Transcript Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Early Release

Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Early Release
Energy Information Administration
December 17, 2008
www.eia.doe.gov
Energy Information Administration
Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
The economy, oil prices, resources, policies,
and behavior drive the AEO2009 reference case
•
•
•
•
Long-term economic growth averages about 2.5 percent
per year between 2007 and 2030
World crude oil prices recover from a near-term decline
and reach $130 per barrel (in 2007 dollars) by 2030
A robust domestic natural gas resource base allows for a
steady expansion of production given projected growth in
demand and prices
Recently-enacted policies and concerns over greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions, combined with high energy prices,
moderate projected growth in energy consumption and
emissions
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2
Oil prices in the reference case rise steadily; the
full AEO includes a wide range of price cases
2007 dollars per barrel
220
History
200
Projections
180
High Price
160
140
Reference
120
100
80
60
Low Price
40
20
0
1980
1990
2000
2007 2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
3
Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels
still provide 79 percent of total energy use in 2030
quadrillion Btu
120
History
Projection
100
Coal
80
Natural Gas
60
Liquid Fuels
40
Liquid Biofuels
20
Renewables (excl liquid biofuels)
Nuclear
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
4
Energy use per dollar of GDP continues to
decline; per capita energy use also declines
index, 1990=1.0
1.2
History
Projections
1.0
Per capita
0.8
Per dollar
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
5
Net dependence on imported liquids declines
dramatically over the next 20 years
million barrels per day
30
History
Projections
25
20
Consumption
54% 41%
15
60%
58% Net Imports
10
Domestic supply
AEO2009 reference case
5
0
1970
AEO2008 reference case
1980
1990
2000
2010
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2020
2030
6
Petroleum-based liquids consumption is
projected to be flat as biofuels use grows
million barrels per day
25
History
Projections
Biofuels
20
15
Transportation
10
5
Industrial
Electric Power
0
1970
Residential and Commercial
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
7
New light-duty vehicle sales shift from light
trucks back to cars
percent of total sales
100
90
80
SUV
Van
Pickup
Mid/large
Sub/Compact
Mini/2-Seat
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2007
2015
2020
2030
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
8
Mild and full hybrid systems dominate new
light-duty vehicle sales by 2030
millions of sales
14
History
Projection
12
10
Electric Vehicle/Fuel Cell Vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
8
Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle
6
Gaseous
Flex Fuel
4
Diesel
2
0
2000
2007
2015
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
9
Biofuels use falls short of the 36 billion gallon
RFS target in 2022, but exceeds it by 2030
billion credits
50
Legislated RFS
40
30
RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments
Renewable Diesel
Biomass to Liquids (BTL)
Net Ethanol Imports
20
Biodiesel
Cellulose Ethanol
10
Ethanol
from Other
Feedstocks
Corn
Ethanol
0
2007
2022
2030
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
10
The import share of natural gas supply
declines sharply as domestic supply grows
trillion cubic feet
30
History
25
Projections
Consumption
3%
16%
20
Net Imports
14%
Domestic supply
AEO2009 reference case
15
AEO2008 reference case
10
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2025
2030
11
Unconventional production meets most growth
in natural gas demand and offsets the decline in
conventional production and imports
trillion cubic feet
30
History
Projections
25
20
Unconventional
15
10
Non-associated
offshore
Alaska
Associated-dissolved
Net imports
5
Non-associated conventional
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2025
2030
12
Growth in electricity use continues to slow
3-year rolling average percent growth
14
History
Projections
Period
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000-2007
2007-2030
12
10
8
Annual Growth
9.0
7.3
4.2
3.1
2.4
1.1
1.0
6
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
13
Electricity prices rise with higher capital and
fuel costs and growing demand
cents per kilowatthour
16
History
Projections
14
12
10
Real 2007
8
6
Nominal
4
2
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
14
Generation mix gradually shifts to lower
carbon options
billion kilowatthours
6,000
History
Projections
Oil & Other
5,000
Renewable
4,000
Nuclear
3,000
Natural Gas
2,000
Coal
1,000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
15
Nonhydropower renewable power meets 33% of
total generation growth between 2007 and 2030
billion kilowatthours
500
History
Projections
450
400
Solar
350
Geothermal
300
Waste
Wind
250
200
150
100
Biomass
50
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
16
Natural gas and renewables provide most of the
generating capacity added between 2007 and 2030
gigawatts
180
160
140
120
100
80
139
60
40
20
57
46
13
0
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
17
Growth in energy-related CO2 emissions slows
with slowing growth in energy use and a shift
to less carbon-intensive fuels
million metric tons
History
7000
Projections
AEO2008 reference case
6500
6000
AEO2009 reference case
5500
5000
4500
4000
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
18
Electricity generation is the dominant source of
CO2 emissions growth
million metric tons
3,500
3,000
AEO2008
2030
2,500
2007
2,000
Purchased Electricity
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
AEO2009
2030
1,500
1,000
500
0
Buildings
Industrial
Transportation
Electric Power
Generation
Delivered, including losses in electricity generation
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
19
Key results from AEO2009 reference case
•
•
•
•
•
•
World oil prices rise to higher levels due to growth in world
demand and more limited access to resources
U.S. oil use remains near its present level through 2030 as
modest growth in overall liquids demand is met by biofuels
U.S. dependence on imported oil, measured as a share of U.S.
