Transcript Climate change and energy

Energy for
Sustainable Development
AIESEC-EBBF Seminar, Acuto
Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
European Bahá'í Business Forum (EBBF)
http://www.ebbf.org
and
International Environment Forum (IEF)
http://www.bcca.org/ief
February 2008
Overview of the challenge
• Our industrial economy was built on
cheap energy
• Transportation, communications, trade,
agriculture, heating/cooling, consumer
lifestyle all depend on energy
• Energy demand is rising rapidly and the
supply is shrinking
• Adaptation will be extremely expensive
• Western material civilization is
unsustainable
Energy demand 2005-2030
• Energy needs will grow 50% by 2030
• 45% of this in India and China
• Coal demand will increase 73%, mostly
in India and China
• CO2 emissions will rise 57% (2/3 from
US, China, India, Russia)
IEA/OECD World Energy Outlook 2007
Developing countries
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Two thirds of future growth in energy demand is expected to come
from developing countries where at least 1.6 billion people are without
access to electricity in their homes.
Over half of people in developing countries still rely on biofuel,
including wood, dung and agricultural wastes, for cooking and heating,
most of which is burnt indoors.
Between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the fuel used in households
on biomass stoves is not fully burnt, triggering a wide range of harmful
air-borne pollutants.
Globally, indoor air pollution of fine particles from fuels like charcoal is
ranked in the top ten causes of mortality, causing up to 2.4 million
premature deaths a year from respiratory problems and heart attacks.
In homes burning biomass, particle levels can be between 300 to
3,000 microgrammes per cubic metre ( EU guideline 40 µg/m3).
GEO Year Book 2006 http://www.unep.org/geo/yearbook
The Science of Energy
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Second Law of Thermodynamics: entropy
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All resources are limited on a finite planet
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Human civilization has reached planetary limits
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Growth cannot continue indefinitely
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The human population is expected (barring
surprises – war, famine, pestilence) to reach 9
billion in mid-century and then decline
Planetary carrying capacity depends on
numbers and standard of living
The end of the fossil fuel era
• Consumption continues to grow at 1.1%/yr
• At present consumption rates, conventional
reserves of oil will last 40 years, gas 60 years
and coal 165-285 years
• Published reserves can increase through new
discoveries (declining) and new extraction
technologies, but costs tripled 1999-2006
• Other constraints are investment cost,
environmental impact and insecurity in supply
• Massive investment in present infrastructure
creates great resistance to change
Growth in oil use
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World 1.1%/year
OECD 1.3%
World less economies in transition 2.1%
Latin America 2.8%
India 5.4%
China 7.5% energy demand will double by 2020
From 2001-2020, world oil consumption will rise
56%, with OPEC production doubling
• Non-OPEC production has already peaked
• Oil provides 40% of world's primary energy
How much oil?
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(reserve estimates are highly controversial)
Ultimate recoverable reserve 2000 Bb
Cumulative production 980 Bb
Reserves 827 Bb, yet to find 153 Bb
Production peaks and starts to decline at half of
recoverable resource, ca. 2008-2012
Post-peak production will fall at about 2.7% per
year, dropping 75% in 30 years
Athabaska tar sands (300Bb) and Orinoco
heavy oil (300Bb) are environmentally
damaging to extract (and equal only 22 years
current consumption)
The demand-production gap
• Present output 85m b/d, demand growing
1.1m b/d, spare OPEC capacity 3.5m b/d
• There are access and technical limits to
increasing production above 100m b/d
• Oil production is declining in 33 of 48
largest oil producing countries
• Forecasts of 116-118m b/d by 2030 seem
unrealistic to industry insiders
• Prices will rise to cut demand to fit available
production
(Ed Crooks and javier Blas, Financial Times, 9 November 2007)
Alternative fossil fuels
• Coal – larger reserves but high mining impact,
less energy density, high pollution and CO2
emissions
• Gas – less polluting, but reserves also limited
• Methane hydrates in ocean sediments –
extraction difficulties, potent greenhouse gas
How much Coal?
• Official reserves 847 billion tonnes, but
hard coal reserves down 25% since
1990; some countries have not adjusted
reserves for decades
• Production (2007) 6 bt, should rise 70%
by 2030
• Reserves to production ratio: 277 yrs in
2000, 155 yrs in 2005, 144 yrs in 2006
• Global consumption up 35% 2000-2006,
but price rise has not increased reserves
• Coal output could peak as early as 2025
Our dependence on fossil fuels
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Road transport, shipping, aviation
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Chemical feedstocks, plastics, synthetics
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Energy/raw materials for industrial production
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Agricultural fertilizers
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Mechanized agriculture
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Electricity generation
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Heating and cooling, lighting
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Town planning, suburban lifestyle
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Global trade, food distribution
Energy and Population
80% of global energy comes from fossil
fuels, which we must stop burning
to reduce global warming
The world population has expanded sixfold,
exactly in parallel with oil production
Can the world maintain such a population
without the cheap energy from fossil fuels?
