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Vulnerability to Climate Change
Habiba Gitay
World Bank Institute
The World Bank
www.worldbank.org/climatechange
www.worldbank.org/wbi
IPCC – defines vulnerability as
•
The degree to which a system
is susceptible to, or unable to
cope with, adverse effects of
climate change, including
climate variability and
extremes. Vulnerability is a
function of the character,
magnitude, and rate of
climate variation to which a
system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive
capacity.
Climate change has many
characteristics and affects
countries in many ways
Impacts - already occurring –
low income countries most affected
Drought
Flood
Storm
Sea-level rise
Malawi
Bangladesh
Philippines
All low-lying Island
States
Sudan
Ethiopia
China
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Senegal
Zimbabwe
India
Madagascar
Egypt
Zimbabwe
India
Cambodia
Vietnam
Tunisia
Mali
Mozambique
Mozambique
Moldova
Indonesia
Zambia
Niger
Laos
Mongolia
Mauritania
Morocco
Mauritania
Pakistan
Haiti
China
Niger
Eritrea
Sri Lanka
Samoa
Mexico
India
Sudan
Thailand
Tonga
Myanmar
Malawi
Chad
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
Algeria
Kenya
Benin
Honduras
Senegal
Ethiopia
Iran
Rwanda
Fiji
Libya
Pakistan
Impact on
Agriculture
Middle income
countries
Low income
countries
Proportion of people affected by climate related
disasters
Percent of people affected per decade by a climate related disaster
50%
40%
30%
20%
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
10%
0%
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
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People affected by floods and droughts in Africa
Drought
Flood
Millions affected per decade
200
150
100
50
0
60s
70s
80s
90s
2000s prorated
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Major development sectors affected/vulnerable
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•
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Water – its availability
Agriculture – options to reduce adverse impacts
Urban
- Direct – e.g. heat-waves, flooding
- Indirect
•
•
•
–
e.g. rural to urban migration
Infrastructure – Damage and decreased lifespan
Coastal – Storm surge, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion
Natural systems – Damage, failure to regenerate (e.g. after
frequent fires)
Agriculture: Impacts Are Likely to Worsen Over
Time – additional challenges and vulneabilities
Percentage change in agricultural yields between now and 2050
Source: WDR 2010
Health impacts by 2040
By 2030
Increased mortality due to malnutrition, infectious and
respiratory diseases, vector and water borne diseases,
heat related diseases in many parts of the world
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Scarcity of natural resources and climate Change could
lead to migration and conflict and there are hotspots
WBG 2007
Innovation in Carbon Finance: Biocarbon Fund
Costa Rica: Coopeagri
Forestry Project
The project reimburses farmers for
environmental services of
biodiversity protection as a result of
reforestation.
Payments will be complemented with
the income from the carbon sales.
At least 600 farmers in 38 rural
communities are currently associated
with Coopeagri, a cooperative of
coffee, sugar cane farmers who have
agreed to introduce forestry
production activities in their farms.
The project is expected to sequester around 0.56Mt
C02e by 2017.
Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)
First operational program under the Strategic Climate Fund:
$967million in grants and IDA-like resources
Purpose
To help highly vulnerable countries pilot
and demonstrate ways to integrate
climate risk and resilience into core
development planning while
complementing other ongoing activities.
Participating countries: Bangladesh,
Bolivia, Cambodia, Mozambique, Nepal,
Niger, Tanzania, Yemen, Zambia,
Regional Programs: Caribbean
(Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica,
Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and
Grenadines) and South Pacific (Papua
New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga)
Example: Cambodia
Technical support for mainstreaming climate resilience
Piloting vulnerability assessments and investments on an
ecosystem basis
Strengthening data collection on climate risks
Promoting participation of the private sector and civil
society
Working together to reduce poverty and
vulnerability
•
Different countries affected differently now and in future
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Climate change is an added stress - pushes them over
the edge
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Marginalised groups - often face multiple stresses – are
most vulnerable
•
Reducing poverty will have multiple benefits including
decreasing vulnerability to climate change
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Your parliamentary functions – representative,
legislative, oversight – and your leadership role in and
out of parliament are critical
•
MPs can share knowledge amongst themsleves and
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develop guidance to fast track the much needed policies
and strategies
Integrate climate change as part and parcel of
sustainable development
• “Climate change policies cannot be the
frosting on the cake of development; they
must be baked into the recipe of growth
and social development”
•
Robert Zoelick, President, The World Bank
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