Transcript Fishbytes May09 - 1 PPT Climate Change May09

Climate change and fisheries:
WorldFish Center research and policy
priorities
Edward Allison
Allison Perry
Marie-Caroline Badjeck
Climate-induced changes in fisheries systems
Physical
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Temperature
Sea level
pH
Salinity
Currents
Nutrients
Oxygen
Ice cover
Turbulence & mixing
Wind speed &
direction
Storm frequency &
intensity
Evaporation
Precipitation
Runoff
Ecological
• Species distributions
• Timing of reproduction,
migration, abundance
• Physiology
• Recruitment
• Behaviour
• Sex ratios
• Calcification rates
• Upwelling timing & latitude
• Habitat loss
• Coral bleaching frequency
& severity
• Disease
• Algal blooms
Fisheries
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Productivity
Distribution
Species availability
Timing
Days at sea
Accidents
Loss of harbours,
homes
Damage to
productive assets
Increased insurance
costs
Livelihood
diversification
Ability to plan
seasonal livelihood
activities
WorldFish climate change research
1. Diagnosing and mapping climate change
vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent
communities and regions
2. Understanding adaptive responses and strategies
in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems
3. Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to
respond and adapt
Vulnerability to climate change
Vulnerability
• the degree to which a system is susceptible to
climate change, and is unable to cope with the
negative effects of climate change
IPCC 2001, 2007
Assessing global economic vulnerability
Where will climate change impacts on fisheries have the greatest
social and economic consequences?
Global climate predictions
Physical processes
Ecological processes
Fisheries dynamics
Assessing global economic vulnerability
EXPOSURE
SENSITIVITY
Nature and degree
to which countries
are exposed to
predicted climate
change
Degree to which
economies & people
are likely to be
affected by fisheryrelated changes
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
All impacts that may occur without taking
into account planned adaptation
Abilities and resources to cope with
climate-related changes
VULNERABILITY
Vulnerability assessment data
Exposure
• 2050 surface temperatures (HadCM3 model, 2 scenarios)
Sensitivity (Fisheries dependency – marine and inland)
• Landings and contribution of fisheries to employment,
exports and dietary protein (FAO, World Bank)
Adaptive capacity
• Human development indices (health, education,
governance, and economy size)
Vulnerability
• 132 nations
• Robust to different methods of weighting and combination
Greatest climate change exposure
Very low
Low
Moderate
High
No data
• Northern parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas
Strongest dependence on fisheries
Very low
Low
Moderate
High
No data
• Asia, Africa, South America
Lowest adaptive capacity
Very low
Low
Moderate
High
No data
• Africa, South Asia
Greatest vulnerability
Very low
Low
Moderate
High
No data
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Africa, Asia, north-western South America, Russia, Ukraine
2/3 of most vulnerable are Least Developed Countries
Allison et al. (2009)
Highly vulnerable regions
Africa
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2/3 of most vulnerable countries
Very low adaptive capacity
High nutritional dependence
Marine and inland production closely related to climatic
variation
Asia
• High fisheries dependence
• Heavily exploited marine ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs)
• Major river fisheries highly vulnerable to climate
change
South America
• High exposure
• Climate-sensitive upwelling fisheries
Global marine fisheries vulnerability
QUEST-Fish
• Coastal ocean physical-ecological dynamics
• Primary production
• Fish production
• Global food and fishmeal markets
• Socio-economic vulnerability (WFC)
• Vulnerability assessments:
• Global
• Regional (Southeast Asia, West Africa)
• Non-climatic drivers of change:
• Population, trade, economic, and policy scenarios
Threatened coral reefs
Ω aragonite at CO2 = 550 ppm
Reef loss: threats to people
• Reef ecosystem goods and services
• Food, income, employment, coastal protection, building materials,
tourism, exports
• Poverty and reef-dependent regions
• 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries
• 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries
• Small island states
• High population density, limited freshwater resources, sensitive
economies
Vulnerability of reef-dependent regions
Coral Triangle
• >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food
and livelihoods
• Climate change adaptation in the Coral Triangle
• Social vulnerability assessments:
• National-scale (6 countries)
• Finer-scale :
Philippines
Indonesia
Solomon
Islands
Assessing reef-related vulnerability
EXPOSURE
SENSITIVITY
Nature and degree
to which reefs are
exposed to
predicted climate
change
(e.g. bleaching)
Degree to which
economies & people
are likely to be
affected by climaterelated changes on
reefs
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
All impacts that may occur without taking
into account planned adaptation
Abilities and resources to cope with
climate-related changes
VULNERABILITY
Sensitivity: Reef dependence
People more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater:
1. Share of economic activity
• Contribution to individual/household income
• Contribution to community/regional/national economy
2. Source of employment
• Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods
• Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities
3. Source of nutrients
• Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources
• Quantity of reef-associated food consumed
Adaptive capacity
Human development indicators
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Economy (poverty, inequality, debts)
Health (life expectancy, child mortality)
Education (literacy, school enrolment)
Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness,
corruption)
Context-specific indicators
• Governance (MPAs, LMMAs)
• Alternative natural resources (other
fisheries, agriculture, freshwater)
• Infrastructure (e.g. roads)
• Isolation (e.g. distance from urban centres)
• Remittances
WorldFish climate change research
1. Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery
and aquaculture-dependent communities and
regions
2. Understanding adaptive responses and strategies
in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems
3. Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to
respond and adapt
WorldFish climate change research
• Integrated protected area co-management – supporting
environmental governance, climate change mitigation and
adaptation (Bangladesh)
• Strengthening management and enhancing community
resilience to climate change (Lake Chilwa Basin, Malawi)
• Poverty alleviation and mangrove conservation: Carbon
offsets as payments for mangrove ecosystem services
(Solomon Islands)
• Adapting farming systems and aquaculture production
systems to climate variability and change (Bangladesh,
Vietnam)
WorldFish climate change research
• Understanding impacts of climate change in the Nile delta
(Egypt)
• Food security implications (crops)
• Breeding of salt-tolerant fish strains
• Projecting future water supply and demand (Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia)
• Building resilience through community-based adaptive
management
• Integrating sustainable small-scale aquaculture into small-holder
farms
WorldFish climate change research
1. Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery
and aquaculture-dependent communities and
regions
2. Understanding adaptive responses and strategies
in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems
3. Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to
respond and adapt
Reducing vulnerability by building the
capacity to respond and adapt
1. Lobbying for recognition of fishery and aquaculture sector vulnerabilities
in global and regional climate change policy processes (e.g. UNFCC
COP 15, Copenhagen, December 2009)
2. Facilitating the inclusion of the fishery sector in national plans of
adaptation (NAPA) in WorldFish programme and partner countries
3. Engaging with partners to test and refine community and householdlevel adaptive processes
4. Link fishery sector actors at different levels with funding for adaptation
and mitigation schemes