Transcript Global Warming and Geopolitics - Renewable Energy and Beyond

May 21, 2008
Global Warming and Geopolitics
Israel Klabin
F UNDAÇÃ O BRAS I LE I RA PARA O DE S E NV O LV I M E NTO S USTE NTÁV E L
Introduction
May 21, 2008
● “The process of acceleration of history”
● Recent changes shaping a new world
● Impacts of climate change
● Global responsibilities and global security
● Towards unsustainability
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Present Critical Environmental Issues
Climate change
● Global GHG emissions
● Increasing evidence of an already
changing climate
Water
● Water scarcity
● Poor groundwater quality
● Agricultural water use & pollution
Biodiversity &
renewable natural
resources
● Ecosystem deterioration
● Species loss
● Invasive alien species
● Destruction of tropical forests
● Illegal logging
● Ecosystem fragmentation
Air quality
● Urban air quality
May 21, 2008
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)
3
Climate Change
Pressures on Current Consumption Standards
May 21, 2008
26% increase
Population
growth
8.2
6.5
Population 2005
(Billion)
Population 2030
(Billion)
62% increase
Energy
demand
increase
722
446
Energy demand 2005
(Quadrillion BTU)
● The economic prospects of many of
the poorest countries are
threatened by the unsustainable use
of natural resources
● Uncontrolled pollution in rapidlygrowing cities
● Impacts of climate change in
different ecosystems
Energy demand 2030
(Quadrillion BTU)
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)
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Impacts on Different Ecosystems
Temperature Increases
400 ppm CO2e
5%
May 21, 2008
95%
450 ppm CO2e
550 ppm CO2e
650 ppm CO2e
750 ppm CO2e
Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0°C
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Stern Review Final Report (2006)
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Impacts on Different Ecosystems
Water
0°C
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
May 21, 2008
5°C
more than a billion people
will likely suffer water
shortages
glaciers disappear;
threats to water
supplies
greater than 30%
decrease in runoff in
the Mediterranean and
Southern Africa
increased sea level
threatens London,
Shanghai, New York,
Tokyo and Hong Kong,
Tel Aviv
Stern Review Final Report (2006)
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Impacts on Different Ecosystems
Food
0°C
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
May 21, 2008
5°C
falling crop yields in many developing regions
strong
impacts in
Sahel region
rising number of people at
risk of hunger in Africa and
West Asia
rising crop yields in high
latitude
entire regions
experience major
declines in crop
yields
yields in some developed
regions decline
Stern Review Final Report (2006)
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Impacts on Different Ecosystems
Ecosystems
0°C
1°C
2°C
coral reefs
irreversibly damaged
3°C
4°C
May 21, 2008
5°C
extensive droughts
and collapse of the
Western Amazon
rainforest
impacts on ecosystems that will be unable to maintain
current form
extinction of species
(up to 20-50%)
Stern Review Final Report (2006)
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Critical Issues
Geography X Geology
May 21, 2008
OPEC + Russia
OECD + BIC
Others
In 2006, the 12 member countries of OPEC, together with Russia had 82% of the world’s proven
conventional oil reserves but consumed only 12% of the world’s oil, whereas the countries of the
OECD, together with BIC (Brazil, India and China) had 8 % of all reserves but consumed 71% of all
oil
Source: Compiled from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (2007)
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Critical Issues
Impacts of Global Climate Change on Geopolitics
● Countries are competing for energy
derived from fossil fuel and at the same
time are trying to conserve energy
● Developing countries have increased
the demand for energy, provoking new
alliances, conflicts and threats for
developed countries
May 21, 2008
● Oil consumers paid US$4 billion to US$5
billion more for crude oil per day in
2007 than they did five years ago,
pumping more than US$2 trillion into
the coffers of oil companies and oil
producing nations
● That fact alone will change the global
economy and the centers of economic
power
● New strategies are already being shaped
on how to face stronger and betterequipped “enemies”
Source: The Geopolitics of Energy-Carlos Pascual, Brookings Institution (2008)
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Critical Issues
Security Risks
● International
May 21, 2008
● National
● It is more likely that many states
will collapse due to rivalries
interstate on regional and global
levels
● The national security consequences
of climate change should be fully
integrated into national security and
national defense strategies
● Adaptation measures in one country
may become a potential threat for
neighboring countries, for example:
water basins
● Military leaders know they cannot
