Transcript Vulnerability to Climate Change in Tanzania: Sources, Substance

Vulnerability to Climate
Change in Tanzania
Sources, Substance and Solutions
Jouni Paavola
CSERGE, UEA
June 20, 2003
1. Guiding ideas
 Pluralist theories of well-being and its measurement, which
underlie the human development approach
 Physiometric strand of economic history, which has examined
the interactions among nutrition, health and productivity
 New growth research, which examines the implications of social
capital and the quality of informal and formal institutions for
economic performance
 Together the three strands of research suggests that there are
many distinct sources of vulnerability which cannot be
eliminated by one-dimensional measures.
 Human development needed for economic performance and the
reduction of vulnerability, and institutions and state can be
either obstacles or instruments for both.
2. Predicted Climate Changes
 Tanzania is predicted to warm by about 2-4 C by 2100, less than the
“hot spots” of Africa. Warming takes place mainly as the warming of
the cold and dry season.
 Rainfall will decrease in the interior of the country by 0-20 percent
and increase in the coastal region by 30-50 percent.
 Dry seasons will become longer where rainfall is predicted to
decrease. Increased rainfall will in turn be received mainly during
the primary rains.
 Climate variability due to ENSO and SST variations in the Atlantic
and Indian Ocean is predicted to increase
 More frequent and severe droughts and floods in cards. The former
will burden especially the interior and the latter especially the
coastal areas.
3. Predicted Climate Change Impacts
 Yields of certain staple crops such as maize and potato will be hardly
hit. Maize yields can drop on average by a third but at places up to
by 80 percent.
 Yield changes of cash crops such as coffee, tea and cotton uncertain
but unlikely to be significantly adverse
 Land cover changes may reduce the amount of forests and
woodlands, which in turn threatens energy supply and rural household
incomes
 Water availability for power generation, irrigation and public supply
will be diminished.
 Spread and incidence of vector-borne diseases is predicted to
increase. Epidemics of water-borne diseases to increase due to
droughts and flooding.
4. The Concept of Vulnerability
 Vulnerability has been defined as “the capacity to be wounded” by
climate change impacts
 Vulnerability is the other side of adaptive capacity: vulnerability
implies weak adaptive capacity and strong adaptive capacity means
reduced vulnerability
 Adger and Kelly (1999) have described vulnerability both as a state
and as a set of factors that constitute that state and dispose
certain individuals and groups as “vulnerable”
 Leichenko and O’Brien (2002) argue that vulnerability also has a
dynamic side to it – a change towards a more or less vulnerable state.
5. Sources of Vulnerability
 Human capital, aspects of which include longevity, health,
nutritional status, literacy, education, skills and information
 Availability of and access to technological alternatives such
as transport and telecommunication networks, public
utilities and agricultural inputs
 Levels and sources of income
 Income and other forms of inequality
 Aspects of social capital such as trust, transparency,
accountability, security of entitlements, and the quality of
informal and formal institutions
6. Human Capital
 Life expectancy is low 45.6 years and infant mortality (100/k births)
and child mortality (164/k births) high
 AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, diarrhoeal diseases, accidents and
maternal conditions are the commonest causes of death
 Half of population undernourished, 29 percent of children underweight,
and 44 percent under height for their age.
 Literacy rate 75.1 percent. While 90 percent of children start primary
education, only half of them complete it. Enrolment in secondary and
tertiary education low.
 Disparities in human development between urban and rural populations.
 Most indicators depict a downward trend during the 1990s, which may
be difficult to reverse
7. Technological Alternatives
 Radio is the only effective means of information dissemination
and source of information in the country
 Lack of transport infrastructure forms an obstacle for the
formation of functioning national markets as well as for the
access to more confined markets
 Water supply and sanitation are still based on stand-alone
solutions and only a few have access to network technologies
 Access to electricity networks is very limited and biomass
remains the most important fuel and source of energy
 Despite the allocation of resources for the improvement of
infrastructure, technological alternatives of the majority of
Tanzanians will not change greatly in the near future
8. Levels and Sources of Income
 Tanzania has one of the lowest per capita income levels in the
world, $ PPP 523 in 2000. Per capita income has not grown much
in real terms in the past fifteen years.
