Transcript Climate Change Impacts in the Context of Economic

Double Exposure:
Climate Change Impacts in the Context
of Economic Globalization
Concepts
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Double Exposure: Regions, sectors, ecosystems,
and social groups will be confronted by both the
impacts of climate change and consequences of
globalization. New patterns of winners and losers
will emerge.
What does exposure to multiple stressors mean for
vulnerability? Vulnerability is dynamic. In the
case of agriculture, structural economic changes
must be addressed at the same time as
environmental changes.
Case Studies
Southern Africa
 India
 Cuba
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Double Exposure:
Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and
Economic Globalization in India
Assessing vulnerability
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CICERO, Rutgers, TERI, IISD study supported by CIDA
and Norwegian Foreign Ministry
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Methodology: Macro-level vulnerability profile, local
case studies, policy analysis
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Goal: Identify highly vulnerable districts to identify the
factors that enhance or constrain coping and adaptive
capacity
Elements of vulnerability profiles
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and
cover
• Flood prone districts
• Groundwater extraction
Base
vulnerability
index
Socioeconomic vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
laborers
• Irrigation availability
• Literacy
• Infrastructure
• Gender discrimination
Climate sensitivity
index (precipitation
variability and dryness)
Trade sensitivity
index (port distance
and export- & importcrops)
Climate
change
vulnerability
Globalization
vulnerability
Case Studies
How are farmers influenced by economic
changes?
 How do they cope with climate variability?
 How may global changes influence adaptive
capacity?
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ANANTAPUR
ANANTAPUR
Anantapur District, Andhra Pradesh
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Small and marginal farmers, landless laborers
Dry, rainfed agriculture
Most land devoted to groundnut production
Profitability reduced in 1990s due to growing cost
of cultivation, stagnation or decrease in output
prices, consecutive drought, and pest problems
Desperate situation has led to suicides among
farmers
Groundnut production
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Sufficiency in edible oils gained by early 90s (97% in
’92/93).
Opening of the Indian edible oil market to imports
Palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia has been a main
competitor
Domestic edible oil prices move with international prices;
good crop plus oversupply of imports means low prices.
Duty hikes in India (to protect farmers) often ineffective
because of excess production and drops in international
prices
Implications for farmers
Profitability is being squeezed
 Difficult to repay creditors
 ”Oilseed industry is dying”
 Lack of an alternative rainfed crop that is
viable for small and marginal farmers
 Options: Leave agriculture
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Double Exposure
Climate variability and change is an added
stress to farmers; in some case, it is what
pushes them over the edge.
 Vulnerability to global environmental
change must be assessed within the context
of multiple stressors.
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