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Climate Vulnerability
and
Small Island States:
A Case Study of the Caribbean
Rahul D. Ghosal
Advisor: Dr. Robin Leichenko
Co-Advisor: Dr. Cymie Payne
Reader: Dr. Anthony Broccoli
17 April 2015
Guiding Objectives
1. How do we define “vulnerability”?
2. What renders small island states
particularly vulnerable to the effects of
climate change?
3. In what ways can vulnerability be used
to understand issues of climate justice?
Defining Vulnerability
“The propensity or predisposition to be
adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a
variety of concepts including sensitivity or
susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to
cope and adapt.”
-IPCC (2014: 5)
IPCC (2014: 7)
Differentiating Vulnerability
• Vulnerability is influenced by:
a) Geography
b) Socio-economy
• Comparing vulnerability requires the
specification of:
– Scale
– Sector
Double Exposure
Leichenko & O’Brien (2008)
Guiding Objectives
1. How do we define “vulnerability”?
2. What renders small island states
particularly vulnerable to the effects of
climate change?
3. In what ways can vulnerability be used
to understand issues of climate justice?
A Multi-Scalar Analysis
• International: political vulnerability of AOSIS in
the climate change regime
• Regional/National: economic vulnerability of
the Caribbean through the following sectors
– Tourism in Barbados
– Agriculture in Jamaica
– Fishing in Trinidad and Tobago
The International Scale
• Alliance of Small Island Developing States
– Forty-four constituents
– Most developing states (i.e., SIDS)
– Joined together by consistencies in vulnerability
o Reduce to smallness
<http://www.sids2014.org/>
The Effect of Smallness
• Limits domestic availability of natural
resources and social capital:
– Limits overall size of economy
o Decreases adaptive capacity
o Restricts international political power
– Renders highly dependent upon external affairs
o Global market
o International decision-making
Existential Vulnerability
• Fluctuations in global trade and global climate
change have significant impact on domestic
livelihood
– Not common amongst all Parties
– Mitigation and adaptation objectives are hardly met
• Among most effective strategies is raising the
issue of justice:
Being among the most vulnerable though among the
least culpable
The Regional Scale
• Economic activity is dominated by:
– Tourism
– Agriculture
– Fishing
• Climate-sensitive activities that link the region
to the global market
• Varying political and socio-economic
conditions allow for differential vulnerability
López-Marrero et al. (2012)
López-Marrero et al. (2012)
López-Marrero et al. (2012)
López-Marrero et al. (2012)
Barbados and Tourism
• Contributes 15% to national GDP (Belle & Bramwell,
2005; Charara et al., 2011)
• 70% of resorts are coastally situated (Belle & Bramwell,
2005)
• Multiple shocks and stresses:
– Sea-level rise (SLR): coastal inundation and erosion,
groundwater salinization
– Tropical storms: damage to physical capital and
amenities
– Rising mean annual temperatures: coral bleaching,
exacerbates water scarcity
Jamaica and Agriculture
• Contributes 5% to national GDP (Barker, 2012)
• Approximately 65% of population dependent
upon sector for livelihood (Campbell et al., 2011)
• Multiple shocks and stresses:
– Rising mean annual temperatures: increasing
frequency of longer, more intense droughts;
exacerbates water scarcity
– Tropical storms: losses of major crops
– Variability in precipitation: disruption in dry-wet
seasonality
T&T and Fisheries
• Fish composes 15% of diet in Trinidad and
Tobago (Baptiste, 2013)
• Central to cultural identity
• Multiple shocks and stresses:
– Rising mean annual temperatures: warming of
coastal waters driving valuable stocks away; coral
bleaching
– Tropical storms: damage to physical capital
Guiding Objectives
1. How do we define “vulnerability”?
2. What renders small island states
particularly vulnerable to the effects of
climate change?
3. In what ways can vulnerability be used
to understand issues of climate justice?
Winners and Losers
• Climate change is dulls competitive advantage
in Caribbean
• Climate change can boost competitive
advantage of competitors in global market
– In addition to unfavorable trade regulations, this
renders Caribbean nations as double losers
– Other nations can be double winners
Winners and Losers (cont.)
• Differential vulnerability allows for the
distinction of winners and losers
– Useful in highlighting inequality in both
processes
– Potentially influential in establishing
procedural and distributional justice
Current and Future Action
• A number of regional organizations designed to foster
research, stakeholder involvement, and participatory
action:
– INTASAVE-CARIBSAVE
– CANARI
– CCCCC
• Further research must include:
–
–
–
–
Local climate action
Success measures for regional action
Influence of political conditions on national vulnerability
Emphasis on Caribbean contributions to AOSIS
Works Cited
Statistics
• Baptiste, A. K. (2013). Local vs. expert perception of climate change: An analysis of
fishers in Trinidad and Tobago. In K. D. Thomas, & H. Muga (Eds.), Cases on the
diffusion and adoption of sustainable development practices (pp. 44-82). Hershey,
PA: Information Science Reference.
• Barker, D. (2012). Caribbean agriculture in a period of global change:
Vulnerabilities and opportunities. Caribbean Studies, 40(2), 41-61.
• Belle, N., & Bramwell, B. (2005). Climate change and small island tourism: Policy
maker and industry perspectives in Barbados. Journal of Travel Research, 44, 3241.
• Campbell, D., Barker, D., & McGregor, D. (2011). Dealing with drought: Small
farmers and environmental hazards in southern St. Elizabeth, Jamaica. Applied
Geography, 31, 146-158.
• Charara, N., Cashman, A., Bonnell, R., & Gehr, R. (2011). Water use efficiency in the
hotel sector of Barbados. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19(2), 231-245.
Works Cited
•
•
•
•
•
IPCC (2014). Summary for policymakers. In Field, C.B., et al. (eds.), Climate change
2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects.
contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1-32). Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
Leichenko, R., & O'Brien, K. (2008). Environmental change and globalization:
Double exposures. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, Inc.
López-Marrero, T., Yamane, K., Scalley, T. H., & Colón, N. V. (2012). The various
shapes of the insular Caribbean: Population and environment. Caribbean Studies,
40(2), 17-37.
NevisPages (2013). Retrieved 14 April 2015 from http://www.nevispages.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/06/hurricaneCaribbean.jpg
SIDS 2014 (2014). Retrieved 12 April 2015 from
http://www.sids2014.org/content/images/flagbig6_3272.jpg