Transcript final energy demand

APEC ENERGY DEMAND & SUPPLY OUTLOOK
4th Edition
～ Case of Japan ～
APERC Workshop, Bali
16 November, 2009
Norihiro Okumura
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
OUTLINE
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Economy and Assumptions
Final Energy Demand
Primary Energy Supply
Electricity Generation Mix
CO2 Emissions
Challenges and Implications
ECONOMY & ASSUMPTIONS
 Japan’s GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of
1.2% between 2005 and 2030.
 Japan’s population is expected to reduce over the outlook
period, declining at an average rate of 0.4% between 2005 and
2030.
FINAL ENERGY DEMAND
MTOE
Industry
400
360
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Transport
Others
Non-Energy
Industry
100%
37
38
38
34
90%
Others
Non-Energy
10.9%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
9.9%
29.8%
33.0%
34.7%
37.5%
40.3%
26.9%
26.1%
23.7%
21.1%
34.4%
29.4%
28.5%
28.2%
28.8%
1990
2000
2005
2015
2030
80%
33
116
123
134
91
138
70%
60%
50%
76
Transport
95
92
84
72
25.0%
40%
30%
20%
105
103
101
100
98
10%
0%
1990
2000
2005
2015
2030
 Japan’s final energy demand in 2030 will be 3.4% less than in
2005 ( an average annual decrease of 0.1%).
 Energy demand is projected to decline in the industry sector (by
0.09% a year), transport sector (1.0%) and non-energy sector
(0.4%)
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
NRE
Coal
600
500
MTOE
400
8
53
8
44
10
84
8
66
10
79
7
71
12
14
110
126
8
90
8
99
300
200 254
251
230
200
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
NRE
100%
90%
11.9%
80%
9.9%
70%
15.9%
15.0%
12.5%
13.4%
19.7%
16.2%
60%
50%
262
Oil
57.3%
40%
49.7%
47.4%
22.8%
17.8%
41.3%
36.2%
30%
100
0
20%
77
98
111
108
107
10%
17.4%
18.6%
21.0%
19.4%
19.4%
2000
2005
2015
2030
0%
1990
2000
2005
2015
2030
1990
 Japan’s primary energy supply is projected to grow at an average
annual rate of 0.1% through to 2030.
 Japan’s energy intensity (TPES/GDP) is expected to improve by 24%
over the outlook period.
 Japan’s demand for oil is expected to decrease at an average annual
rate of 0.9%.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX
 Japan’s electricity demand is expected to increase at an average annual
rate of 0.8% over the outlook period to 2030.
 Against this backdrop of increasing electricity demand, nuclear is projected
to increase its share in the power generation mix from 28% in 2005 to 37% in
2030.
CO2 EMISSIONS
Electricity Generation
Refineries and Other Energy
Industry
Transport
Others
1400
1200
(Average Annual Percent Change)
Million Tonnes of CO2
190
190
193
1000 164
234
199
Change
in CO2 Intensity of Energy
239
236
223
116
99
108
387
435
444
438
2000
2005
2015
2030
800 218
400 115
200 335
181
259
268
600 253
19902005
235
127
20052015
20152030
20052030
-0.3%
-0.8%
-0.3%
-0.5%
Change
in Energy Intensity of GDP
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.2%
-1.0%
Change
in GDP
0.9%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
Total Change
0.9%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0
1990
 Japan’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are projected to decrease by
about 10%, from 1,238 million tonnes of CO2 in 2005 to 1,119 million tonnes of CO2 in
2030.
 This is in line with the economy’s falling energy demand, improving energy
efficiency and decreased dependence on fossil fuels.
CHALLENGES & IMPLICATIONS (1/2)
 Taking considerable care in diversifyin its energy sourcing
into the future.
 Taking advantage of coal in an environmentally
sustainable manner.
 Making every efforts to achieve a flexible LNG supply
structure with lower prices.
 Engaging in dialogue and cooperative endeavours with
other exporting and importing economies to increase energy
security.
 Intensifying every efforts to achieve the best energy mix.
CHALLENGES & IMPLICATIONS(2/2)
 Strengthening energy related administrative and policy
infrastructure.
Taking an active role in implementation of international
programmes such as CDM and JI.
 Providing a model of an economy acting to reduce CO2
emissions.
 Strengthening its world-leading role by means of
technological transfer of knowledge and experience .
Thank you
for your attention!
http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc/