Transcript Disaster w-s Jamaica 02

Profile of Jamaica in the
Context of Vulnerability
“Setting
the Stage”
The Issue of
Vulnerability
In the 1980s-1990s Caribbean
countries (among others) lobbied
extensively and successfully for a
global platform within which the
special and unique characteristics
which shape, define and challenge
their development could be
discussed.
Lobby resulted in global
summit and formulation of
the SIDS POA in 1994
The issue of “vulnerability” is a
key consideration in defining
the special status of SIDS
For SIDS, vulnerability is all
encompassing
• Economic
• Ecological
• Social
1. ECONOMIC
 Highly “open” economies susceptible to external
“shocks”
• e.g.: changes in prices of primary
commodities - bauxite, citrus,
bananas and sugar produce
immediate impact on national
economic future
1. ECONOMIC
 Vulnerability to changes in global
trade regimes:
• Trade liberalization - resulting in
lowering of taxes on trade - some
Caribbean countries derived 60%+ of
government revenue from taxes on trade
resulting in serious dislocation
1. ECONOMIC
Development of Regional Trading Blocks
e.g., Jamaica - Impact of NAFTA (loss of jobs to
Mexico)
Declining manufacturing sector:
• 1990 - 20% GDP
• 2000 - 15% GDP
1. ECONOMIC
 Changes in global trading has
resulted in:
• Loss of preferential access for
bananas
• New dispensation - sugar and
rum
1. ECONOMIC
• Serious problems: WI
bananas
• St Kitts/Nevis: divestment
from sugar
1. ECONOMIC
 Classification as “high risk”
high cost of insurance/reinsurance
negative impact on investment &
production costs
1. ECONOMIC
other characteristics
• Undiversified economic structure
• Small domestic markets
• Constraints on institutional
capacity
2. ECOLOGICAL
• Fragility of natural resource base
• Vulnerability to sea-level rise
• Susceptibility to natural
disasters
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms
1980-1989
3. SOCIAL
• High rates of migration “brain
drain” effect
• High rates of natural increase
pressure on State to provide
basic services
• Human resource constraints
required skills
Most of these vulnerabilities
are characteristic of
Jamaica
Vulnerability Profile of
Jamaica
1. ECONOMIC
Dependence on:
(Year 2000)
•
•
•
•
•
Manufacturing
Financial services
Tourism
Mining
Agriculture
(sugar & bananas)
- 15.8%
- 14.9%
9.2%
9.1%
7.1%
1. ECONOMIC
 (Relatively) Small population
• Small domestic markets
• Limited capacity to mobilize
domestic savings
2. ECOLOGICAL
 Susceptible to natural disasters
• Hurricane Allen, 1980 - category 4-5
• Hurricane Gilbert, 1988 - category 4-5
2. ECOLOGICAL
• Low-lying coast - vulnerable to
storm surge - potential for
extensive coastal damage
• Vulnerability of tourism
infrastructure to storm surge
Hurricane Gilbert Damages
•
•
•
•
•
•
Domestic crops
Roads
Education
Housing (44% of stock)
Tourism (hotels damaged)
Deaths
J$769.0 million
$ 39.0 million
$ 388.0 million
$
2.0 billion
86.0%
45
Also Mainly Coastal Geographic
Concentration
Negril, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, Port Antonio
35.3%
28.5%
21.5%
2.5%
2.2%
South Coast
10.5%
Kingston
2. ECOLOGICAL
• Modeling has shown that a
category 5 storm would generate
a 3-4 meter storm surge
• Extensive inland inundation
potential
Photo No. 1 of Montego Bay
Photo No. 2 of Montego Bay
2. ECOLOGICAL
• Extensive damages during
Hurricane Gilbert to all island
3. SOCIAL
 Location of settlements in
vulnerable areas:
• Coast
• Hilly/mountainous areas
• Flood plains (problem for Hurricane
Michelle)
Jamaica 1970-1998
Storm Related Fatalities
Year
Total Deaths:
by Floods
by Windstorms
1990-1998
8
8
0
1980-1989
172
110
62
1970-1979
91
85
6
Source: Em-Dat
3. SOCIAL
 Extensive outmigration of persons
at all levels of income
3. SOCIAL
High rates of natural increase
pressure on State for essential services
3. SOCIAL
• Unemployment
• Crime
Natural disasters serve to
underscore a country’s
peculiar vulnerabilities
Quantum of costs!
Gilbert 1998:
49 people killed
800,000 affected
200,000 homeless
Direct damage - US$956 million
Indirect damage - US$230 million
Total losses > 65% GDP
The Legacy of Michelle
Area of disturbed weather, 28 October 2001
Institutional/Operational
Constraints
• Lack of applied methodology
• Difficulties with organizational
structure - problems of coordination
Areas of Worse Damage
• Spanish River Watershed
• Swift River Watershed
Damages:
• Flooding
• Landslides
• Debris flow
Damages
• Infrastructure:
Access roads to bridges
Secondary roads
• Bridges:
Spanish River
Swift River
Westmoreland River
• Affected population:
5 lives lost
40,000 affected (lost electricity)
4,000 immediately affected
800 evacuated
Damages … Continued
• Community services: Schools, health clinics,
community centers
• Houses:
500 completely destroyed
• Agriculture:
1911 ha crops
(coffee, bananas)
Michelle Underscored Weaknesses in:
Data gathering protocols for assessing disasters impacts
Methodology for coordination
Physical planning/landuse planning
Watershed management
Preparedness for evacuation and sheltering
Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability
due to Man-made Impacts
Hurricane Michelle
Heavy rains
Steep slopes
Highly erodable soils
Geological faults
Intervention by man
Landslides
Flooding
Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability
due to Man-made Impacts
Intervention by Man
Rivers
Land
Clearing of river banks
Improper land use
Development or river beds
Deforestation (slopes)
Animal grazing in gullies
Use of fire to clear lands
Mining gravel and sand in beds
Clearing of steep slopes
Exacerbation of flooding
Landslides
Problems for Communities
& Infrastructure losses
Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow
Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow
Damage to Infrastructure
Michelle underscored:
Poor Land Use Planning:
Poor Settlement Strategy
Historical evidence that this phenomena
had occurred several times before
1837
1937
1940
1943
2001
Michelle also Underscored
Destructive Cultural Practices:
•
•
•
•
Cutting of trees for charcoal
Use of fire to clear land
Livestock grazing in river bed
Development of flood plains
Contributed to Impacts
 Michele emphasized the
economic dependence of
communities on agriculture
• Loss of coffee
• Loss of bananas
• Livestock losses
 Michelle underscored existing
vulnerabilities and points to the
need for long term investments
in:
• Watershed management
• Land use planning
Lessons Learnt in Post-Michelle
 Reconstruction process
must rebuild while
reducing vulnerability
 Implications for several issues,
including:
 Land use
 Cultural practices
 Settlement strategy
Objectives of this workshop are:
 To provide exposure in the
application of the ECLAC
Methodology in accessing the
effects of disasters
Objectives
 Point the way to policy changes
which can significantly reduce
Jamaica's vulnerabilities to
natural disasters over time.
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean
Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
P. O. Box 1113, Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago
Tel: 868-623-5595; Fax: 868-623-8485; e-mail: [email protected]
April 2002