What will happen if it cannot?
The question energy planners
never ask:
Even if we could exploit every
fossil fuel reserve, can we really
afford to cause so much global
Fossil fuels and CO2
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Fuel oil produces 2.9 tonnes of CO2 from
burning 1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe)
Natural gas produces 2.1 tonnes CO2
per toe
Coal produces 3.8 tonnes CO2 per toe
Coal has a significant impact on
global warming
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Major coal producing/ consuming countries:
US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, India,
China, have 45% of world population,
consume 45% of world energy, produce
52% of CO2, with both expected to double
by 2025
China plans 560 new coal-fired power
plants, India 213
25% of global CO2 emissions come from
coal-fired power stations
Controlling greenhouse gases?
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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(Rio, 1992)
Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gases
– return emissions to 1990 levels by 2012
CO2 emissions rose 4.5% in 2004 to 27.5 b
tonnes, 26% higher than 1990
China and India have doubled CO2 production
since 1990, US +20%, Australia +40%
US released 5.8, China 4.5, Europe 3.3, India 1.1
billion tonnes of CO2 in 2004
The Nuclear Option?
• Cannot scale up to make a significant difference
• Uranium reserves are expected to be exhausted in 60100 years
• Research costs and development highly subsidized,
including by military uses
• High energy input in construction and fuel fabrication,
not carbon free
• Risks of accidents uninsurable
• Decommissioning costs not included (UK $140b)
• UK unable to privatize its nuclear industry
• High waste disposal costs are imposed on future
generations, with no safe long-term disposal yet found
• Fusion still "40 years" off
New Energy Technologies
• Hydrogen
• Fuel cells
• Metal nano-fuels
still require a source of energy, fossil or
renewable
Investment challenges
• The International Energy Agency
estimates needed investment in energy
infrastructure at $22,000bn by 2030 to
replace ageing capacity and meet
growing demand (2% global GDP, $130
per person per year)
• Responding to climate change would
add $2,000bn
Problems of energy economics
• Hidden subsidies are frequent
• Price instabilities produce windfall profits and
discourage investments
• Reserve estimates are notoriously unreliable
• The market is politically manipulated; 75% of
oil reserves are under government control
• As with any addiction, users will pay anything
to maintain their habit
The business community is worried
Carbon Disclosure Project
The Carbon Disclosure Project,
representing a group of 225 investors with
$31 trillion of assets under management, i.e
more than 50% of the world’s invested
assets, has invited 2,100 companies
worldwide to disclose investment-relevant
information concerning their greenhouse
gas emissions.
See: http://www.cdproject.net
Investment in developing countries
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of
the Kyoto Protocol will make available over
$3bn of carbon funds currently managed by
public and private bodies for investment in
projects that cut emissions of greenhouse
gases. This new source of finance for clean
energy projects in Africa and other developing
countries is putting them firmly back on the map
for clean energy and forestry project finance.
See: Carbon finance for Africa - An Investors' Guide
http://www.africapractice.com/case.html
The politics of fossil fuels
• Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a few
regions, accentuating the unjust distribution of
wealth
• The struggle to control reserves and access is
a major source of conflict
• Since access to energy is a vital national
interest, these problems will increase as
supplies diminish
• Only global management assuring just
distribution of energy resources can resolve
this situation
How do we go back to life
without fossil fuels?
Or can we go forward toward a new integrated
approach to energy capture and efficient use?
HOW DOES NATURE DO IT?
