Transcript Toyota Ozone Project: Title of presentation

Markus Amann
Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
An outlook to future air quality in Europe:
Priorities for EMEP and WGE
from an Integrated Assessment perspective
35th Session of the EMEP Steering Body
Geneva, Sep 5-7, 2011
SO2 emissions in Western Europe (EU15+2):
A 1970’s perspective and actual development to 2010
400%
400%
350%
350%
1970
1970
to
to1970
relative
relativeto
GDP
GDPrelative
and
andGDP
SO2
SO2
SO2and
300%
300%
SO2
SO2 avoided
avoided through
through
energy
energy efficiency
efficiency
improvements
improvements
changes
changes in
in fuel
fuel
structure
structure
250%
250%
(end-of-pipe)
(end-of-pipe)
emission
emission controls
controls
200%
200%
Actual
Actual SO2
SO2
150%
150%
Hypothetical
Hypothetical GDP
GDP
(3%
growth/yr)
(3% growth/yr)
100%
100%
Actual
Actual GDP
GDP
(constant
(constant 2000
2000 Euro)
Euro)
50%
50%
0%
0%
1945
1955 1960
1965 1970
1975 1980
1985 1990
1995 2000
2005 2010
1945 1950
1950 1955
1960 1965
1970 1975
1980 1985
1990 1995
2000 2005
2010
Source: IIASA
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
Mega-trends: Energy consumption up to 2030
Primary energy consumption (1000 PJ)
90
80
70
•
Baseline assumes current MS policies, but not the targets
of the Energy & Climate Package
•
Despite a 50% increase in GDP,
EU-27 energy use would stabilize
•
No major changes in fuel shares,
although renewables increase
•
Saturation of transport demand after 2020
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
Coal
2005
Oil
Gas
2010
2015
Nuclear
2020
Biomass
2025
2030
Other renewables
Energy use by fuel
15
40
Power sector
Transport
Households
Non-energy
1000 Passenger-kilometer/ person
12
9
6
3
2005
2020
2005 Gasoline
2020 Diesel
2030 Gasoline
2030
Energy use by sector Energy intensity of GDP
Mileage per person
EU
SE
UK
ES
SK
SL
PL
PT
RO
NL
LU
MT
IT
LT
IE
2020 Gasoline
LV
HU
DE
GR
FI
FR
EE
DK
CY
2005 Gasoline
CZ
AT
BE
SE
UK
SL
ES
SK
RO
PL
PT
NL
LT
LU
MT
BG
0
0
IT
2030
LV
2025
IE
2020
HU
2015
EU-27
Conversion
Industry
2010
DE
2005
GR
2000
5
FI
0
10
FR
10
EE
20
15
DK
30
20
CY
40
25
CZ
50
30
BG
60
AT
70
35
BE
80
Energy intensity of GDP (TJ/mill €)
Primary energy consumption (1000 PJ)
90
2030 Diesel
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
Mega-trends: Agricultural and land use development
•
Less cows and cattle, more pigs
•
Strong increase in bio-fuel production
•
More land area for crops and
wood production
Bio-fuel production
600
700
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2005
Dairy cows
Pigs
Sheep
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Other cattle
Chicken and poultry(*10)
Livestock numbers
Total wood demand [Mm3]
Livestock units
500
600
500
Energy wood
400
Fuel wood
Other ind. roundwood
300
Pulp wood
200
Sawnwood
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Wood production
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection (= Gothenburg revision baseline)
Most air pollutant emissions will decline
12000
SO2
Emissions [kt]
10000
8000
6000
•
Baseline includes current legislation with
national interpretations of IPPC directive
•
Strong decline in SO2, NOx, PM, VOC before 2020,
but less improvements expected after 2020
•
Only little change in NH3 after 2010
4000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Domestic sector
Industrial processes
Solvents
Off-road transport
Agriculture
1400
Emissions [kt]
8000
PM2.5
1600
NOx
10000
Emissions [kt]
12000
1800
12000
6000
4000
1200
1000
800
600
400
2000
VOC
4000
3500
8000
6000
4000
2005
2010
Power generation
Industrial combustion
Fuel extraction
Road transport
Waste treatment
2015
2020
2025
Domestic sector
Industrial processes
Solvents
Off-road transport
Agriculture
2030
2000
2005
2010
Power generation
Industrial combustion
Fuel extraction
Road transport
Waste treatment
2015
2020
2025
Domestic sector
Industrial processes
Solvents
Off-road transport
Agriculture
2030
2000
2500
2000
NH3
1500
500
0
0
0
3000
1000
2000
200
0
2000
4500
10000
Emissions [kt]
2000
Power generation
Industrial combustion
Fuel extraction
Road transport
Waste treatment
Emissions [kt]
0
2005
2010
Power generation
Industrial combustion
Fuel extraction
Road transport
Waste treatment
2015
2020
2025
Domestic sector
Industrial processes
Solvents
Off-road transport
Agriculture
2030
2000
2005
2010
Power generation
Industrial combustion
Fuel extraction
Road transport
Waste treatment
2015
2020
2025
Domestic sector
Industrial processes
Solvents
Off-road transport
Agriculture
2030
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
Impact indicators will decline too
•
All impact indicators will decline to 2030
•
New in EC4MACS:
Assessment for Natura2000 areas
Natura2000 areas: Excess of critical loads in 2020
Eutrophication
Acidification
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
But damage costs remain substantial
Damage costs of air pollution in the EU-27
1400
1200
€ billion/year
1000
Materials
Crops
Morbidity ozone
Mortality ozone
Morbidity PM2.5
Mortality PM2.5
800
600
400
200
0
low
high
2000
low
high
2020
low
high
2030
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
There is potential for further cost-effective action
with large benefits
2.0
1.0
Hours per worker per year
1.5
Working time gained from less absence of work
Working time required to pay for measures
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Baseline
LOW
Low*
Mid
High*
HIGH
Emission control cases in CIAM 1/2011 report
EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010
Maximum
technically
feasible
reductions
Million life years gained/year
Life years gained from reduced mortality
Cause-specific mortality method suggests larger health effects
from PM than earlier all-cause approach
12
Loss in statistical life expectancy
due to PM2.5 in 2000
10
Months
8
All-cause
6
Respiratory
Cardio-vascular
Lung cancer
4
2
0
Cause-specific
All-cause
EU-27
Cause-specific
All-cause
Non-EU
Source: CIAM report
2/2011 for TFH 2011
Findings: Some key problem areas in the future
•
•
Air quality:
-
Urban air quality (PM, NO2)
-
Nitrogen
Climate:
– Climate targets for 2050 require fundamental structural measures
in the near term
-
•
Land use emissions/sinks critical for further agreements
Interactions between air quality policies and climate strategies
Priority areas for further EMEP and WGE work
from an integrated assessment perspective
EMEP
WGE
PM
Close the gap between
observations and model
results, also in urban areas
Health impacts from PM
(cause-specific mortality,
transferability, morbidity)
Ozone
Explain historic ozone trends
and source attribution:
hemispheric - European – local
Demonstrate health and
vegetation benefits of further
ozone reductions
Eutrophication
Communication to public
Acidification
Demonstrate benefits of further
emission controls