wait for certainty
Source: The Geopolitics of Climate Change-FOI, The
Swedish Defense Reaserch Agency (2007)
● Failing to act because a warning
isn’t precise enough is
unacceptable, according to their
view
Source: The National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
The CNA Corporation / Center for Naval Analysis, USA (2007)
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Potential Corrective Measures
Mitigation from the Perspective of Security
May 21, 2008
● Security should be considered indivisible and global in relation to mitigation of
climate change
● A comprehensive view of common security must take economic, societal aspects
and ecological impacts from climate change into account
● International agencies should be capable of overruling political and military
conflicts due to mitigation and adaptation that becomes necessary as a
consequence of climate change
Source: The Geopolitics of Climate Change-FOI, The Swedish Defense Reaserch Agency (2007)
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Potential Corrective Measures
Policy Responses to Climate Change
May 21, 2008
● Policy responses to climate change, such as carbon taxes, cap-and-trade systems,
and tougher efficiency and fuel standards, are of very high priority
● Widespread deployment of new energy technologies, in addition to energy
conservation, are the most important tools to respond to the challenge of
climate change
● Broad, market-based incentives in the private sector to promote technological
advances are imperative
Source: “Facing the Hard Truths about Energy” – National Petroleum Council (2007)
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Potential Corrective Measures
Mitigation Action
May 21, 2008
● The more countries that participate in mitigation action for climate change, the
cheaper it will be to curb global emissions
● If OECD countries alone implement a carbon tax starting at US$ 25/tonn of CO 2 in
2008, this would lead to a 43% reduction in OECD greenhouse gas emissions.
However, global emissions would still be 38% higher in 2050 compared to the 2000
levels
● If Brazil, China, India and Russia follow suit with the same policy in 2020, and the
rest of the world in 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 could be
brought down to the 2000 levels (0% increase)
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)
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Potential Corrective Measures
Case Studies
May 21, 2008
● Japan
Imports 16% less oil today than in 1973, although the economy has more than
doubled through converting oil-reliant electricity generation system into one
powered by natural gas, nuclear energy or alternative fuels
● Guyana
Proposed to enter into a bilateral agreement or be a part of a market based carbon
trading regime to insure the integrity of its native tropical forests through avoided
deforestation (REDD)
● European Union
Several actions have been taken: binding targets for 2020 to reduce GHG emissions
and global energy use by 20%; ensure 20% of renewable energy sources; carbon
pricing through the Emissions Trading Scheme and energy taxation
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)
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Final Remarks
Four Geopolitical Blocs on Climate Debate
● Europe and Japan: support the
adoption of binding emissions targets
● United States: supports setting a longterm goal and nationally binding
medium-term commitments, but not an
internationally binding treaty that holds
countries collectively to account
May 21, 2008
● Emerging market economies led by
China and India: have resisted any form
of binding international targets, and
have focused their demands on
technology dissemination and financing
for the cost differential for clean
technologies
● Other developing countries: bearing
the brunt of flooding, desertification
and other catastrophic effects of
climate change, their demands focus on
financing to adapt to the impacts of
climate change
Source: The Geopolitics of Energy-Carlos Pascual, Brookings Institution (2008)
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Conclusion
May 21, 2008
● The Bali Conference produced a step forward
● All countries agreed on the principle that a GHG emissions cap is
necessary
● Discussions are now directed to the distribution of responsibilities among
developed and developing nations
● Also on the table is curbing deforestation and the funding of research on
renewables
● The moment requires statementship and solidarity
“We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools”
Martin Luther King Jr.
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Contact
May 21, 2008
Israel Klabin
President
FBDS Board of Trustees
[email protected]
FBDS — Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development
Rua Eng. Álvaro Niemeyer, 76 – São Conrado
22610-180 Rio de Janeiro – RJ BRAZIL
Tel: +55 (21) 3322-4520 – Fax: +55 (21) 3322-5903
Site: www.fbds.org.br
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