Transcript Climate Change

Science in Government:
Challenges for the 21st Century
Professor John Beddington
Chief Scientific Adviser to UK Government and
Head of the UK Government Office for Science
Campaign for Science and Engineering, London
10 December 2009
The role of the Chief Scientific
Adviser to HM Government
• Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet
• Responsible for the quality of all
engineering and scientific advice across the
whole of Government
• Lead a network of departmental Chief
Scientific Advisers
• Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service
• Supported by the Government Office for Science who have a crossGovernment challenge and support role
Chief Scientific Advisers
Ministers
and Permanent Secretaries
Research
Councils
Engineering
institutions
e.g. RAEng
Chief Scientific
Advisers’
Committee (CSAC)
CSAC
Issues Group
Engineers x3
Social Scientists x4
Natural Scientists x8
Engineers x3
Social Scientists x1
Natural Scientists x5
Science
Institutions,
e.g. Royal Society
Government Scientists and Engineers
The Science and Engineering
Profession in Government
Role as Head of the Science and
Engineering Profession
• Ensuring the contribution of engineers
and scientists is recognised and
valued in Government
• Providing support to career
development activities and
professional skills
• Community of Scientists and
Engineers across Government
• To join the GSE contact:
[email protected]
[email protected]
Global challenges for science and
engineering in the 21st Century
 Urbanisation
 Energy demand
Counter-terrorism
 Population
Food security
Climate Change
Non-infectious
diseases
Infectious diseases
Alleviating poverty
 Water demand
Biodiversity
Mexico, 23 April 2009
• New variant A/H1N1 first confirmed.
• A random viral reassortment resulting in a new strain
- mixture of swine (pig), human and avian influenza viruses.
- Not clear where, when or in what host this occurred
- Virus may have been circulating in Mexico for some time
• Reassortments happen all the time. Occasionally the new virus
- May become more transmissible
- May become more severe
- May switch host target.
Image of HN1N virus
Source – US CDC influenza laboratory
Day 2
(from official confirmation of the first identified case in Mexico)
Day 4
Day 8
Day 16
28 Days later
Global situation: mid-November
Using science to manage Swine
Flu in the UK government
Civil Contingencies Committee in COBR
Scientific Advisory Group for
Emergencies
(SAGE)
Clinical
Countermeasures
Behaviour &
Communication
Modelling
Joint Committee
for Vaccination
and Immunisation
(JCVI)
The Perfect Storm?
Increased demand
50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
1. Increasing
population
Climate
Change
2. Increasing levels of
urbanisation
3. The rightful goal to
alleviate poverty
4. Climate Change
Food
Water
Increased demand
50% by 2030
Increased demand
30% by 2030
(FAO)
(IFPRI)
Increasing population and
urbanisation by 2030
World population by region
Urban and rural populations of the world
(at mid-year) 1950 - 2050
7000
10
Population (millions)
9
Northern America
8
Latin America
7
Europe
6
Asia
5
Africa
4
3
2
1
6000
Rural population
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
Source: United Nations, World Population
Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)
1960
0
0
1950
Population (billions)
Urban population
Oceania
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization
Prospects: 2008 (revision)
Increased demand for food
and energy
World primary energy demand by fuel
World food requirements
4500.00
Million Tonnes of food
4000.00
3500.00
Milk and dairy (excl butter)
Meat (carcass weight)
Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products
Pulses
3000.00
Sugar
2500.00
Roots and tubers
Cereals, food
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
1969/71
1979/81
1989/91
1999/01
2030
World food production must rise by
50% by 2030 to meet increasing
demand (Source: UN 2008)
2050
Total world energy demands are
predicted to increase by approx. 50%
by 2030 (Source: IEA 2008:
Reference Scenario)
By 2030:
Agricultural production
More people means less cultivated land per person
for food, feed, (agro)-fuel and fibre production
2030 – 8.3 bn people
2030 – even less
farmland per person
Lowest level of grain reserves
since the 1970s
Stock to use ratio, % of all grains and oilseeds
Stores divided by consumption (%)
39
34
29
24
19
14
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
Source: Thirtle, unpublished
The challenge
Need:
50% more production on
less land, with less water,
using less energy, fertiliser
and pesticide …
…by 2030
… whilst not increasing
GHG emissions
Biotechnology can help provide
solutions
Maize
Rice
Potatoes
Wheat
0
Percentage loss of crop
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
Current losses due to pests and
diseases worldwide
Plants grow in an oasis next to the
desert in Dunhuang, Gansu province
• Genomics to provide targeted and predictive non-GM plant breeding
(e.g. for yield, sustainability, quality)
• Work on crop improvement e.g. increased disease resistance
• GM may also provide future solutions, notably for improved drought and
saline tolerance; and resistance to pests and disease
UK Cross Government Food
Strategy
Food Strategy Task Force
(Cabinet Office chair)
Other subgroups
e.g. Vision (Defra
chair)
Research Strategy
Subgroup
(GCSA Chair)
Food Research
Partnership
Industry
Academia
Public Sector
Other expert advice
The Council of Food Policy Advisers
(CFPA)
The Scientific Advisory Committee
on Nutrition (SACN)
The Spongiform Encephalopathy
Advisory Committee (SEAC)
Committee on Toxicity of Chemicals
in Food, Consumer Products and
Environment (COT)
Research Councils and the
Food Supply Chain
Food supply chain
Agriculture &
> Production > Manufacture > Distribution > Consumer > Health
Food research
& Trade
Opportunities for science and
innovation
The new TSB Sustainable Agriculture and Food Innovation Platform will
see investment of up to £90 million over the next five years.
