Transcript presentation slides

A Canada that Works
for All Generations
Dr. Paul Kershaw
University of British Columbia
Human Early Learning Partnership
March 4, 2011
Kelowna, BC
Cracks?
Boomers &
Seniors
Children
More
labour
market
hours
25-45
year olds
More
unpaid
domestic
hours
Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php
Then
Now
Average Household
$ Income
Average
House price
as young adults
$474,274
$72,620
56%
$65,940
of women 2545 years in
labour force
80%
When
Boomers were
young adults
(1976-1980)
Today’s
young adults
(2004-2008)
of women 2545 years in
labour force
9% decline
$120,731
When
Boomers were
young adults
(1976)
Today’s
young adults
(2009)
393% increase
POP. SIZE
(2009)
Population pressures
COHORT
…plus biological realities
CHILDHOOD
Biological
sensitivity/
opportunity
AGEING
Biological
vulnerability/
frailty
Sensitive Periods in Early Brain Development
Pre-school years
High
School years
Numbers
Peer social skills
Language
Symbol
Habitual ways of responding
Emotional control
Vision
Hearing
Low
0
1
2
3
4
Years
5
6
7
Graph developed by Council for Early Child Development (ref: Nash, 1997; Early Years Study, 1999; Shonkoff, 2000.)
29%
of BC kindergarten children
are vulnerable.
Vulnerability above 10% is not
biologically necessary.
Biologically, no neighbourhood need
have vulnerability above 10%.
Vulnerable on
One or More Scales
>10%
<10%
Source: EDI Wave 2 (2004/05 – 2006/07)
BC: Unique Population Laboratory:
Early Vulnerability  Quality of Labour Supply
Kindergarten
Population
Grade 4
Population
Grade 7
Grade 12
Population
Population
Criminal
activity
to cut
incarceration
by a third
Reduce early vulnerability to 10%...
to increase
university
eligibility by
a third.
The next generation’s Human Capital
If
Then
University eligible
grades
At K
At G.12
# of children
Vulnerability
29%
Low
41.5%
Score on scale of EDI
and
% achieving university eligible grades
High
The next generation’s Human Capital
If
Then
University eligible
grades
At K
At G.12
# of children
Vulnerability
10%
Low
55.6%
Score on scale of EDI
and
% achieving university eligible grades
High
1960 – 2000: Research shows…
Countries with 55% of students getting
university-eligible grades
vs.
Countries with 42% of students getting
university eligible grades…
ENJOYED .63% OF GDP GROWTH MORE
PER YEAR, FOR 40 YEARS
Decreased Vulnerability =
Increased Growth
1000
800
20%
That’s throwing away
$401.5 billion now
+ interest over 60 years!
600
Status Quo
(29% vulnerable)
BC GDP
($Billions)
Reduced early
vulnerability
increases GDP
by
Reduced
vulnerability
(10%)
400
Baseline growth
Baseline growth
plus 0.63% GDP
per year
First cohort graduates
200
First cohort of 5 year olds benefit
from 15 by 15 policy
We are here
0
0
10
20
Years
30
40
50
29%
of BC kindergarten children
are vulnerable.
Most vulnerable children are
not poor!
Why?
Demographic heroes?
CHILDHOOD
Biological
sensitivity/
opportunity
AGEING
Biological
vulnerability/
frailty
Resisting the
Intergenerational squeeze
CHILDHOOD
Biological
sensitivity/
opportunity
AGEING
Biological
vulnerability/
frailty
$
$
Canada has a proud history of
Building and Adapting
FISCAL DEBT
Country
2009 Central
% increase since
Government Debt
1973
(% GDP)
Australia
Switzerland
Norway
NZ
Canada
Sweden
Denmark
Germany
US
France
UK
8%
21%
26%
28%
36%
38%
38%
44%
53%
61%
75%
Source
OECD
133%
CANSIM
ENVIRONMENTAL DEBT
Country
Sweden
Switzerland
France
NZ
Norway
UK
Denmark
Germany
Canada
US
Australia
Source
2008 Tonnes
CO2/Capita
Change in GHG
% 1990 level
5.0
5.7
5.7
7.7
7.9
8.3
8.8
9.8
16.5
18.4
18.5
13%
1%
-12%
18%
-22%
-18%
-6%
-21%
47%
16%
82%
IEA
UNFCCC
FAMILY POLICY DEBT
Country
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
France
NZ
UK
Germany
Switzerland
US
Australia
Canada
Source
Family Policy for
Young Children
Score/10
10
8
8
8
6
5
4
3
3
2
1
UNICEF
Parental Leave
(year: 2008)
Country
Denmark
Germany
Sweden
Quebec
Austria
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Finland
Netherlands
Spain
UK
Belgium
Norway
Canada (outside of Quebec)
New Zealand
Italy
France
Australia
Ireland
USA
Japan
Parents both take 6 months to
Lower Earner
care for infant. Disposable income (takes all 12 months)
relative to couple without children
Year Can$ (controlling for PPPs)
12,915
1,166
1,105
-2,548
-3,295
-5,945
-6,958
-8,468
-8,624
-9,941
-10,036
-10,298
-10,687
-10,353 - 11,779
-12,592
-15,160
-16,085
-16,343
-19,044
-23,119
-24,019
Year Can$
1,971
1,054
-2,530
-391
372
-2,251
-4,694
-9,258
-5,641
-6,274
-6,448
-7,307
-6,971
-18,999
-11,653
-8,480
-13,235
-10,397
-16,389
-10,866
Public expenditure on ECEC services (0-6 years)
in selected OECD countries
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
Finland
France
Hungary
British
CanadaColumbia
(outside Quebec)
Austria
United Kingdom
••
•
•
•
United States
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
Australia
0.25%
0.22%
0.28%
Canada
BC
0%
0.5%
OECD
avg.
