Transcript www.bcca.org

The Energy Challenge
Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
European Bahá'í Business Forum (EBBF)
http://www.ebbf.org
and
International Environment Forum (IEF)
http://www.bcca.org/ief
March 2006
Overview of the challenge
• Our industrial economy was built on cheap
energy
• Transportation, communications, trade,
agriculture, heating/cooling, consumer
lifestyle all depend on energy
• Energy demand is rising rapidly and the
supply is shrinking
• Adaptation will be extremely expensive
• Western material civilization is unsustainable
Unsustainability
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Warning signs
Energy crises
Economic fragility
Food insecurity
Water shortages
Terrorism, refugees
Natural, economic and social disasters
Developing countries
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Two thirds of future growth in energy demand is expected to
come from developed countries where at least 1.6 billion people
are without access to electricity in their homes.
Over half of people in developing countries still rely on biofuel,
including wood, dung and agricultural wastes, for cooking and
heating, most of which is burnt indoors.
Between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the fuel used in
households on biomass stoves is not fully burnt, triggering a wide
range of harmful air-borne pollutants.
Globally, indoor air pollution of fine particles from fuels like
charcoal is ranked in the top ten causes of mortality, causing up to
2.4 million premature deaths a year from respiratory problems
and heart attacks.
In homes burning biomass, particle levels can be between 300 to
3,000 microgrammes per cubic metre ( EU guideline 40 µg/m3).
GEO Year Book 2006 http://www.unep.org/geo/yearbook/
The Science of Energy
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Second Law of Thermodynamics: entropy
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All resources are limited on a finite planet
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Human civilization has reached planetary
limits
Growth cannot continue indefinitely
The human population is expected (barring
surprises – war, famine, pestilence) to reach
9 billion in mid-century and then decline
Planetary carrying capacity depends on
numbers and standard of living
The end of the fossil fuel era
• Consumption continues to grow at 1.1%/yr
• At present consumption rates, reserves of oil
will last 40 years, gas 67 years and coal 164
years
• Published reserves can increase through new
discoveries (declining) and new extraction
technologies
• Other constraints are investment cost,
environmental impact and insecurity in supply
• Massive investment in present infrastructure
creates great resistance to change
Growth in oil use
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World 1.1%/year
OECD 1.3%
World less economies in transition 2.1%
Latin America 2.8%
India 5.4%
China 7.5%
From 2001-2020, world oil consumption will
rise 56%, with OPEC production doubling
• Non-OPEC production has already peaked
• Oil provides 40% of world's primary energy
How much oil?
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Ultimate recoverable reserve 2000 Bb
Cumulative production 980 Bb
Reserves 827 Bb
Yet to find 153 Bb
Production peaks and starts to decline at half
of recoverable resource, ca. 2008
• Post-peak production will fall at about 2.7%
per year, dropping 75% in 30 years
• Athabaska tar sands (300Bb) and Orinoco
heavy oil (300Bb) face severe extraction
problems (and equal only 22 years current
consumption)
Alternative fossil fuels
• Coal – larger reserves but high mining
impact, less energy density, high pollution
and CO2 emissions
• Gas – less polluting, but reserves also
limited
• Methane hydrates in ocean sediments –
extraction difficulties, potent greenhouse gas
Our dependence on oil
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Road transport, shipping, aviation
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Chemical feedstocks, plastics, synthetics
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Industrial production
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Agricultural fertilizers
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Mechanized agriculture
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Electricity generation
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Heating and cooling, lighting
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Town planning, suburban lifestyle
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Global trade, food distribution
Energy and population
80% of global energy comes from fossil fuels
The world population has expanded sixfold,
exactly in parallel with oil production
Can the world maintain such a population
without cheap energy?
What will happen if it cannot?
Another big question
Even if we could exploit every
fossil fuel reserve, do we
really want to?
