Transcript Revising the Florida Wildlife Action Plan

Andrea Alden
Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
NatureServe’s
Climate Change Vulnerability
Index
Relative vulnerabilities
of some SGCN
to climate change
Defenders Partnership:
Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI)
 Exposure
– Temperature and moisture
 Indirect exposure
– SLR, barriers, land use
 Species sensitivity
– Dispersal ability
– Sensitivity to change in temp
and precipitation
– Habitat specificity
– Genetic factors
 Dispersal, niche, disturbance
– Diet, genetics, …
 Response
– Range, protected areas
Glick et al. 2011
All photos courtesy of en.wikipedia.org
CCVI: select SGCN scores
Extremely Vulnerable
Highly Vulnerable
Moderately Vulnerable
Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable
Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely
NatureServe’s
Climate Change Vulnerability
Index tool
Relative vulnerabilities
of our species
to climate change
then
Habitat modeling
And
Future land-use scenarios
Spatially Explicit
Vulnerability Analyses
(SEVA)
Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses
•6 focal species
2 birds – least tern & short-tailed hawk
2 reptiles – Atlantic salt marsh snake & America crocodile
2 mammals – Florida panther & Key deer
Future Land-Use Scenarios
 50 years into the future
– 2010, 2040, and 2060
 Scenarios varied across 4 dimensions:
– Climate change represented by sea level rise
– Changes in human population represented by
urbanization
– Land & water planning policies represented by
infrastructure expansion
– Availability of public resources for conservation
Future Land-Use Scenarios
Scenario
Dimensions &
Future Scenarios
 Scenario B – best case
 Scenario E – middle
 Scenario C – worst case
SEVA Process
American Crocodile Orientation
SEVA Process
 3 future land use
scenarios + habitat
models = impact maps
NatureServe’s
Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment tool
Future land-use scenarios
And
Habitat and modeling
Relative vulnerabilities
of our species
to climate change
Spatially Explicit
Vulnerability Analyses
(SEVA)
next
Conceptual modeling
Added a spatial component
Potential adaptation strategies
And
Locations to implement
Conceptual Modeling
Adaptation Strategy Map
Obstacles & Lessons Learned
 Good to have two methods
– Different assumptions/caveats
– Different data & uncertainties
– Comparison of results
 Modeling changes in coastal areas is more difficult and
time consuming
 Models of vegetation change and succession under
climate change is needed
 Working with experts takes time but brings
collaboration and buy-in
[email protected]
www.MyFWC.com/wildlifelegacy
Adaptation Strategies
1. Room to move strategies
• Fill data gaps on vegetational and
species responses
• Habitat maintenance & improvement
2. Competing with neighbors strategies
• Research effects of roads & other
barriers, potential mitigation options
• Work w/ private landowners to conserve
landscape features
3. Surrounded on all sides strategies
• Most difficult to address
 Continue filling data gaps on species
dynamics
 Actively manage available habitat to
bolster populations
 Identify and conserve corridors