Transcript Growth is crucial for poverty reduction (7-8%)

Yesterday & this morning
1.
Climate change regime
a)
2.
Scientific knowledge base for action
a)
b)
c)
d)
3.
New financing instruments
Meteorological knowledge
Agricultural and agronomic knowledge
Modelling methods
Vulnerability assessment / mapping
Thematic applications
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Drylands
Floodplains, coastal zones
Energy of the sun
Small island states
Drought prone areas
Mainstreaming climate change
into development operations
Asia and Pacific Division’s endeavours an illustration for the discussion
1. Contextual
considerations
2. Ongoing efforts
3. Expanding
opportunities
Contextual considerations
 PI mindset: mainstreaming
 PI has no explicit climate change programme
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Build capacity into existing processes
Every event has climate change agenda item
 Need to know more … but action is urgent
 Link of climate change and growth
 China and India growth at centre of attention
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Growth has reduced poverty
 Poverty to be reduced by another 50% after 2015
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Nature of remaining poverty
 Growth is crucial for poverty reduction (7-8%)
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Agriculture and agricultural growth are crucial (3-4%)
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Safety net - 1997 financial crisis
Productivity growth is stagnating
Yield gaps substantial
Clean growth … clean agricultural growth ?
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resource conserving / regenerating growth
Energy: conservation, diversification, generation (biofuels)
 Farmers are most adaptable part of system
and respond to incentives
a) Public services slow to adjust
b) Private sector focussed on ST profitability
 Risk and vulnerability increasing
a) Diversity of risks
b) Intensity, frequency … impact increasing
c) Farmers manage multiple actual risks
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Climate change constitutes LT background
d) Farmers respond
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Price transmission …
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Reduced supply elasticity
sustainability of food production system
Vietnam: risk averseness
 Large region, with wide diversity
 Agro-ecological zones
 Different risk profiles … also timeframe
 Outlook for rural economic livelihoods
 Scope for increased productivity, modernisation,
increased competitiveness, commercialisation
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Smaller sector … rural diversification, emigration
 Agriculture: cause…victim… solution
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New agriculture
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resource awareness
Eastern Indonesia
New crops (old crops): wheat, maize, roots and tubers
Resource protection … (re)productive use
Viability outlook improved
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Risk: food/rice self-sufficiency
Ongoing efforts
see Newsletter February 2008
 Analytical work
 Manilla event on risk and vulnerabilty
 Planned : Climate scoping of the portfolio
 With GM and GECC
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Capacity building dimension (local partners)
 Adjust where necessary: Bangladesh
 RB-COSOP
 Vietnam with the GM
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Adaptation strategies, mitigation strategies
 Philippines – fragile coastal ecosystems
 Grants programme: new issues, new players
 RUPES
 Mountain environments
 Unfavourable rice environments
 Investment programme design:
mainstreaming climate change
 Team member competencies
 Design differently: BBB
 Flexibility
 Targeting: poverty-environment nexus
 poor people, fragile areas
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Technology choices: cropping systems, LEISA
Infrastructure design standards
Risk management strategy
Economic analysis
 Safeguards: environmental assessments
 Cooperation: internal and external
 GM
 CACILM
 Central Asia subregional presence
 GEF – PI/GECC supervision
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China
Sri Lanka
ASEAN
Mongolia
 WB
 Kyrgyzstan – Carbon Sequestration
Expanding opportunities
1. Linking to NAPAs
a) NAPAs linked to other national strategies
b) Ministries of agriculture mobilised
c) Access to LDCF or SCCF
2. Vulnerability mapping:
a) WFP and FAO
b) WMO, University of Florence
3. Risk transfer mechanisms
a) IMI - China
4. Training
a) EC
b) WMO
c) UNITAR
5. REGIONAL EVENTS
Thank you
for your attention
Please send comments to:
Thomas Elhaut
Director, Asia and Pacific
IFAD
[email protected]