Transcript Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change

Addressing vulnerability to
climate variability and change:
strategies to enhance adaptive
capacities
International workshop on “Vulnerability and
Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice
to Policy”
11-12 May 2006, New Delhi
Rajasthan
Assam
Karnataka
UP
AP
Bihar
Gujarat
Orissa
Chattisgarh
Vulnerability
indicators
Floods
Scenariobased
modelling
Droughts
Community
interaction
Review of studies on coping
measures to extreme events
•Natcom
coastal/disasters
•APN glaciers
•Ford SLR
• APN
•CIDA
agr/climate
agr
info
•OFDA
floods/droughts
• WB
agr/water
•Natcom
agr/wat/for/health
•Indo-UK agr/wat/
for/health/coastal • APN
agr/rice•WB agr
wheat
Single
stress –
climate
change
Climate
variability
and change
Multiple
stresses
Macro-scale modeling approaches
highlight vulnerable regions
HadCM2
Country-level Climate
Change Impacts on
Cereal Production Potential
on Currently Cultivated
Land 2080s
Climate change and economic
changes in India: the impacts on
agriculture
• Basic theme:
– climate change does not occur in isolation
– globalization can alter vulnerability patterns –
DOUBLE EXPOSURE
– agriculture most important sector for India
• Timeframe: February 2001 – March 2004
• Funders: Canadian International Development
Agency (CIDA) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Government of Norway
• Partners: TERI, CICERO, IISD, Rutgers
University
Elements of vulnerability profiles
Adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and cover
• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
labourers
• Literacy
• Gender discrimination
• Child mortality and fertility
Technological vulnerability
• Irrigation
• Infrastructure
Climate sensitivity
(monsoon dependence
and dryness)
Trade sensitivity
(port distance and
import-sensitive crops)
Village-level case studies – hh surveys + PRAs
• coping capacity of communities to current adverse conditions
• factors that enhance/constrain adaptive capacity of farmers
Climate
change
vulnerability
Globalization
vulnerability
Jhalawar, Rajasthan
• drought prone
• low irrigation coverage,
literacy, infrastructure
Chitradurga,
Karnataka
• water scarcity
• proximity to city
• contract farming
and exports
Anantapur,
Andhra Pradesh
• semi-arid
• response of groundnut
farmers to import
competition
Jagatsingpur, Orissa
• cyclones, river floods
• high population density
• acute poverty
• proximity to port
Raipur, Chattisgarh
• rice belt of central India
• crop diversification
• low literacy, infrastructure
Opportunities to diversify
Mixed
farming:Anghora
Access to irrigation
enhances coping options
Much better availability of
electricity, health facilities,
and transport infrastructure
(Kota markets)
Rainfed farming: Lakhakheri
Umat
Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks
Landless labourers – seasonal migration
Small/marginal farmers – temporary
coping measures
No long-term adaptive solutions
Broad objectives
• Reviewing coping strategies being employed by
communities in India and assessing issues and
opportunities for adaptation
» study focus on drought and flood affected regions
» distinguish between reactive temporary mechanisms and
measures for strengthening the adaptive capacities
» links with developmental aspects will be explored
• Assessing the effectiveness with which coping
measures are being employed and the factors
influencing their implementation
• Identifying/ suggesting measures to enhance
adaptive capacities
» Incremental in nature than those currently being employed
to cope during with such circumstances
Study regions
Preliminary discussions and consultations
Pennar in Andhra Pradesh, Mahanadi in Orissa,
Godavari in Maharashtra
AP Vulnerability
Index
Focus: Chittoor and
Anantapur
ADILABAD
VIZIANAGARAM
NIZAMABAD
KARIMNAGAR
WARANGAL
VISAKHAPATNAM
MEDAK
KHAMMAM
HYDERABAD
RANGAREDDI
WEST GODAVARI
NALGONDA
KRISHNA
GUNTUR
MAHBUBNAGAR
PRAKASAM
KURNOOL
ANANTAPUR
CUDDAPAH
NELLORE
CHITTOOR
EAST GODAVARI
SRIKAKULAM
1991: Anantapur –
very high vul &
Chittoor – high vul
2001: Shift to high vul
in Anantapur
Micro-scale, case study based
approaches highlight who is more
vulnerable and extent of vulnerability
Example of matrix: level 1
Jhalawar
Irrigation
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Chitradurga
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Marketing
network
Migration
Jagatsingpur

Insurance
Cropping
pattern change
Raipur
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Which coping options are used?

