Transcript United States Energy Outlook and Policies Affecting the Outlook

United States Energy Outlook and
Policies Affecting the Outlook
Guy Caruso
Administrator
Energy Information Administration
Netherlands Institute of International Relations
The Hague
March 7, 2008
Energy Information Administration
• EIA was established by the Department of
Energy Organization Act of 1977
– Independent since its creation
• EIA does not promote, formulate, or take
positions on policy issues
• Outlook is based on EIA’s recently issued
Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Revised AEO2008 reference case
indicates that through 2030...
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U.S. energy demand grows at an average annual rate
of 0.7 percent
The energy efficiency of the economy improves at an
average annual rate of 1.7 percent
U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of
U.S. oil use, decreases over the next 25 years
U.S. natural gas use declines over the last decade of
the projection
Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends
on unconventional domestic production, natural gas
from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports
Carbon dioxide emissions from energy grow at an
average annual rate of 0.6 percent
Energy prices are expected to decline in the
near term, then rise
2006 dollars per million Btu
35
History
Projections
30
Electricity
25
20
15
Crude Oil
10
Natural Gas
5
Coal
0
1980
1990
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
World oil prices are higher than in previous
projections
2006 dollars per barrel
120
History
Projections
100
High Price
80
Reference
60
40
Low Price
20
0
1980
1995
2006
2015
2030
U.S. energy consumption grows slowly
quadrillion Btu
140
History
Projections
118.0
120
100
111.0
99.5
Renewables
103.3
Nuclear
Coal
80
60
Liquids
40
20
Natural Gas
0
2006
2010
2020
2030
The transportation sector dominates liquid fuel
consumption
million barrels per day
18
History
Projections
15
Transportation
12
9
6
Industrial
3
Residential and Commercial
Electric Power
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Domestic crude oil production grows in the near
term
million barrels per day
8
History
Projections
6
4
Lower 48 Onshore
2
0
1970
Lower 48 Offshore
Alaska
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Natural gas consumption grows over the next
decade, then declines slowly
trillion cubic feet
30
History
25
21.7
Projections
23.2
23.4
22.7
Transportation
Electric Power
20
15
Industrial
10
Commercial
5
Residential
0
2006
2010
2020
2030
U.S. electricity consumption grows slowly in all
sectors
billion kilowatthours
6,000
History
Projections
4,971
5,000
4,482
4,000
3,814
Industrial
4,037
3,000
Commercial
2,000
Residential
1,000
0
2006
2010
2020
2030
Natural gas generation offset by growth in coal,
nuclear, and renewables
billion kilowatthours
3,000
54
- percent of total
2,500
2006
2,000
2030
49
1,500
18
1,000
19
20
14
12
10
500
2
1
0
Coal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewable
Petroleum
The strongest growth in renewable generation is in
biomass and wind
billion kilowatthours
350
300
288
302
2006
2030
250
200
164
150
126
100
50
39
32
15
16
26
22
1
8
0
Hydropower
Geothermal
MSW
Biomass
Solar
Wind
A variety of fuel sources support the new
renewable fuel standard
billion credits
40
History
Projections
Legislated RFS Table Values
35
RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments
30
Liquids from Biomass
Biodiesel
Net Ethanol Imports
25
20
Ethanol
from Other
Feedstocks
Cellulose-Based Ethanol
15
10
Corn-Based
Ethanol
5
0
2006
2010
2020
2030
Carbon dioxide emissions grow at a slower rate
million metric tons
3,500
7,000
3,000
6,500
2,500
6,000
2,000
5,500
Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Electricity
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,500
1,000
500
0
2006 2030
Residential
2006 2030
Commercial
2006 2030
Industrial
Delivered, including losses
2006 2030
Transportation
2006 2030
Electric Power
Key Uncertainties in the Projections
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Macroeconomic growth
Energy prices
Technological changes
Government policy initiatives
U.S. Energy Policy
(based on Department of Energy)
• Increasing Energy Security remains a top priority of the
Bush Administration
• In 2001 the Administration issued the National Energy
Policy with over 100 recommendations.