The Biosphere
• Delicately balanced – conditions for life
created by life
• Complex systems and feedback
mechanisms poorly understood
• Humanity now captures one quarter of
primary productivity
• We lack management mechanisms at the
planetary scale
Fossil fuels and CO2
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Fuel oil produces 2.9 tonnes of CO2 from
burning 1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe)
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Natural gas produces 2.1 tonnes CO2 per toe
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Coal produces 3.8 tonnes CO2 per toe
Greenhouse gases and climate
change
• Greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane,
water vapour, etc) trap heat in the atmosphere
• The CO2 level in the atmosphere is rising rapidly
as we burn fossil fuels
• More heat in the atmosphere changes air
circulation and climate
• Effects will be highly variable around the world,
and are not easily predictable
The latest evidence suggests that the worst
predictions may be realized
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The Gulf Stream has recently slowed by 30%
Half of the permafrost in the Arctic is expected to melt
by 2050 and 90% before 2100
Major parts of the Arctic Ocean were ice-free in 2005 for
the first time
Greenland glaciers have doubled their rate of flow in the
last two years
The rate of sea level rise has doubled over the last 150
years to 2 mm per year, and melting in the Antarctic is
expected to add a further 4mm/yr
We may be approaching a tipping point where runaway
climate change would be catastrophic
Controlling greenhouse gases?
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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(Rio, 1992)
Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gases
– return emissions to 1990 levels by 2012
CO2 emissions rose 4.5% in 2004 to 27.5 b
tonnes, 26% higher than 1990
China and India have doubled CO2 production
since 1990, US +20%, Australia +40%
US released 5.8, China 4.5, Europe 3.3, India 1.1
billion tonnes of CO2 in 2004
The Nuclear Option?
• Research costs and development highly
subsidized, including by military uses
• High energy input in construction and fuel
fabrication, not carbon free
• Risks of accidents uninsurable
• Decommissioning costs not included
• UK unable to privatize its nuclear industry
• Waste disposal costs imposed on future
generations
• No safe long-term disposal yet found
• Fusion still "40 years" off
New Energy Technologies
• Hydrogen
• Fuel cells
• Metal nano-fuels
still require a source of energy, fossil or
renewable
The economics of energy
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Hidden subsidies are frequent
Price instabilities produce windfall profits
Reserve estimates are notoriously unreliable
The market is politically manipulated
As with any addiction, users will pay anything
to maintain their habit
Investment impact
Carbon Disclosure Project
Representing a group of 211 investors with $31
trillion of assets under management, i.e more
than 50% of the world’s invested assets, the
Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) has invited
1,800 companies worldwide to disclose
of investment-relevant information concerning
their greenhouse gas emissions. The fourth
iteration of such a request, this year’s round will
involve over twice as many companies as the
previous rounds.
See: http://www.cdproject.net
Investment in developing
countries
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of
the Kyoto Protocol will make available over
$3bn of carbon funds currently managed by
public and private bodies for investment in
projects that cut emissions of greenhouse
gases. This new source of finance for clean
energy projects in Africa and other developing
countries is putting them firmly back on the map
for clean energy and forestry project finance.
See: Carbon finance for Africa - An Investors' Guide
http://www.africapractice.com/case.html
The politics of fossil fuels
• Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a few
regions, accentuating the unjust distribution of
wealth
• The struggle to control reserves and access is
a major source of conflict
• Since access to energy is a vital national
interest, these problems will increase as
supplies diminish
• Only global management assuring just
distribution of energy resources can resolve
this situation
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate
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US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, China, July 2005
(45% of world population)
Consume 45% of world energy, produce 52% of CO2, with
both expected to double by 2025
Agreement to develop and share cleaner, more efficient
technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
provide secure energy supplies
Focus on carbon sequestration
Pact among major coal producing/consuming countries
(China plans 560 new coal-fired plants, India 213)
25% of global CO2 emissions come from coal-fired power
stations
How do we go back to life without
fossil fuels?