Example of matrix: level 2
Irrigation Insurance
Awareness of govt
schemes

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Education

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Land holding size
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Community
organisation
(SHGs/PRIs/NGOs)
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Cropping
pattern
change
Marketing
network
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Which factors influence the effectiveness of those
coping options?
Adaptive capacity influenced by…
• Physical factors
– cropping pattern, crop diversification / shift to
resistant varieties or tolerant crops
• Socioeconomic factors
– asset ownership – land, house, cattle,
pumpsets, tractors, tillers, threshers
– access to public goods & facilities – banking,
education and health services
– infrastructural support – irrigation, markets,
proper communication network
– alternative employment options
Coping Strategies
•
•
•
•
Reactive Coping
Change in cropping intensity
Credits/ loans
Shifting cattle and household
• Proactive Coping
• Diversification to non-vulnerable income sources
(aquaculture, tolerant crop varieties….)
• House adaptation - platforms
• Insurance
• Access to Government programs
Case study in Orissa: Preferred interventions in terms of
priority as suggested by villagers
Case study in Maharashtra
• Developments in the last 15 years
– soil conservation initiatives
introduced uphill by the village
head
» Includes digging trenches to control
soil erosion and develop its fertility
– most villagers not supportive of the
fact initially
– interest only in a very small group
» Related to threat of water being
utilised uphill further affecting its
availability downhill
– actual situation
» High rates of run-off from the hillock
surpassing the village, low recharge
rates within the domain of that
watershed
Picture: World Bank Study
S Bhadwal, 2005
A journey in the past
– activities relating to
construction &
restoration of tanks
taken up
– process for building
simultaneous large and
small tanks for storage
and recharge started
– tanks located downhill
one after the other in
series
Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005
Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005
Results to be seen..…
– benefits in the form of reduced run-off,
increased recharge rates, increase in water
tables and recharge of open wells “visible”
– community investments and other bilateral
investments for soil conservation efforts and
development of tanks started
– situation today………of water tables lying at a
depth of 40-50 feet, its availability for irrigation
purposes
– checking outward migration
– generation of other income generating
opportunities
– And more to list…….
Further developments
• Proper planning and execution of other plans/
programmes in the village
• Setting up of an NGO within the village with
villagers as members
» Various village development activities promoted including
education and health centres besides the other
development work
» In some cases technical expertise sought from the
government bodies, especially the rural development
department
• Village regulates its own water usage in line with
the crop plans
» Villagers convinced not to grow sugarcane
» Cropping patterns changed to onions, maize debarring
sugarcane growth
» Crops taken each year based on an annual revisit of the
rainfall situation
Concluding
• Strong and purposive leadership in the village
has brought about a
transformation……..enhancing the resilience of
communities in being able to cope even during
drought years
• Examples can be quoted elsewhere in the
country where such local level initiatives under
strong leadership have been successful
» Tarun Bhagat Sangh and
» Initiatives by Shri Ana Hazare in Raley Gaon Sidhi
• Strong need to understand the processes
behind and pose as testimonials
From practices to policy
• Varying degrees of vulnerability at the national,
state, district, village and household level
• Policy formulation to recognise the differentials
• Also, learning's from community initiatives (eg.,
Maharashtra) and need for further successful
government initiatives (eg., Maharashtra) to be
adopted
• Conditions for replication at different levels needs
to be critically analysed
• Synergise with different government policies for
different purpose for better fortification of capacities
(SGSY, Bharat Nirmaan, IWDP, DPAP etc….)
Thank you.
http://www.teriin.org
http://www.teriin.org/coping