Transcript 1. Peak in emissions

Budapest, 19 October 2015
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Energy & climate change today
 A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fast
approaching – COP21 in Paris in December 2015
 Momentum is building:
 Historic US-China joint announcement; EU 2030 targets agreed
 Developed & developing countries are putting forward new pledges to
reduce emissions
 Many energy companies & investors are starting to engage
 Energy production & use accounts for two-thirds of global
greenhouse-gas emissions
 Energy sector must cut emissions, while powering economic
growth, boosting energy security & increasing energy access
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Energy emissions stall but economic
engine keeps running
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Gt 35
Global economic
downturn
30
Dissolution of
Soviet Union
25
20
15
10
5
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
For the first time, energy-related CO2 emissions stalled
despite the global economy expanding by 3%
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2014
Emissions burden moves over time
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions by region
Gt 500
400
2015-2040
300
1890-2014
200
100
United European
States
Union
China
Russia
Japan
India
Africa
Past emissions are important, although the source of emissions
shifts with changes in the global economy
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National pledges build towards
a global agreement
Submitted INDCs cover nearly 90% of energy-related GHG emissions,
with implications for future energy & emissions trends
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Climate pledges shift the
energy sector
 One-quarter of the world’s energy supply is low carbon in 2030;
energy intensity improves three-times faster than the last decade
 Renewables reach nearly 60% of new capacity additions in the
power sector; two-thirds of additions are in China, EU, US & India
 Natural gas is the only fossil-fuel that increases its share of the
global energy mix
 Total coal demand in the US, Europe & Japan contracts by 45%,
while the growth in India’s coal use slows by one-quarter
 Climate pledges for COP21 are the right first step towards
meeting the climate goal
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What does the energy sector
need from COP21?
 The IEA proposal for COP21:
1. Peak in emissions – set the conditions which will achieve an
early peak in global energy-related emissions
2. Five-year revision – review contributions regularly, to test the
scope to lift the level of ambition
3. Lock in the vision – translate the established climate goal into
a collective long-term emissions goal
4. Track the transition – establish a process for tracking energy
sector achievements
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1. Peak in emissions:
IEA strategy to raise climate ambition
Gt CO2-eq
Global energy-related GHG emissions
Savings by measure, 2030
40
INDC Scenario
35
Fossil-fuel
subsidy reform
Upstream methane
reductions
10%
Energy
efficiency
15%
Bridge Scenario
49%
30
Renewables
investment
25
17%
9%
Reducing
inefficient coal
20
2000
2014
2020
2025
2030
Five measures – shown in a “Bridge Scenario” – achieve a peak in emissions
around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth
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1. Peak in emissions:
Bridging strategy is flexible across regions
GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario,
relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030
Russia
European Union
China
United States
Middle East
India
Efficiency
Inefficient coal plants
Renewables
Methane reductions
Fossil-fuel subsidies
Latin America
Southeast Asia
Africa
The measures in the Bridge Scenario apply flexibly across regions, with energy
efficiency and renewables as key measures worldwide
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2. Five-year revision:
World’s carbon budget is shrinking
World’s remaining carbon budget
Today
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
A five-year review cycle would enable pledges to keep pace with energy sector
innovation; building ambition before the carbon budget is consumed
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3. Lock in the vision:
What more does it take for 2 °C?
75
2 100
50
1 400
25
700
2015
2020 2025
Capacity
Solar PV
additions
2030 2035
2040
Capital costs
Solar PV
(right axis)
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
2015
2020 2025
Vehicle sales
Total
Internal combustion
Electric
2030 2035
2040
Battery costs
Electric vehicles
(right axis)
An emissions goal would give greater clarity & certainty to the energy sector,
strengthening the case for RD&D investment & technology transfer
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Dollars per kWh
2 800
Million
100
Cost reductions & deployment of
electric vehicles
Dollars per kW
GW
Cost reductions & deployment of
all solar PV
4. Track the transition:
Impact of pledges must be monitored
500
400
-42%
300
8
6
-43%
Residential
kWh per m2
600
Transport
litres per 100 km
g CO2 per kWh
Power
8
6
-40%
4
4
2
2
2030
200
100
CO2 intensity
Average fuel
consumption
of new cars
Lighting intensity
of buildings
Energy sector indicators are needed to track the low-carbon transition;
IEA identifies key metrics to monitor energy sector achievements
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2013
Conclusions
 Pledges are not yet enough to achieve our climate goal, but are
a basis from which to build ambition
 Companies that do not anticipate stronger energy & climate
policies risk being at a competitive disadvantage
 For COP21, the IEA proposes four key energy sector outcomes:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Target a near-term peak in emissions
Five-year revision, to test the scope for raising ambition
Lock in the vision by setting a long-term emissions goal
Track the transition in the energy sector
 Climate change will lead the agenda at the IEA’s Ministerial
meeting on 17-18 November 2015
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www.worldenergyoutlook.org/energyclimate
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