• The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) was the first
comprehensive energy legislation passed by Congress in
over a decade.
• To complement the goals in EPAct, President Bush
proposed the Advanced Energy Initiative (AEI), American
Competitiveness Initiative (ACI), and the Global Nuclear
Energy Partnership (GNEP).
• In December 2007, the President signed the Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007.
Goal: Energy Security
The President’s initiatives further advance the
Administration’s goal to provide a long-term
strategy to confront energy challenges in a
balanced, comprehensive, and environmentallyresponsible way through diversification of supply
and suppliers, increased energy efficiency, and
modernization protection of the U.S. energy
infrastructure.
The Energy Independence and Security
Act of 2007
• Improves Fuel Economy
– Sets national fuel standard at 35 miles per gallon by
2020, which will increase fuel economy standards by
40 percent and save billions of gallons of fuel
• Expands production of renewable fuels
– Sets a mandatory Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion
gallons of biofuel by 2022 representing a nearly fivefold increase over current levels
• Responds to the President’s “Twenty in Ten”
Initiative
• Demands Energy Efficiency
– Federal buildings convert to Energy Star products by
2013 and new standards set for home appliances
Energy Agenda for 2008
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 goes a long
way, but the President has remaining energy proposals:
• Electric Power: Generate electric power using increased
cleaner coal technology, solar and wind energy, and
nuclear energy
• Domestic Supply of Oil: In a prudent and environmentallysensitive way, pass legislation opening access to
domestic energy sources such as the Outer Continental
Shelf and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Double the capacity to 1.5
billion barrels to protect against severe supply
disruptions
U.S. Climate Change Policy Approach:
Department of Energy Overview
• Harnesses the power of markets and technological
innovation, maintains economic growth, and
encourages global participation
• Reaffirms U.S. commitment to goal of United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Places climate change in a broader context that
includes enhancing energy security, encouraging
economic growth, and reducing air pollution
Five Basic Elements
• Advancing climate science to reduce
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uncertainties
Policies and measures to slow the growth in
greenhouse gas emissions with a
Presidential goal to improve U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions intensity 18
percent from 2002 to 2012
Accelerating technology development
Expanding finance and open trade in clean
energy goods and services
Promoting a new international framework for
collaboration
Major New Initiatives
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
• Renewable fuels mandate
• 36 billion gallons of biofuel annually by
2022, about 5 times current levels
• Vehicle fuel economy mandate
• 35 miles per gallon by 2020, a 40percent improvement saving more than
8 billion gallons annually
• Lighting mandate
• Phase out incandescent bulbs by 2014
• Appliance mandate
• Federal facility requirements
• Reduce energy consumption 30 percent
by 2015 and make new Federal
buildings carbon-neutral by 2030
Combined, these measures could reduce CO2
emissions by more than 7 billion metric tons
through 2030.
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Executive Order
Strengthening Federal
government environmental,
energy, and transportation
Management
Reduce oil consumption in
vehicles by 2 percent per year
Increase use of renewable
fuels by 10 percent per year
Improve energy efficiency by
30 percent in 10 years
Use more renewable power
Scale of the Global Challenge:
Why Developing Countries are Key
Business-As-Usual CO2 Emission Projections by Region, gigatons per year
90
80
70
50
Non-Annex I Emissions
Equal Annex I
Emissions
about 2015
Non-Annex 1
60
Africa
Middle East
Latin America
Southeast Asia
India
China
40
Korea
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
30
Japan
Annex 1
20
10
0
1990
2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
Australia_NZ
Western Europe
Canada
United States
2095
Data derived from Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research
Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007.
Periodic Reports
Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008
International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next issue May 2008
Examples of Special Analyses
“Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007
Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,
March 2004
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003
“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005
www.eia.doe.gov
Guy Caruso
[email protected]