It will focus on:
• Crop productivity including protection and nutrition
• Sustainable livestock production
• Waste reduction and management
• GHG Reduction technologies and Methodologies
The Perfect Storm?
Increased demand
50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
1. Increasing
population
Climate
Change
2. Increasing levels of
urbanisation
3. The rightful goal to
alleviate poverty
4. Climate Change
Food
Water
Increased demand
50% by 2030
Increased demand
30% by 2030
(FAO)
(IFPRI)
Global temperature rise
PROBLEMATIC
+2
°
+4°
• 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress
• Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes
• Increased coastal flooding and storms
• Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw
DISASTROUS
• A 16 °C increase in the Arctic
• 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress
• Widespread coral mortality; risk of major
extinctions around the globe
• Substantial global impact on major crops
• Long-term prospect of sea level rise
Temperature ranges at + 4°C
+ 8 - 16 °C
+5-7
°C
+3-8
°C
+4-8
°C
Interactive map: www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre
Europe + 2°C
1. High forestfire danger.
2. Production of
some cereal
crops may
increase.
3. Changes in
rainfall patterns.
5. Drought
events one and
a half times as
frequent.
8. Hottest days
across Europe
could be as
much as 6°C
warmer.
Source: Met Office
Europe + 4°C
1. High forestfire danger
5. 70%
reduction in
river and
stream flow
6. Sea-level
rises and storm
surges
11. Drought in
Mediterranean
basin
18. Hottest
days of the year
across Europe
up to 8 °C
warmer
Source: Met Office
Americas + 2°C
1. High forest-fire
danger
2. Production of some
cereal crops may
increase.
3. Changes in rainfall
patterns.
7. Hottest days across
eastern North America
could be as much as
8°C warmer.
Source: Met Office
Americas + 4°C
1. High forest-fire
danger
5. 70% reduction in river
and stream flow in
South America
9. Disappearance of
many glaciers in South
America
15. Tropical cyclones
more destructive
17. Hottest days up 1012° over eastern North
America.
Source: Met Office
Africa + 2°C
1. High forest-fire danger
2. Production of some
cereal crops may
increase.
5. Drought events one
and a half times as
frequent.
Source: Met Office
Africa + 4°C
1. High forest-fire danger
2. Maize and wheat
yields reduced by 40%.
5. 70% reduction in river
and stream flow in
southern Africa
11. Drought twice as
frequent in southern
Africa
18. Hottest days of the
year up to 8 °C warmer
on Mediterranean coast
Source: Met Office
Our understanding of climate
change: the 1930s
1935
In 1938 Callendar
identifies a warming trend
and argues that it was
caused by human
emissions of CO2
Source: Quarterly J. Royal Meteorological Society 64, 223 (1938)
Understanding climate change:
the 1960s & 70s
1975
Press speculation that
the Earth could be
heading for cooling
rather than warming
Top left: Nigel Calder's 1974 book entitled The Weather Machine and the Threat of Ice
Understanding climate change:
the 1980s to today
Hansen (US) and
Wigley /Jones (UK)
used statistical
techniques to show
global temperatures
had been rising since
the mid 1960s
• First robust records of global temperature
change
• They accounted for ‘data gaps’ in the
Southern Hemisphere and over the oceans
Appropriate analysis
Correct use of
statistics
is critical for the
communication
of climate change
Source: Met Office
Is global warming due to
human activities?
Source: Stott et al. External
Control of 20th Century
Temperature by Natural and
Anthropogenic Forcings
Science, 2000, Vol. 290. no.
5499, pp. 2133 – 2137
Graph from Met Office
Hadley Centre website
The Government Office for
Science
The Prime Minister and Cabinet
BIS
International
Science in Government
Team
Government Chief Scientific
Adviser
Private
Office
• Ministers
• CSAs
• OGDs
• NGOs
• Industry
Foresight
Team
• GO - Science are housed in BIS but have an independent cross-Government
role
• GO - Science provide scientific challenge and support to Departmental policy
officials and for scientists across Government
Foresight Project:
Mental Capital and Wellbeing
This project aimed to use the best available scientific
and other evidence to develop a vision for:
•
The opportunities and challenges facing the UK
over the next 20 years and beyond, and the
implications for everyone’s “mental capital” and
“mental wellbeing”.
•
What we all need to do to meet the challenges
ahead, so that everyone can realise their potential
and flourish in the future.
The MCWB Lead Expert
Group have recently
published their expanded
findings as an important
reference work.
Foresight Project:
Global Food and Farming Futures
Reporting:
October 2010
(A) Sustainably feeding the world under ever
increasing resource pressures
(B) Increasing resilience to cope with a more volatile
world
(C) Ending hunger
(D) Meeting the challenge of a low carbon world
(E) Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services
while feeding the world
Foresight Project:
Global Environmental Migration
Reporting:
September 2011
(A) Survival migration
(B) Rapid changes in migration flows
(C) Concentrated migration
(D) New migration streams
(E) Changing distribution of urban centres
(F) Migration in the context of adaptation
Global challenges for science and
engineering in the 21st Century
 Urbanisation
 Energy demand
Counter-terrorism
 Population
Food security
Climate Change
Non-infectious
diseases
Infectious diseases
Alleviating poverty
 Water demand
Biodiversity