Transcript International Energy Agency

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Transportation and Global
Emissions to 2030
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
Head, Economic Analysis Division
World Primary Energy Demand
7 000
Oil
6 000
Mtoe
5 000
Natural gas
4 000
Coal
3 000
Other renewables
2 000
Nuclear power
Hydro power
1 000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix,
while oil remains the leading fuel
Increase in World Primary Energy
Demand by Fuel
2 500
2 000
Mtoe
1 500
1 000
500
0
1971-2002
Coal
Oil
2002-2030
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other
Oil grows most in absolute terms, underpinned by strong
demand for transport – especially in developing regions
Increase in World Oil Demand,
2002-2030
22
17
mb/d
12
7
2
-3
OECD
Power generation
Non-OECD
Industry
Transport
Other
Most of the increase in oil demand comes from the transport
sector – especially in OECD countries
Incremental Oil Demand in the
Transport Sector, 2002-2030
40
mb/d
30
20
10
0
Total oil demand
Oil transport
Non-OECD oil
transport
Transport oil demand in Non-OECD countries will increase
three times more than in the OECD
Road Vehicle Stock
800
million
600
400
200
0
2002
OECD
2030
non-OECD
The vehicle stock increases much faster in non-OECD regions,
though most vehicles will still be in the OECD in 2030
New Vehicles Fuel Efficiency, 2002
litres per 100 km
10
5
0
OECD North
America
China
India
Japan
OECD
Europe
Scope for improvement in new vehicles fuel efficiency is
generally greater in developing countries
Environmental
Implications
CO2 emissions, 1971-2030
20 000
Mt of CO 2
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
1970
1980
OECD
1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries,
overtaking OECD in the 2020s
Growth in World Energy Demand & CO2
Emissions
average annual growth rate
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1971-2002
Primary energy demand
2002-2030
Emissions
Average carbon content of primary energy increases
slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends
CO2 emissions by sector,
1990-2030
18 000
million tonnes of CO 2
16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1990
Power Generation
2002
2010
Other Transformation
2020
Industry
Transport
2030
Other Sectors
CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are
expected to increase the most
Incremental CO2 emissions in the
Transport Sector, 2002-2030
million tonnes of CO
2
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
Total CO2 emissions
World transport
emissions
Non-OECD transport
emissions
Transport accounts for a quarter of total CO2 emissions
increase, most of which will come from Non-OECD
Vehicle stock and emissions in
China
700
150
600
120
400
90
300
60
million
Mt of CO 2
500
200
30
100
0
0
1980
1990
2002
Oil CO2 emissions
2010
2020
2030
Vehicle stock (right axis)
Vehicle stock will quadruple in the next 30 years leading
to a threefold increase in CO2 emissions
World Alternative Policy
Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
Main Policies for Transport
Improve vehicle fuel efficiency
(e.g. strengthen of US CAFE
standards, prolongation of Chinese
standards)
Increased sales of alternative fuel
vehicles and fuels
(e.g. biofuels in Europe, Brazil)
Mode switching
(e.g. increased high speed rail in
Japan)
World Transport Oil Demand
40
2003
35
mb/d
30
25
20
15
1971
17 000
22 000
27 000
32 000
37 000
42 000
47 000
52 000
GDP (billion 2000 US$ using PPPs)
Global oil demand for transport increases very closely in
line with GDP
Concluding remarks
 World energy demand in transport will climb
faster than any other end-use sector
 On current policies, well over 90% of all
energy used for transport will be in form of
oil products
 Oil demand increase in transport will be
three times higher in developing countries
than in the OECD
 Share of transport in global CO2 emissions is
set to increase
 New government policies can alter these
trends significantly