0.7%
Currently
0.22% of GDP
Few spaces
0.28%
with full
school-day K
Insufficient
quality
High cost
Inadequate Inclusion
UNICEF & EU
benchmark
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
% of GDP
Source: Adapted from Starting Strong ll: Early Childhood Education and Care, September 2006, p.11
2.0%
$ after taxes, housing and routine health
Lone Mother with Toddler on Income Assistance (2008)
Canadian Currency
(controlling for purchasing power parities)
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
Norway
Austria
Denmark
UK
Sweden
Germany
Australia
Neth
Japan
Finland
NZ
France
Ireland
Belgium
US
Czech
Spain
Canada
-$5,000
Slovak
Italy
$0
Because there is no system of
family policy…
Canadian Society is FAILING
parents in fundamental ways!
Time Poverty
Service Poverty
Income Poverty
Reflects appreciation of costs imposed by residential school system; reserves, etc.
Solution?
Renew our efforts to build and adapt
so that Canada Works for All Generations.
Enough Time
with kids, family and friends
Better parental leave
more time: +6 months, for dads
more $: $932/week, up from $442
minimum: $440/week
Enough Time
with kids, family and friends
1600 hour annual full-time norm?
Canadian 300 more hours/year than
German, Dutch and Norwegian citizen
56% of men and 31% of women more
than 40 hours
22% of men and 41% of women less than
30 hours
Work beyond age 65…
Enough Time
to make ends meet, to be creative
Child Care & Early Learning Services
$10/day, from leave through K
$7/day, p-t option for @-home parents
Provided by caregivers with ECE training
Play-based approach to ECD
Paid pay equity-level wages
Include Parenting Supports & Healthy
Child Check-ins
In BC, children under 6:
Smart
Family
Policy
Today
44%
Parental Care Only
37%
33%
Regulated Care
63%
23%
Unregulated Care
0%
100%
100%
Boomers &
Seniors
Children
25-45
year olds
$351 million @
minimum wage
Leave: 15,687 years
1600 norm: 8,428 years
$
Net benefit: $126 million
Under $60K gains
Over $60k trading some cash for time
Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php
The price of smart
family policy...
A Canada that works for all
generations: the cost in BC
Services
Healthy Child Check-Ins
& Parenting Support
$91 million
Child Care and
Early learning
$1.1 billion
Less $150 million,
because of the progress
made, despite recession
Time & Income
Parental leave
$2.8
Billion
/Year
$1.1 billion
1600 hour annual
employ. norm
$59 million
End poverty
& Living wage
$474 million
$2.8 Billion/Year in BC?!?
Eventual returns outweigh costs by 6/1
Less than half what we spend cumulatively
on Old Age Security and RRSPs.
About 12-20% of total fed/prov health
care spending.
 More sophisticated consumers of policy announcements.
$2.8 Billion Increase in Spending?
Provincial Health Care Spending
($ Billions) 1998 - 2008
$3B
/5 years
$3B
/5 years
Failure to adapt costs BC employers…
Absenteeism:
Productivity:
Retention:
Insurance premiums
Parental leave top up
$293 million
$393 million
$575-800 million
$ 15 million
$ 20 million
Sub-total
$1+ billion
Reduce wage pressures…
Failure to adapt costs Government
Child welfare:
$157 million
W/L stress 
GPs, emerg, hospitalization: $299 million
Prescription drugs
$ 26 million
Sub-total
$482 million
Reduction in unemployment: 9,950 FTEs
Early vuln  K-12 costs
Poverty  health care costs
Adapting the dam
is a part of our history, good
management, smart economics &
a just cause.
Trusted Professions in Canada (2007)
Fire Fighters
Nurses
Farmers
Teachers
Doctors
97%
94%
92%
89%
87%
Politicians
15%
Thank you.
• Paul Kershaw, Ph.D.
• The University of British Columbia
• College for Interdisciplinary Studies
• Human Early Learning Partnership (HELP)
• http://www.earlylearning.ubc.ca/PaulKershaw.htm
• e-mail: [email protected]