Transcript - adaptation

Linking Analysis to Policy
Taimur Khilji
Policy Specialist
United Nations Development Programme
Outline
Evidence based policy? A buzzword, perhaps one
to be taken more seriously.
What is Social Protection? The different
definitions in currency
Finally, an interesting example that touches
upon social protection, Agriculture, Climate
Change, Micro insurance… what lessons and
policy implications can be drawn?
The Landscape
Issue Identification
Gathering Evidence
Relevant Data, Quality of Data
Analyze (cost-benefit, counterfactuals, scenarios, behavioural
change, etc.)
Policy options: are they feasible?
Impact!? Is it measureable?
What is ordinarily done..
Gather Scattered Evidence
Weak quality and lacking in relevance
Often based on heresay
Carry out a Quick Analysis
bias prone
weak assumptions and premises
Offer Generic Policy Options
loosely linked with analysis
Try to Measure Impact
hard to measure given the weak foundation
Linkages weak
between each
phase
measuring
impact and
attribution
becomes difficult
Social Protection…What is it?
Social Protection
A buzz word under which a wide range of initiatives can be
included. Definitions are telling…
World Bank’s definition of Social Protection
“Aiming to reduce vulnerabilities and managing the economic
risks of individuals, households, and communities […] and
enhance the social status and rights of the marginalized. Social
protection covers formal (for example, social security and social
assistance) and informal (for example, community transfers)
mechanisms of social risk management […] provided on the
private, community, market, or public level, but also comprises
political processes that empower and include marginalized
groups with regard to access to social protection mechanisms.”
Social Protection
“ADB defines Social Protection as the set of policies and programs
designed to reduce poverty and vulnerability by promoting
efficient labor markets, diminishing people’s exposure to risks, and
enhancing their capacity to protect themselves against or cope with
hazards and interruption or loss of income. […] SP consists of five
major elements: labour markets, social insurance, social
assistance and welfare service programs, micro and area-based
schemes and child protection.”
Lets look at a couple of more definitions
Defining Social Protection…
ILO’s SPF-Initiative promotes a
comprehensive approach
social protection, including:
to
o
“basic set of essential social
rights and transfers […] to
provide a minimum income
and livelihood security for
all”
o
“supply of an essential level
of goods and social services
such as health, water and
sanitation, education, food,
housing, life and asset-saving
information that are
accessible for all”
And ODI defines Social
Protection quite concisely, yet
comprehensively as..
“the public actions taken in
response to levels of
vulnerability, risk and
deprivation which are deemed
socially unacceptable within a
given polity or society.”
What is Social Protection?
Formal and Informal Mechanisms (WB)
Mechanisms of social risk management (WB)
Set of Policies and Programs to reduce poverty and vulnerability (ADB)
Basic set of essential social rights and transfers (ILO)
Supply of an essential level of goods and social services (ILO)
Public actions taken in response to vulnerability (ODI)
…at the private, community, market, or public level […] a political process
child
protection
Welfare service programs
Water and Sanitation
micro and area-based
schemes
A minimum income and livelihood security for all
Builds Resilience
Reduces Vulnerability and Risks
Empowers marginalized groups
Climate Change
Horn of Africa Risk Transfer
for Adaptation
(HARITA)
HARITA: The Context
• Location:
Ethiopia’s northern
most state of Tigray (village of Adi
Ha)
• Roughly 85 percent of all
Ethiopians are engaged in
smallholder, rain-fed agriculture,
and climate change poses a grave
threat.
• More than 90 districts (in excess
of 2 million households) already
drought-prone.
• Climate projections for the region
suggest that more intense and
prolonged extreme events such as
floods and droughts may be
experienced in future.
Rainfall and GDP growth move together in Ethiopia
(1982-2000)
Source: IGAD and ICPAC (2008)
Climate Risk Management Package
Offers Crop Insurance in exchange for Work (labor)-poorest farmers to use their labor to buy insurance.
The option to trade labor for insurance boosted the
number of farmers able to participate in the program,
nearly doubling the enrollment that was expected
expanded from 200 farmers in the pilot village in 2009 to
over 13,000 farmers in 43 villages in 2011, directly affecting
approximately 75,000 people, while maintaining the same
cost structure.
Grafted the“insurance-for-work” program on top of the well
established Gvernment’s “food and cash-for-work”
Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), a wellestablished program that serves 8 million chronically foodinsecure households across the country.
Climate Risk Management Package
Education and exposure to micro-insurance, increased access to
credit, and improved risk management techniques are necessary
measures for these populations to adapt to the changing climate.
The labor was toward building resilience. Examples of activities
farmers engaged in
Making and using compost—critical for rebuilding soil nutrients
and improving soil moisture retention.
Constructing small scale water harvesting and planting nitrogenfixing trees and grasses-- Promoting soil regeneration, water
conservation, and reducing the risk of flooding.
Cleaning teff seeds—Boosting productivity and controlling weeds.
Therefore farmers are able to benefit even when there is no
payout; the risk reduction measures benefit them even during
years in which rainfall levels are adequate.
Continued Analysis ensuring a
Feedback loop
Data gathered through
Demand and needs assessments
Vulnerability mapping
Establishing community focus groups
Surveys and simulation activities to determine product preferences
HARITA staff worked closely with the communities to customize the
insurance product to better suit their needs.
Based on the assessments, certain services were provided
capacity-building to encourage participation and regular education and
financial literacy workshops to ensure that communities understood the
benefits of insurance, credit and disaster risk reduction activities
Lessons and Policy Implications
PNSP has played a pivotal role vis–a-vis
social protection, as it ensured
coordination and alignment between
government, donors/non- governmental
organizations and financial institutions.
Therefore, important that the right local
government and non-government partners be
identified (and be well coordinated) early in
the process in order to overcome capacity and
other potential implementation constraints.
Lessons and Policy
something
tricky to
Implications
measure
Much of the success in the pilot was
attributed to the high degree of trust
established between project partners and
farmers; community participation, which, in
turn, led to improvements
Also, marketing efforts and the high level
of community involvement in building the
product…and subsequent improvements in
services and products during the project
cycle.
Lessons and Policy Implications
It did appear that there is a trade-off
between personalized products and
long term scalability and sustainability
(cost-efficiency) for such products.
While some degree of customization is
important to ensure uptake and
demand, too much would have
efficiency implications, thus negatively
affecting sustainability.
Lessons and Policy Implications
A microinsurance programme requires scale—a
large number of clients—for it to be commercially
viable.
It would be prudent that during a pilot phase
sufficient seed funding be available to kick start
the process until demand for the product expands.
It is therefore important that initial funding be
available along with a host of willing partners,
including government.
Also, a long-run strategy of expansion needs to be
built into the programme, which identifies
additional communities should the project be
expand- ed.
Lessons and Policy Implications
Given
the
multi-dimensional
nature
of
poverty/vulnerability, it is useful to offer a package of
services that address multiple needs.
The successor project (based on the success of the pilot)
will include a ‘savings’ component, in addition to
insurance for work, food/cash for work, and credit, thus
offering a bundle of products and services to reduce
risk and vulnerabilities.
Finally, context matters! It does not automatically
follow: what works in place X will work in place Y.
Need to pay close attention to the assumptions and
premises on which the project is built.