Transcript OME MEP Turkey

MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
MEP Turkey
TENVA
Ankara, 9 September 2014
MEP TURKEY
 Provides energy supply/demand
outlook to 2030
by sector
by fuel
 Two energy demand scenarios:
Conservative Scenario
Proactive Scenario
 CO2 emissions
 Energy import bill
 Energy investment requirements
THE ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS
The Conservative Scenario takes into current
policies and ongoing projects, but adopts a
cautious approach regarding the
implementation of new policy measures and
planned projects.
The Proactive Scenario assumes strong efforts
to diversify the energy supply mix to favor
domestic energy resources, clean energy
technologies and prompt implementation of
energy demand management programs.
Setting main model assumptions
Population
2013-2023: 0.9%
2023-2030: 0.8%
GDP
2013-2018: IMF WEO
2018-2030: 4.1%
Energy prices
International
Domestic
4
AN OVERVIEW OF
OVERALL RESULTS
ANA BAŞLIKLAR
SEKTÖREL ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, EKONOMİNİN YAPISINI
YANSITMAYA DEVAM EDECEK
KÖMÜRÜN STRATEJİK SEÇİMİ
PETROLE BAĞIMLILIK DEVAM EDECEK
DOĞAL GAZIN GELECEĞİ BİR YOL AYRIMINDA
ELEKTRİK TALEBİ KONTROL ALTINA ALINABILIR
YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ POTANSİYELİ BÜYÜK
KAZANIMLAR VADEDİYOR
FOSİL YAKIT KAYNAKLI KİRLİLİK BÜYÜYEN BİR SORUN
OLMAYA DEVAM EDECEK
İTHALATA BAĞIMLILIK ENERJİ FATURASINI
YÜKSELTECEK
ENERJİ SEKTÖRÜ BÜYÜK YATIRIMLAR GEREKTİRECEK
ULUSLARARASI ENERJİ MERKEZİ OLARAK TÜRKİYE
6
ENERGY DEMAND AND GDP
billion 2005 USD
using exchange rates
Mtoe
250
200
Energy demand-Proactive Scenario
Energy demand-Conservative Scenario
GDP
1400
1200
1000
150
800
100
600
400
50
0
200
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy demand is set to double in the Conservative Scenario.
20% less energy would be needed in Proactive Scenario.
PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL TYPE
Mtoe
250
7%
4%
6%
200
29%
150
Nuclear
9%
5%
10%
Hydro
Renewables
100
4%
6%
28%
50
30%
32%
31%
Oil
25%
23%
29%
22%
Coal
Natural Gas
0
1990
2012
CS-2023 CS-2030 PS-2023 PS-2030
Turkey’s energy future will remain fossil fuel based,
although the share of RES would increase to 15% in PS.
PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
100%
Agr iculture
90%
Commercial & Public
Ser vices
80%
70%
Other tr ansfor mation,
own use & losses
60%
Tr anspor t
50%
40%
Residential
30%
Industr y
20%
10%
Input to power
gener ation
0%
1990
2000
2012
2023CS 2030CS 2023PS 2030PS
More energy will continue to be consumed
to generate electricity than any other sector.
PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION
Will not increase as fast as demand
ANNUAL NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL
Mtoe
2012$ bn
180
110
160
100
90
140
80
120
70
100
60
80
50
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
0
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Will increase from $55 bn in 2012 to $104 bn in 2030
NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL
Cumulative net energy import bill over 2013-2030 will
be more than double that of 1970-2012.
NEED FOR SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS
Total investment need between 2013 and 2030
= $260 bn (in 2012 dollars)
(Of this, $173 bn between 2013-2023)
Electricity sector will account for
> 65% of this total,
It will be followed by oil (~ 25%)
ENERGY INTENSITY 1990-2030
Set to decrease in both Scenarios.
-5% reduction by 2030 in CS
-23% reduction in PS.
CO2 EMISSIONS 1990-2030
Mt of CO2
600
Proactive Scenario
400
36%
Conservative Scenario
200
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 emissions to double by 2030 in CS .
36% lower in the PS.
INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY:
Government Targets vs OME Scenarios
GW
40
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Government targets for non-Hydro RES could be
exceed in PS
FUEL SHARES IN POWER GENERATION:
Government Targets and OME Scenarios
50%
Government Target
40%
Conservative Scenario
Proactive Scenario
30%
20%
10%
0%
Renewables
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Future role of natural gas is the key
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
COAL
COAL PRODUCTION
Most of Turkey’s coal reserves are lignite.
Coal production to more than double between 2012 and 2030.
COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR
By 2030, coal demand will grow
~70% in CS and 23% in PS.
Power generation will account for half of coal demand.
COAL IMPORTS
Majority of the coal demand will continue to be met by imports.
Net coal imports (mostly hard coal)
may increase to >40 Mt (CS)
or decrease to 18Mt (PS) in 2030.
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
OIL
OIL & GAS
EXPLORATION
still largely
under/unexplored…..
Less than 4300
wells drilled
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Will continue to decline,
by almost 30% between 2012 and 2030,
assuming no major discovery
Oil consumption by end-use sectors
will more than double (CS) or nearly double (PS)
25
OIL PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION
By 2030, oil demand is expected to nearly double in the PS,
and more than double in the CS.
(Road) Transport will remain the largest oil consuming sector
…despite that pump prices of gasoline and diesel in Turkey
are amongst the highest in the world.
NET OIL IMPORTS
More than 90% of Turkey’s oil demand is met by imports.
Net total oil imports will continue to increase,
from over 30 Mt to ~ 70 Mt (CS) or ~60 Mt (PS) by 2030.
The share of crude in oil imports will be higher than today.
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
May increase next decade thanks to tight oil and shale gas,
but assuming no major discovery in the Med
GAS DEMAND BY SECTOR
Will continue to increase in CS
but slightly higher than its 2012 level in PS, due mainly to
power generation
TURKEY NET GAS IMPORTS
…expected to increase by ~70% between 2012 and 2030 (CS),
… approximately the same level (a few bcm higher) in the PS
SUPPLY CONTRACTS vs GAS IMPORT NEED
After 2022, supply may not cover the expected demand in CS
.
GAS IMPORT NEEDS vs INFRASTRUCTURE
Sufficient import capacity,
but there is room for Iraqi and East Med gas
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
ELECTRICITY AND RENEWABLES
ELECTRICITY DEMAND by sector
TWh
600
1%
2%
500
Tr anspor t
18%
400
17%
4%
2%
Agr iculture
18%
300
0.2%
2%
200
24%
19%
20%
21%
100
37%
Residential
15%
26%
Tr ansfor mation, Own
Use & Losses
Commercial & Public
Ser vices
38%
36%
Industr y
0
1990
2000
2012
2023CS 2030CS 2023PS 2030PS
Demand for electricity will more than double (CS) or
increase 60% (PS) between 2012 and 2030.
Industry will remain as the largest electricity
consuming sector.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION by fuel
TWh
600
500
12%
7%
400
20%
300
200
1%
3%
24%
24%
30%
28%
100
44%
0
1990
2012
Nuclear
Oil
17%
17%
28%
38%
Renewables
Hydro
Coal
27%
11%
Natural Gas
CS-2023 CS-2030 PS-2023 PS-2030
Electricity generation to increase by ~130% to 2030 in CS.
Would be 30% less in the PS.
INSTALLED ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY
GW
120
1%
7%
11%
19%
90
60
22%
30
1%
2%
5%
8%
23%
Nuclear
15%
Renewables
Oil
29%
Coal
33%
34%
Hydro
33%
37%
20%
Natural Gas
0
2012
CS-2023
CS-2030
PS-2023
PS-2030
To increase to 125 GW (CS) or 110 GW (PS)
The share of fossil fuel fired plants will decrease
to 52% in 2030 (CS),
while this decrease will be more pronounced (35%) in PS.
INSTALLED NON-HYDRO RES BASED POWER GEN CAPACITY
All non-hydro RES to increase in both scenarios.
Wind remains dominant in absolute values.
Solar PV has the fastest growth rates.
Wind: 2.3 GW  12 GW (CS), 20 GW (PS)
Solar : 0  1.3 GW (CS), 4.2 GW (PS)
Teşekkür
ederiz...
Contact: Pedro Moraleda
[email protected]