Energy management in the
coral reef ecosystem:
• Efficient solar energy capture by generating
large surface area
• Efficient energy transfers within system,
symbioses
• Little waste, effective recycling
• High complexity and integration
• Maximizes total productivity, not just most
productive
Solar Energy
The only long-term, large-scale
energy source
Plants are highly efficient
solar energy devices
Bio-fuels
• Wood
• Dung, animal wastes
• Ethanol
• Biodiesel
• Coconut, palm, rapeseed oils
• Bagass (sugar cane waste)
• Biogas
but their production will compete with food
production and other land uses
Problems with biofuels
• Most present biofuel crops require high
energy inputs to grow, harvest and
process, with little net CO2 benefit
(maize ethanol 0-12%, soy biodiesel 41%)
• Competition with food production,
raising food prices
• Pressure to clear tropical forest for oil
palm and soybeans
• Area not sufficient to meet present fuel
needs (US only 5%)
Technologies for
solar energy capture
• Photovoltaic
• Solar water heaters
• Parabolic reflectors (need steering)
• Tubular captors with reflectors
• Greenhouse effect
• Passive solar heating in buildings
but solar energy is diffuse, not concentrated
Indirect solar power
• Water – hydroelectric power is widely used
where resources permit
• Wind – commercially viable as part of a mix
of energy sources
• Tides – selected locations
• Waves – engineering challenges
• OTEC ocean thermal energy conversion
• Chimney effect (air thermal gradients)
Energy efficiency:
the first priority
– Reduce the resources and energy
necessary to maintain our standard of
living
– Factor 4 (von Weizsäcker, Lovins et Lovins, 1997. Factor four: Doubling wealth –
halving resource use. Earthscan, London)
– Factor 10
– Targets adopted by OECD
– Examples: more efficient appliances,
reduce heat loss from buildings, public
transport
Where does our electric energy come from?
Total Electricity Generation Worldwide (TWh)
(source: International Energy Agency 2002)
World Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE) http://www.localpower.org
Centralized versus decentralized
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The Western economic system has
encouraged centralized energy systems (large
generating stations, large dams, large
refineries, extensive power grids)
Transmission produces large losses
Small-scale systems close to users do not
interest large corporations
Solar energy and most renewables are
inherently decentralized
The economic system biases technology
choice
Some strategies
• Iceland hydrogen economy
• Sweden – plan for oil-free economy by
2020
• Sustainable electricity in Geneva 86%
• Village in Luxembourg
• Hawaii Energy for Tomorrow (efficiency,
renewables, biofuels, hydrogen technology,
consumer incentives)
A US strategy to stabilize CO2 emissions
Pacala, Stephen and Robert Socolow (2004), Science 305:968
15 proven technologies, including:
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Carbon sequestration
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Better energy efficiency in buildings
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Doubling fuel efficiency of cars
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Wind turbines
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Clean coal technologies
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+700 gigawatts of nuclear power
to stabilize CO2 at today's level by 2054
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Key areas for action:
• Energy efficiency – first priority
• Energy mix: promote the use of all non-emitting
technologies, including nuclear energy
• Carbon capture and storage: bridge from fossil fuels
to new energy systems
• Enabling energy technology research and
development
• Support to developing countries: technology transfer
to leap-frog to modern energy technologies
http://www.wbcsd.org
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
The GHG Protocol – A Corporate Accounting and
Reporting Standard
Clean Development Mechanism and the new GHG
Protocol for Project Accounting
Sector projects:
• Electricity Utilities
• Sustainable Forest Products Initiative
• Sustainable Cement Initiative
• Mobility
• Energy Efficiency in Buildings
http://www.wbcsd.org
World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Long term policy framework:
• Predictability
• Efficiency-based objectives on climate change, energy,
economic development and trade
• Wide participation by governments with fairness,
equity and common but differentiated responsibilities
• Use of market-based mechanisms and instruments –
long-term value for carbon
• Engaging the capital markets
• Changing consumer behaviour
http://www.wbcsd.org
Barriers to change
“… the biggest obstacles to the take
up of technologies such as renewable
sources of energy and "clean coal" lie
in vested interests, cultural barriers to
change and simple lack of
awareness.”
- Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, UK Meteorological
Office from http://www.unepfi.org/ebulletin
The double challenge
“On current trends, ...humanity will need twice as
much energy as it uses today within 35 years....
Produce too little energy, say the economists,
and there will be price hikes and a financial
crash unlike any the world has ever known, with
possible resource wars, depression and famine.
Produce the wrong sort of energy, say the
climate scientists, and we will have more
droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide
economic disaster with runaway global warming.
John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February 2007, Energy supplement, p. 3
Ways forward
Harness all available sources of energy on the
surface of the planet
Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits
Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock
Create global governance mechanisms to manage
this global challenge
Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with
equity and justice
Things you can do
• Walk, bicycle or use public transport
• Make your personal residence energy
efficient (light bulbs, appliances,no
standby, heating/cooling, etc.)
• Choose electricity from renewable
sources if available
• Consume less, buy local
• Consider the energy implications of
everything you do
Building a sustainable energy
future is a major challenge for
your generation
Thank you