to respond
flexibly, takes preliminary steps now.
The fairness issue.
It puts the puts share of the responsibility for battling climate
change -- and the lion's share of the bill -- on the rich
countries; recognizes the vulnerability of the LDCs.
The development issue.
It supports the concept of "sustainable development,”
promotes technology transfer and education.
The problem of other pressing problems.
It is a start, a commitment, and it is expandable as needs
arise. It links science and policy and seeks to share the
burden widely.
Pressures to Conform
FCCC creates its own institutions for monitoring compliance.
Parties to the Convention must regularly provide information
on their performance to the Conference of the Parties
(COP).
Subsidiary bodies are created by the Convention to provide
expert advice and assessment (IPCC)
These mechanisms can provide incentives for a state to
comply with its obligations.
This is the so-called "institutional supervision" method where
a country's failure to meet its commitments affects not just
one other state, but the entire international community.
Conference of the Parties (COP) # 1
First high-level climate change meeting, Berlin, 1995.
First step in a long process of practical institution building.
What was on the agenda?
Review of national communications and need for future reports.
Adequacy of commitments. Is returning greenhouse gas
emissions to 1990 levels an "adequate" step?
Institutional arrangements: a permanent secretariat, treaty
implementation, scientific and technological advice, financial
arrangements.
Rules of procedure, including voting mechanisms.
COP 15 next week in Copenhagen
Kyoto Protocol (1997)
Commits industrialized nations to legally binding reductions in emissions
of 6 "greenhouse gases.”
US target 7% below 1990 levels during a "commitment period" between
2008-2012.
US stalling until developing countries also make commitments to
participate.
22-Oct.-2004 Russia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol.
US will not submit the protocol to the Senate for advice and consent,
thereby delaying indefinitely any possibility of ratification
What are the policy problems?
1. (the big problem): Scientists see a real risk that the climate
will change rapidly and dramatically over the coming
decades and centuries. Can we handle it?
2. If the consequences of a problem are uncertain, do you
ignore the problem or do you do something about it
anyway?
3. It's not fair (to developing countries).
4. If the whole world starts consuming more and living the
good life, can the planet stand the strain?
5. Who has the energy, time, or money left to deal with climate
change, when we have so many other problems like
poverty, disease, terrorism…
Economic Solutions
Economic Mechanisms
Transferable Permits on CO2
Idea is to set a quantitative limit on the global emissions
of a greenhouse gas and then allow emissions
permits to be traded like ordinary goods and services.
A conceptually identical approach is being used in the
US to limit the production of CFCs and SOx.
Proven to be cost-effective, but hard to monitor.
Reductions in CH4 may be an effective start.
Carbon tax has same result in the end as Cap and Trade
Focus on Carbon Tax
Could reduce global warming and use of fossil fuels.
Would have to include all fossil fuels.
Who gets the revenue? (Domestic or international)?
If international, who dispenses it?
Still, an effective way to remove CO2 from the air.
Such a fuel tax is regressive.
New taxes may not be offset by reductions elsewhere.
Moneys raised may not be used for environmental purposes.
Cannot predict response to it.
Would raise the price of crude oil.
Would have to be monitored carefully.
Hard to implement during an economic recession.
A Sustainable Energy Future
1. Taxes on non-renewable (fossil) fuels.
2. Economic incentives to reduce fossil fuel wastes.
3. Fines and penalties for polluters.
4. Legislation to mandate reduced emissions.
5. Conservation and efficiency
6. Research
On renewable energy sources, especially solar
Batteries for solar electric power and electric autos.
Long-distance, low-loss electric power transmission.
7. International Agreements -- U.S. should join and lead.
8. Personal lifestyle choices and changes
Mass transit and national transportation planning.
Bicycles and walking. Meatless meals.
Stabilization Wedges,
Socolow and Pacala