Or can we go forward toward a new integrated
approach to energy capture and efficient use?
SOLAR ENERGY
The only long-term, large-scale
energy source
Bio-fuels
• Wood
• Dung, animal wastes
• Ethanol
• Biodiesel
• Coconut, palm, rapeseed oils
• Bagass
• Biogas
• Chicken shit
but their production will compete with food
production and other land uses
Technologies for solar energy capture
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Photovoltaic
Solar water heaters
Parabolic reflectors (need steering)
Tubular captors with reflectors
Greenhouse effect
Passive solar heating in buildings
Indirect solar power
• Water – hydroelectric power is widely used
where resources permit
• Wind – commercially viable as part of a mix
of energy sources
• Tides – selected locations
• Waves – engineering challenges
• OTEC ocean thermal energy conversion
• Chimney effect (air thermal gradients)
Energy efficiency
– Reduce the resources and energy
necessary to maintain our standard of
living
– Factor 4 (von Weizsäcker, Lovins et Lovins, 1997. Factor four: Doubling
wealth – halving resource use. Earthscan, London)
– Factor 10
– Targets adopted by OECD
– Examples: more efficient appliances,
reduce heat loss from buildings, public
transport
Energy Wastage in the Global Electricity Sector (2002)
Total Electricity Generation Worldwide (TWh)
(source: International Energy Agency 2002)
World Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE) http://www.localpower.org
Centralized versus decentralized
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The Western economic system has
encouraged centralized energy systems
(large generating stations, large dams, large
refineries, extensive power grids)
Transmission produces large losses
Small-scale systems close to users do not
interest large corporations
Solar energy and most renewables are
inherently decentralized
The economic system biases technology
choice
Some strategies
• Iceland hydrogen economy
• Sweden – plan for oil-free economy within
15 years
• In Geneva 85% of electricity is from
renewable sources
• Hawaii Energy for Tomorrow programme
(efficiency, renewables, biofuels, hydrogen
technology, consumer incentives)
A US strategy to stabilize CO2 emissions
Pacala, Stephen and Robert Socolow (2004), Science 305:968
15 proven technologies, including:
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Carbon sequestration
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Better energy efficiency in buildings
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Doubling fuel efficiency of cars
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Wind turbines
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Clean coal technologies
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+700 gigawatts of nuclear power
to stabilize CO2 at today's level by 2054
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Key areas for action:
• Energy efficiency – first priority
• Energy mix: promote the use of all non-emitting
technologies, including nuclear energy
• Carbon capture and storage: bridge from fossil
fuels to new energy systems
• Enabling energy technology research and
development
• Support to developing countries: technology
transfer to leap-frog to modern energy
technologies
http://www.wbcsd.org
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
PROJECTS AND REPORTS
The GHG Protocol – A Corporate Accounting and
Reporting Standard
Clean Development Mechanism and the new GHG
Protocol for Project Accounting
Sector projects:
• Electricity Utilities
• Sustainable Forest Products Initiative
• Sustainable Cement Initiative
• Mobility
• Energy Efficiency in Buildings
http://www.wbcsd.org
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Long term policy framework:
• Predictability
• Efficiency-based objectives on climate change,
energy, economic development and trade
• Wide participation by governments with fairness,
equity and common but differentiated
responsibilities
• Use of market-based mechanisms and
instruments – long-term value for carbon
• Engaging the capital markets
• Changing consumer behaviour
http://www.wbcsd.org
Barriers to change
“… the biggest obstacles to the take up of
technologies such as renewable
sources of energy and "clean coal" lie in
vested interests, cultural barriers to
change and simple lack of awareness.”
- Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, UK Meteorological Office from http://www.unepfi.org/ebulletin
Ways forward
Harness all available sources of energy on the
surface of the planet
Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits
Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock
Create global governance mechanisms to manage
this global challenge
Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with
equity and justice
Building a sustainable energy
future is a major challenge for the
present generation
Thank you