liquids use, is expected to decline sharply over the next 25
years
Natural gas import share of total supply also declines sharply
due to increased domestic production with higher prices
Unconventional natural gas production, lead by gas shales, is
expected to provide the majority of growth in gas supply
Energy-related CO2 emissions grow at 0.3 percent per year,
absent any new policy to control emissions
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
20
Periodic Reports
Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
Annual Energy Outlook 2009, December 2008/ February 2009
International Energy Outlook 2008, August 2008
U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves 2007, October
2008 (Advance Summary), January 2009 (Full Report)
Examples of Special Analyses
Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,
May 2008
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate
Security Act of 2007, April 2008
“Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48
Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, December 2003
www.eia.doe.gov
Howard Gruenspecht
[email protected]
GHG regulatory uncertainty in the AEO2009
• Although no Federal legislation has been passed,
regional groups and State regulators are enacting
regulations and the financial community is behaving as if
they anticipate regulations
• Energy companies are being encouraged to shift
investments towards less GHG-intensive technologies
• To represent this behavior in the AEO2009 reference
case, a 3-percentage-point cost of capital penalty has
been added when evaluating investments in GHGintensive technologies
• This penalty is meant to represent the implicit cost being
added to GHG-intensive projects to account for the risk
that they may have to purchase allowances or make
other investments in the future to offset GHG emissions
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
22
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
(billion 2000 chain-weighted dollars)
Economic growth returns to trend after near term slow down
23,000
20,000
17,000
14,000
11,000
8,000
5,000
1980
1990
2000
AEO2009
2010
AEO2008
2020
2030
History
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
23
Peak to Trough Change in Real GDP
(Percent)
Reference Case Assumes Current Recession is Worse than
Past Two Recessions
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
1960
1969-70 1973-75
1980
1981-82 1990-91 2000-01 2008-09
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
24
Growth In Liquids Supply And Price
(Average Percent Per Year)
Demand for Liquid Fuels Grew More Rapidly than Non-OPEC
Supply over the Last Four Years
2.0
25
20
1.5
15
1.0
10
Volume 0.5
Growth
Rate 0.0
5
0
2000-2003
2003-2007
2007-2010
2010-2015
2015-2030
Price
Growth
Rate
-5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Total Liquids
Volume
Price
-10
-15
Non-OPEC Liquids
Difference in Growth Rates
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
-20
Price
25
New Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy
(miles per gallon, based on CAFE test)
Newly enacted CAFE standards in EISA will require significant
increases in light duty vehicle fuel economy
45
40
Car
35
Combined
30
Light Truck
25
20
15
10
History
5
Projection
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
26
New Alternative Light Vehicle Sales
(percent of total sales)
100%
Alternative light duty vehicle sales increase from 10 percent in
2007 to 63 percent by 2030
90%
80%
70%
History
Projection
60%
50%
40%
Electric Drive
30%
20%
Alternative Fuel Capable
10%
Diesel
0%
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
27
Components of Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day)
25
Higher world oil prices and technology dampen liquids
consumption through 2015 while the Renewable Fuel Standard
increases supply of a variety of biofuels. After 2015, the majority of
supply growth is met with biofuels.
20
Biofuels
Biofuels
15
Other
Fuels
10
Diesel
Petroleum
Based
Motor
Gasoline
5
0
2007
2015
2030
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
28
Commercial electricity sales drive growth
billion kilowatthours
2,000
Commercial
1,600
1,200
Residential
Industrial
800
400
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
2030
29