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European Science Foundation (ESF)
Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB)
Berlin, 16-17 February 2011
Social sciences and Foresight
A European perspective
Domenico ROSSETTI
European Commission, DG Research & Innovation*
[email protected]
* Personally speaking
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EU Forward Looking Activities
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Foresight, Forecast, Horizon scanning, Technology
Assessment, Impact Assessment, Prospective
Quantitative and qualitative approaches
A long tradition in the EU
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European Commission: Cellule de Prospective, Multiannual
Financial Perspectives, long-term planning
EP: Scientific Technology Options Assessment (STOA)
Council and Member States: Joint Programming (JPI)
European Council: Gonzalez Report « Europe 2030 »
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Objectives of EU FLA
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To anticipate new societal challenges
To advise on the main changes that the World and
Europe will have to face in the next decades
To inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts
To evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU
proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment)
To scan the weak signals and the wild cards including
the potential technological and social breakthroughs
To shape a more sustainable future
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Methods: Quantitative and qualitative
Foresight &
Vision
Stakeholder
-based
Sociopolitical
wide scope
(Participatory)
Delphi survey
Technology Roadmap
Expert-based
(Non-part.)
Source: D. Rossetti
Forecasting
& Modelling
Quantitative
approach
Technoeco.
Problem
solving
Qualitative
approach
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FLA and EU policy-making
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Europe 2020 Strategy: Smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth
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Innovation Union Flagship Initiative: Commitment 8:
Science base for policy-making and “European Forum on
FLA”
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Green Paper “From challenges to opportunities: Towards a
common strategic framework for EU research and
innovation funding”
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Europe 2020 Strategy targets
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75 % of the population aged 20-64 should be employed
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3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D
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The "20/20/20" climate/energy targets should be met
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The share of early school leavers should be under 10%
and at least 40% of the younger generation should have a
tertiary degree
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20 million less people should be at risk of poverty
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EU FLA in Social Sciences
European Foresight Platform (EFP)
 The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR) and Global
Europe 2030/2050
 The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO) and
EuroMed-2030
 The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER)
 Science, Technology and Innovation (FARHORIZON, INFU,
SESTI, CIVISTI)
 Wild cards and weak signals (IKNOW)
 Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA)
 Security and defence (SANDERA)
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Methods: Prediction and hope
Level of detail
Quantifiabiity
Degree of objectivity
Probability
HIGH
Market forecasts
Economic forecasts
Perspectives
Scenarios
Futurology
Timeframe
Scope of assumptions
Systemic perspectives
LOW
MONTHS
YEARS
DECADES
Source: Fraunhofer - Envisioning future research horizons
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Modesty is a must
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Financial and economic crises
Technological developments
Social habits
Political movements
…
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The World in 2025
Trends
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61% of world population in Asia, EU: 6,5%
35% of the European population will be old
More than 30% of GDP produced by Asia, less than 20%
in EU
Asia is the 1st world exporter (EU 32%, Asia 35%)
Asia on par with US & Europe in the field of R&D
Globalization of R&D means that access to knowledge
is key
Source: EC, World in 2025
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Largest countries by 2025
(100 million or over)
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China (1453)
India (1431)
EU-27 (517)
USA (358)
Indonesia (263)
Pakistan (246)
Brazil (214)
Nigeria (210)
Bangladesh (195)
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Russia (132)
Mexico (123)
Japan (120)
Ethiopia (119)
Philippines (117)
Egypt (105)
Not a single European
country in this list
Source: UN
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Tensions
Resources and risks (2025)
In 2025 resources are scarce and the absence of global
regulation and distribution mechanisms involves risks:
 1/3 of the population undernourished or badly
nourished
 Carbon-based energy remains dominant
 3 billion people will not have access to water
 More and more competition on land
 If EU not followed on climate change policy, a
warming of less than two degrees is unlikely
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Tensions: The energy example
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Future Total Primary Energy Supply
 1970: 5000 Mtoe
 1990: 8000 Mtoe
 2010: ~ 12000 Mtoe
 2030: ~ 17000 Mtoe
 What’s next?
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USA: 8 toe/cap
5% of population and 23% of consumption
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Europe: 4 toe/cap
10% of population and 20% of consumption
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China: 1 toe/cap
21% of population and 12% of consumption
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EU energy imports
Source: European Commission, DG TREN
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World and EU GDP
World GDP (Billion 99 €)
Share of World GDP
100%
100000
90%
80%
80000
70%
60%
60000
50%
40%
40000
30%
20%
20000
10%
0
0%
1990
Western Europe
CIS, CEEC
Asia
2000
2010
North America
Latin America
2020
2030
Japan, Pacific
Africa, Middle-East
1990
Western Europe
CIS, CEEC
Asia
2000
2010
North America
Latin America
2020
2030
Japan, Pacific
Africa, Middle-East
Source: European Commission, DG RTD (WETO)
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World (ageing) population
Source: European Commission, DG RTD (VLEEM)
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Cost of ageing in Europe
EU27
30
+4.7
25
% of GDP
20
15
+2.4
+1.5
10
-0.2
+1.1
5
-0.2
0
Pensions
Health care
Long-term care
2007
2060
Education
Unemployment
benefits
Total
Source: European Commission – H. Bogaert, Ageing Report
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Population change in the EU
After 2025, reduction of the EU population (520 millions)
Source: United Nations
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EU transport
V eh ic le E vo lu tio n - E U 1 5
300 .00 0.0 00
No of veh icles
250 .00 0.0 00
200 .00 0.0 00
150 .00 0.0 00
100 .00 0.0 00
50 .00 0.0 00
Passen ger Cars
L ight Duty Vehicles
Hea vy Du ty Vehicles
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
0
Buse s
Source: European Commission, Eurostat and DG TREN
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Megacities
Source: Davies /
Le Quément
(rounded figures)
Mexico
Seoul
Sao Paolo
Mumbai (Bombay)
Jakarta
Dacca
Cairo
Manila
Lagos
Shanghai
Teheran
Istanbul
1950
2005
(millions)
3
1
2,5
3
1,5
0,5
2,5
1,5
0,5
5,5
1
1
(millions)
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16
16
15
14
14
13
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Increasing urbanisation
RURAL
63%
URBAN
37%
1970
RURAL
53%
URBAN
47%
2000
RURAL
40%
URBAN
60%
2030
Source: UN-Habitat
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Some questions
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Services economy
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Public policies
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Intangible investments
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Consumer behaviours
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Technological and social innovation
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New indicators
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Potential transitions – Towards…
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A multi-polar world and world governance
Thrust relationships - hard / soft power
A new universalism
A large integrated Europe and a “global Europe”
An active and healthy ageing
A new socio-ecological production and consumption
model
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Conclusions
Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030”
Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and
strengthen the role as one of the main global
actors, or we become an "increasingly irrelevant
outgrowth on the Asian continent"
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Another view of the world
Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-map.gif
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More information
http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/
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