Transcript A Socioeconomic Scenario

Vulnerability and
Adaptation to Dengue
Fever: A
Socioeconomic
Scenario
Charmaine Heslop-Thomas
and Wilma-Bailey*
AIM
 To
develop socioeconomic scenarios
to analyse the vulnerability of
communities in Jamaica to possible
increase in the transmission of
dengue and to propose actions that
can mitigate the effects
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
What areas of the country are vulnerable?
 What are the characteristics of the
individuals and households that are
vulnerable?
 What are the factors that are associated
with vulnerability?
 How will climate change impact on
transmission?
 What modifications can effect change?
 How can community based interventions
be encouraged and supported?

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
Proceed from macro to micro scale:
 Identify key sectors and current
conditions
 Identify data for dimensions of
current and future vulnerability
Macro highlights





More than three decades of economic difficulties
with few sectors showing growth trends.
Market problems for traditional exports. Inability
of domestic agriculture to compete with imported
products.
Manufacturing sector buffeted by high interest
rate policy and inability to retool.
Social environment and international
developments present challenges to tourism.
Large numbers but discounted rooms.
High levels of unemployment is the most
significant and persistent labour market trends
(between 15 and 16 percent).
Macro Cont’d
 High
levels of inflation with
devaluation and these have their
greatest impact on the poor.
 Poor performance of the economy
reflected in movements in the GDP.
 High percentage of GDP (42 percent)
goes toward debt repayment.
MOVEMENT IN GDP - JAMAICA
3
2
GDP
1
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-1
-2
Years
FOOD SECURITY AND POVERTY

There is a very sensitive and immediate
relationship between economic shocks and
food security (Table 1)
Table 1. Clinical Undernutrition (0 to 35 months) and Minimum
Wage
Year
Min. Wage as % of
Basket of Food
Admission for
undernutrition
1978
110
140
1980
98
168
1982
62
170
1984*
38
230
1986*
36
380
1988*
50
145
1990
48
190
1992**
20
310
*removal of food
subsidies
**devaluation
•Despite unfavourable economic trends the level of poverty
is declining
%
Figure 2: Percentage of persons in poverty in Jamaica, 1989 to 2001
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
year
Table 2 – Percentage below the poverty line Jamaica
Area
2000
2001
Jamaica
18.7
16.8
Rural
25.1
24.1
KMA
7.6
9.9
Other Towns
13.3
16.6


Absolute poverty focuses on the ability of households to purchase the basket of food.
The role of welfare provisions and remittances.
Vulnerability Data :
-occupation
-lack of skills
-livelihoods at risk
-welfare/remittances
-consumption patterns (food and nonfood)
-agricultural practices
-marketing arrangements
Housing
Unemployment and low wage affect
access to a range of basic serviceshousing for example.
 The discrepancy between the growth in
the number of new households in the
period 1991 to 2000 (79, 700) and the
growth in the housing stock (30, 308).
 The cost of basic housing units puts them
outside of the reach of the poor (Table 3)

Table 3-NHT Income Bands-Jamaica 1999
(J$)
Weekly
income
<1, 100
1, 1001
to
2,000
2,001 to
3, 000
3001 to
4,000
4001 to
5000
5001 to
6,000
>6000
Employed
257,907
228,215
121,780
54,812
31,753
15,602
25,117
%
34.6
30.6
16.3
7.4
4.3
2.1
4.7
Nearly 82% earn less than J$3,000 per week
Cost Profile of NHT Studio Unit (January 2001)
NHT/Building Society Mortgage (J$)
Purchase Price
Less Down-Payment
NHT Pari Passu
Building Society Loan
Monthly Repayment
NHT Loan (2% per annum)
Building Society Loan (14%) per annum
Building Insurance
Total
Required Income
1, 100,000
110,000
990,000
150, 000
3, 560.38
1, 805.65
363.97
5, 730.00
19, 100.00 per month
Cont’d
 The
growth of informal housing and
associated unacceptable practices.
 Fifty percent of households in the
island have access to flush toilets
 Seventy –one percent have access to
piped water (urban and rural
disparities) but in many cases, water
is piped into a common yard
necessitating storage
Vulnerability data
-measure: access to piped water
-types of storage
-sewage disposal facilities
-household waste
-overcrowding
SETTING THE BOUNDARIES OF THE
AREA TO BE STUDIED
 Inadequacy
of data – numerical and
spatial.
 Mapping of outbreaks to identify
spatial patterns.
 Selection of the parish of St. James
with 88 out of a reported 224 cases
in 1998.
 Setting the boundaries
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE OF TOILET
FACILITIES IN GRANVILLE/PITFOUR, ST. JAMES
1991
Number of households
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
pit
wc linked to
sewer
wc not linked to
sewer
other
none
Type of toilet facilities
Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica
not stated
Number of
households
NUM BER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE OF
TOILET FACILITIES IN JOHN'S HALL, ST.
JAM ES - 1991
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
P it
wc linked wc no t
to sewer linked to
sewer
no ne
Type of toilet facility
no t
stated
SOURCE OF WATER SUPPLY IN JOHN'S HALL, ST.
JAMES - 1991
350
Num ber of
households
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Stand Pipe
Piped into
dwelling
Spring or river Piped into yard
Source of w ater supply
Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica
NUMBER OF ROOMS OCCUPIED BY HOUSEHOLDS IN
JOHN'S HALL, ST. JAMES - 1991
Num ber of
households
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 and Not
over stated
Number of rooms
Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica
END