Transcript Vulnerability to the Future Effects of Climate Change

Protecting our Health from
Professionals Climate Change:
a Training Course for Public Health
Chapter 15: What Makes Individuals
and Populations Vulnerable to the
Effects of Climate Change
on Health?
Overview: This Module
 Defines terms
 Discusses the causes of vulnerability to
disease and injury resulting from climate
change
 Describes current and past examples of
vulnerability to effects of heat, famine and
storms
 Points to opportunities to reduce
vulnerability and improve population health
Definition of Vulnerability
 “The degree to which a system is
susceptible to, and unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Fourth Assessment Report 2007
(IPCC AR4, 2007)
Definition of Vulnerability (cont.)
Determinants of Vulnerability
 Character, magnitude, and rate of climate
change
 Sensitivity to climate change
 Coping capacity (adaptation)
Example of Vulnerability to
Climate Change — Coral Reefs
Reasons
 Exposed to rapid ocean
warming
 Sensitive to small
increases in
temperature
 Limited adaptive
capacity
Determinants of Health Vulnerability
to Climate Change
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Biological
Physical
Geographical
Social
Economical
Political
Heat wave — Europe
 Heat index, Summer 2003
Heat-Related Deaths: Who Was at
Greatest Risk?
(England and Wales, 1993–2003)
 Older people: age factor
 Women: gender factor
 People living in London: geographical factor
Those in nursing and care homes: social and
political factor
Hajat et al., 2007
Adaptation:
Heat Wave in France — 2006
Fouillet et al., 2008
Effects of 2006 Heat Wave
in France
 2,065 excess deaths (July 11–28)
 Number expected based on the rates seen
during the 2003 heat wave: 6,452
 Possible explanations
– Model imperfections (over-estimate of expected
deaths)
– Reduced vulnerability (e.g., heat warning
system, better informed public, more
responsive health services)
Climate Change and Pacific
Ocean Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise 28–43 cm
Increase in tropical storm
intensity likely
Vulnerability of Pacific Islands to
Sea Level Rise
Woodward et al.,
1998
Typhoon Impacts by Classification:
a Preparedness Evaluation
Loss of life due to
typhoons is
decreasing owing to
better preparedness
(Fukuma,1993)
Cartogram: Greenhouse Gas
Emissions in 2002
Cartogram: Climate Change
Health Impacts
Note: Uses only data on deaths from malaria and dengue fever, diarrhoea,
malnutrition, drowning (and heatstroke for OECD countries)
Vulnerability to the Future
Effects of Climate Change

“The rich will find their world to be more
expensive, inconvenient, uncomfortable,
disrupted and colorless — in general, more
unpleasant and unpredictable, perhaps
greatly so. The poor will die.”
Kirk R. Smith, 2008
Professor: Environmental Health Sciences
University of California, Berkeley
Hurricane Katrina Crossing the
Gulf of Mexico
Diminishing Number of Death
Due to Hurricanes Striking Cuba,
1998–2002
Category
People
evacuated
Homes
damaged
Deaths
3–4
818,000
40,000
6
Irene 1999
1
162,000
3,000
4
Michelle 2001
4
712,000
90,000
5
Isidore 2002
2
280,000
51,000
0
Lili 2002
2
165,000
51,000
1
Hurricane
George 1998
Oxfam America, 2004
Foundation of Low Storm
Mortality in Cuba
1. Tangible preparedness assets — stockpiles,
plans, equipment, early warning systems
2. Infrastructure — high levels of literacy,
rural development, access to reliable
health care
3. Social capital — engagement of local
communities, high levels of participation,
commitment to reconstruction and
recovery
Oxfam America, 2004
Vulnerability and Climate Variability:
The Case of India 1876–1878
“The more one hears about this famine, the more one
feels that such a hideous record of human suffering and
destruction the world has never seen before.”
Florence Nightingale, 1877
Effect of El Niño on Rainfall
June–August
40 years of data to 2000
Red dots — drier than
usual during El Niño
Blue dots — more rainfall
Size of circle — size of
effect
KNMI, 2009
El Niño events associated with weakening easterlies, warming of the
western Pacific, and shift in rainfall patterns
The 1877 El Niño Was Not
Particularly Severe …
Davis, 2000
… But it Resulted in Intense
Famine
Davis, 2000
Famine in Relation to Food
Production, India 1875–1878
Mid-1876 — monsoon fails, drought begins in SW India
Late 1876 — price of food rises steeply, migrations begin
Mid-1877 — famine deaths begin: total between 6 and 10 million
1877 record
grain exports
to UK
No. Deaths
Davis, 2000
Central India 1860–1890: Wheat
Boom Made Mass Hunger More Likely
 Aggressive promotion of wheat (for export)
instead of millet and gram (for local
consumption)
 Production subsidised by destructive soil
mining and high levels of household debt
 Community-controlled reserves replaced by
remote stockpiles with no moral or
regulatory restraint on speculation
 Neglect of public works (irrigation
especially)
Pacific: Does Modern Agriculture Reduce
Vulnerability to Climate Variability?
Traditional Agriculture
Modern Agriculture
 Crop diversity
 Drought-resistant
staples (e.g., taro, yam)
 Robust methods of food
preservation
 Strong social networks
 Inter-island trade
systems
 Cash cropping
 Reliance on imported
staples (e.g., rice)
 Unreliable methods of
food preservation
(e.g., refrigerators)
 Attenuated social
networks
 Trade systems global,
not local
Conclusions
 Vulnerability = susceptibility to adverse effects +
inability to adapt
 Causes of vulnerability include biological
characteristics, the physical environment, social
circumstances, and national and international
politics
 Opportunities to reduce vulnerability cover a
correspondingly wide range
 Reducing vulnerability to damage resulting from
climate change will bring other substantial
benefits, earlier