 Agriculture and other primary production generates half of the
income while manufacturing accounts for only 10 percent of it.
 Tanzania exports 10 percent of its GDP. Half of this consists of
agricultural products such as coffee, cotton and tea. Other
resource exports are important, too.
 Income levels and sources of income unlikely to change radically
in the near future.
9. Income and Other Inequalities
 Tanzania is a relatively equalitarian LDC with its gini value of
38.8. Richest decile earns 11 times more than the poorest decile.
Poorest quintile earns 7 percent of income.
 Yet half of the population remains below the national poverty
line and over 20 percent of it survives with less than $ 1 per
day. Direct link with human development outcomes.
 Inequality between urban and rural populations manifests itself
in disparities in human development and in access to technology.
 Lower incomes and poorer access to public services are both
obstacles for human development in rural areas.
 Income inequality may increase rather than decrease in future
because of economic reforms. Internal migration may alter the
rural / urban divide but not necessarily to the better.
10. Social Capital and Vulnerability
 Social capital is an attribute of social units that facilitates the
individual and collective pursuits of their members
 Homogeneity, trust, accountability, transparency and the quality
of informal and formal institutions are terms that address
aspects of social capital
 Lack of social capital results in weak civil society and state,
which cannot assist people in the reduction of vulnerability
 Civil society and the state are often understood as distinct
entities but but their qualities are intertwined because state is
always nested within civil society
11. Social Capital & Civil Society
 Slave trade, natural disasters and colonialist policies shattered
the integrity of traditional communities and their authority
systems before and during the colonial era.
 The establishment of ujamaa villages during interdependence
specifically aimed at uprooting old authority structures and
relocated 13 million people
 The organisation of ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) was
used to monitor and control population in the new villages
 Yet the power of CCM was not based on violence and its
equalitarian ethos was based on widely shared beliefs
 Voluntary collective action is successfully used to provide public
safety, to manage natural resources, and to engage in incomegenerating and political activities
12. Social Capital & The State
 Political system and public administration addressed as the two
central aspects of the state. Judiciary ignored here.
 Despite the long rule of CCM as the only party, the political
system functions quite well. This is manifested by the relatively
smooth transition to multi-party system and pluralism
 Central and local public administration has suffered from the
lack of accountability and corruption. Lack of capacity means
that public service provision is compromised.
 Several reforms of public administration under way. Their
adequacy and effectiveness is still unclear. Yet prospects for
improvement are there.
Conclusions (I)
 Rural poor are the most vulnerable group in the country because
of their lower level of human development, limited access to
technological alternatives, and low levels of income
 Maintaining communal access to rural environmental resources
and improving their governance is one way of shielding the rural
population against the worst possible outcomes
 Governance solutions based on local involvement and authority
are also likely to build social capital and capacity which can be
harnessed for other purposes
 Sharing of governance tasks and responsibility with the central
government is, however, needed to ensure legitimacy, learning,
and the transfer of lessons
Conclusions (II)
 Building of national markets and facilitating access to them will
also be important in order to mitigate the effects of shortages
and to improve incomes
 Public spending and social welfare programs especially in the
areas of education, public health and health care are the third
important element in reduction of vulnerability
 Reduction of vulnerabilities has to focus on the set of factors
that constitute them, in addition to treating those of their
symptoms which demand urgent attention
 Institutional reforms aimed to strengthen the political system
and public administration will be important for the successful
reduction of vulnerabilities.
Vulnerability to Climate
Change in Tanzania
Sources, Substance and Solutions
Jouni Paavola
CSERGE, UEA
June 20, 2003