Transcript A Reassessment of the human and economic costs of the

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR
 New approach to assessing the climate vulnerability of the world
at country level.
 It draws on the most recent science and research.
 Looks into socio-economic impacts – negative and positive – of
Climate Change and the Carbon economy, separately and
combined.
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Commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum
in the Dhaka Ministerial Declaration of
November 2011: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Costa Rica,
Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Kiribati, Madagascar, Maldives, Nepal, Philippines,
Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Vietnam
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34 indicators of effects of Climate Change (22 indicators) and the
Carbon economy (12 indicators).
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Determined on the basis of mortality and economics losses or
gains.
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Estimations for 2010 & 2030.
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Data for 184 countries.
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Five vulnerability levels.
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1.
2.
3.
4.
Environmental Disasters
Drought
Floods and landslides
Storms
Wildfires
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Habitat Change
1.
Biodiversity
Desertification
Heating and Cooling
Labour Productivity
Permafrost
Sea-level Rise
Water
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
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Health Impact
5.
Diarrheal Infections
Heat & Cold Illnesses
Hunger
Malaria & Vector-borne
Meningitis
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Industry Stress
1.
Agriculture
Fisheries
Forestry
Hydro Energy
Tourism
Transport
1.
2.
3.
4.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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Environmental Disasters
1.
2.
Oil Sands
Oil Spills
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Habitat Change
1.
2.
3.
Biodiversity
Corrosion
Water
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Health Impact
1.
2.
3.
4.
Air Pollution
Indoor Smoke
Occupational Hazards
Skin Cancer

Industry Stress
Agriculture
2. Fisheries
3. Forestry
1.
 Level of confidence that the research team
attributes to the indicator summarizing 4 criteria
 A 3 point scale is used to evaluate each criteria
The map indicates regional uncertainties of key climate factors. It shows the level of
disagreement among groups of climate models on the direction of change of a given
indicator's key climate variable.
The map shows the 2030 vulnerability level for every country.
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOR
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Feedback for the development of the
monitor’s methodology
Explain how the analysis of the monitor can
be used in a national situation
Serve as a knowledge-sharing mechanism
for best practice and change management for
the benefit of other vulnerable countries
Provide an outside supporting analysis of
interest to national policy makers and
development partners
Climate
Carbon
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Total economic
cost due to CC
impacts
estimated to
increased from
5% (2010) to 11%
(2030).
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The most significant
impacts for Vietnam (and
also globally), especially in
relation to heat stress.
Total cost due to climate
change: 4.4% GDP
(2010)/8.6% GDP (2030)
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Total economic cost:
0.7% (2010) to 2%
(2030) GDP.
Largest total losses in
the fisheries sectors due
to climate change.
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National workshop in
Hanoi focused on policy
aspects.
Field researches on Ben
Tre and Yen Bai.
In-depth interview with
stakeholders
(Authorities, NGOs,
Businesses,
Communities etc.)
Public awareness:
 A key priority.
 Levels of public awareness on climate change
issues are both challenges and opportunities.
 A focus on practical actions that people can
apply and involved in is necessary.
M&E:
 Needs to enhance M&E efforts to promote
learning and improve implementation.
 A better criteria for evaluation is vital.
Sea level rises and related phenomena:
 The tendency to adopt hard measures may
not be the best option.
 A diversification of response strategy is more
practical.
 Addressing other factors (e.g. managing
common resources and/or transnational
water issues) would be a step toward meeting
these challenges.
Aquaculture and fisheries:
 Dominant industries and sources of livelihood,
but also capital intensive, highly sensitive to
climate and risky.
 Limited serious regulation targeting
overfishing and protecting young fish stock.
 Preservation of coastal mangrove is seen as
vital.
Social vulnerability:
 Malnutrition, access to clean water and electricity
etc.
School and education:
 Initiatives exist with initial positive results
Agriculture:
 Very sensitive to extreme weather and impacts.
Currently no insurance scheme to help protect the
farmer from weather/climate related risks.