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Climate change V&A research at
TERI: methods, experiences, and
future possibilities
Ulka Kelkar
Associate Fellow
TERI (The Energy and
Resources Institute), India
Who is more
vulnerable?
ECHAM4
HadCM2
Country-level Climate
Change Impacts on
Cereal Production
Potential on Currently
Cultivated Land 2080s
CGCM1
Presentation context and outline
 Identifying vulnerability
 Who and what are vulnerable to the projected
impacts? How vulnerable?
 Understanding vulnerability
 What factors cause, amplify or dampen
vulnerability?
 Addressing vulnerability
 How can appropriate adaptation efforts /
policies be developed?
Identifying vulnerability:
Observation
Retreat of the Gangotri glacier
Source: Earth Observatory, NASA
Invasion of chir into oak
in Uttarkashi
Identifying vulnerability:
Modelling
Impact of climate change on water and
agriculture: case study in Uttaranchal
N
Watershed
S HIM L A
UT TA R K A S H I
#
Simla
#
2
Yamnotri
1
Solan
3
SOLAN
#
#
#
#
Chakrata
Yashwant Nagar
4
##
#
S IRM A U R
Dadahu
5
6
##
Koti
#
Damta
#
DE H R A DU N
#
8
7
#
##
9
#
Lakhwar
YA MU N A NA G A R
Tajewala
#
#
#
TE H RI G RA H W A L
Mussorrie
Dehradun
0
20
40 Kilometers
Annual maximum temperatures (1969-1990 and 2040-2060)
trend analysis Station Dehradun
33.0
32.0
31.0
30.0
29.0
28.0
Annual minimum temperature (1969-1990 & 2040-2060) &
trend analysis
27.0
26.0
17.0
0
10
16.5
20
Years 30
40
50
16.0
15.5
Annual rainfall (1969-1990 and 2040- 2060) &
trend analysis
15.0
14.5
3500.0
3000.0
14.0
0
10
Rainfall (mm)
25.0
Minimum temperature
(Deg C)
Temperature (deg C)
34.0
20
2500.0
Years
2000.0
30
40
50
1500.0
1000.0
500.0
0.0
(1969)
0
(1979)
10
(1993)20
(2049)30
(2060) 40
50
Years (1969-74;1976-87;1991;1993;1998;20412060)
Monthly Average rainfall for two time periods Dehradun station
800.00
Rainfall (mm)
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Months (January - December)
Average monthly (1970-1998)
Average monthly (2040-60)
14
Identifying vulnerability:
Indices and mapping
N
Total runoff (mm/a)
UTTARKASHI
DISTRICT
Yamnotri
DEHRADUN
DISTRICT
2
1
3
Chakrata
4
Damta
5
6
8
7
9
Lakhwar
1157 - 1189
1190 - 1221
1222 - 1254
1255 - 1286
1287 - 1319
1320 - 1351
1352 - 1384
1385 - 1416
1417 - 1449
Mussorrie
0
20
Tata Energy Research Institute
TERI
40 Kilometers
Vulnerability index for Indian coastline
 share of land area
affected by 1-m SLR
in total area of
district (based on
JNU 1993)
 share of population
affected in total
population of district
 district level index of
relative development
(CMIE 2000)
 district level index of
relative infrastructure
development (CMIE
2000)
Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and cover
• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
labourers
• Literacy
• Gender discrimination
• Child mortality and
fertility
Technological vulnerability
• Irrigation
• Infrastructure
Climate sensitivity index
Observed (1961-90)
HadRM2 (2 x CO2)
Identifying vulnerability:
‘Double exposure’
Elements of vulnerability profiles
Adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and cover
• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
labourers
• Literacy
• Gender discrimination
• Child mortality and fertility
Technological vulnerability
• Irrigation
• Infrastructure
Climate sensitivity
(monsoon dependence
and dryness)
Trade sensitivity
(port distance and
import-sensitive crops)
Climate
change
vulnerability
Globalization
vulnerability
Vulnerability profiles
Adaptive capacity +
Climate sensitivity
Adaptive capacity +
Trade sensitivity
Cyclones map
Jhalawar, Rajasthan
• drought prone
• low irrigation coverage,
literacy, infrastructure
Chitradurga,
Karnataka
• water scarcity
• proximity to city
• contract farming
and exports
Anantapur,
Andhra Pradesh
• semi-arid
• response of groundnut
farmers to import
competition
Jagatsingpur, Orissa
• cyclones, river floods (loss of mangroves)
• high population density
• acute poverty
• proximity to port
Raipur, Chattisgarh
• rice belt of central India
• crop diversification
• low literacy, infrastructure
Understanding vulnerability:
Local and community focus
A tale of two villages
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
Semi-medium (2-4 ha)
Small (1-2 ha)
Lakhakheri Umat: rainfed farming only
Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks
Landless labourers – seasonal migration
Small/marginal farmers – temporary
coping measures
No long-term adaptive solutions
Marginal (<1 ha)
Insurance
Credit/ loan
Labour (govt or private)
Sell cattle
Use available stocks
Seasonal migration
Use of DRVs
Less water-intensive crop
Insurance
Credit/ loan
Labour (govt or private
Sell cattle
Use available stocks
Seasonal migration
Use of DRVs
Less water-intensive crop
0%
Shift in cropping pattern
0%
Shift in cropping pattern
20%
20%
Landless
Anghora: head-end of dam
Access to irrigation opens up range of
coping options
Much better availability of electricity,
health facilities, and transport
infrastructure (Kota markets)
Mixed farming of oranges and soybean
Education, mechanisation, and cropping pattern
Timannahalli
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mahadevpura
60
50
5
40
30
3
41
20
9
6
10
9
0
farmers educated farmers educated
above Xth
below Xth
standard
standard
farmers educated farmers educated
above Xth
below Xth
standard
standard
mechanised
ragi
maize
11%
2%
jowar 2%
groundnut
48%
paddy 9%
sunflower
11%
1
3
non-mechanised
coconut
4%
arecanut 4%
gram 5%
fruits and plantation
crops 6%
sericulture 10%
ragi
onion
17%
groundnut
34%
13%
jowar paddy
4%
10%
sunflower 10%
Addressing vulnerability
Incorporating adaptation thinking in
policymaking: some examples
 Incentives for making existing schemes available to
small/marginal farmers
– Credit, insurance, subsidies, HYVs
 Cross-sectoral dialogue
– Tail-end villages in command area
 Agri-based industries and markets
– Rice mills, purchase ceilings, Nagari-dhuvraj, jute mills
 Support for traditional options
– Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in
homestead
 Development is the best form of adaptation
– Education, health facilities, electricity, roads
Developing adaptation efforts
 Effective adaptation strategies require understanding
of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability
 Climate change does not occur in isolation –
multiple stresses
 Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’
ability to adapt to climate change
 Adapting to climate variability and climate change
 Adaptation and sustainable development policies
Future research directions
• Further exploration of multi-tiered research
approach
– Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events
– Application to other sectors / specific regions
– Econometric modelling of determinants of
vulnerability
• Focus on policy aspects at level of state
departments (including cross-sectoral issues)
• Capacity building and demonstration of
adaptation options
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