Transcript Mrs. Houda Ben Jannet Allal

Energy Prospects in
the Mediterranean
Region
Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal
Geneva, 31st May 2013
CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS
AND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD
7% of world population, 500 million people, 90
million more by 2030, nearly all in the South
10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a.
average growth to 2030
8% of world’s primary energy demand
Important energy corridor / energy hub
Several challenges calling for innovative energy
strategies
Security of supply concerns
Financial crisis and important socio-political changes
Particular vulnerability to climate change and its
impacts
ENERGY IN THE SMCS – COMMON DRIVERS AND
CHALLENGES AND ALSO DISPARITIES
Common
High demographic development and rapid urbanisation
around the littoral
High economic growth
Access to energy almost of all, efforts are still needed
Energy driver to the socio-economic development
Increasing climate change concerns and effects
Important disparities S/S and also S/N
Availability of conventional energy resources
From exporting to totally importing countries
Large disparities with NMCs
DISPARITIES, INTERDEPENDENCY AND
CONVERGENCE TENDENCY
TPES / capita (toe/cap)
3,5
3
2,5
2
PNM
1,5
PSM
1
0,5
CO2 / capita (tCO2/cap)
0
80
7
6
5
4
PNM
3
PSM
2
1
0
80
90
2000
2010
90
2000
2010
MEP 2011 - KEY
MESSAGES
BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE
Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not
sustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option:
Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to
2030.
CO2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, up
from 2200Mt currently.
Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth
rate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall
over 380 GW of additional capacity needed.
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy
mix and natural gas will overtake oil.
High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited
HIGH CHALLENGES IN THE SOUTH
Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head.
Electricity demand to multiply by 3
Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double.
THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE PATH
Mtoe
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK,
1 500
by Scenarios
Proactive Scenario
Conservative Scenario
GDP
1 400
1 300
GDP (billion dollars
(ppps 2005))
12 500
- 12%
1 200
1 100
10 500
8 500
1 000
900
6 500
800
700
1990
4 500
2000
2010
2020
2030
Under a Proactive Scenario:
• Savings in primary (12%) and final energy (10%)
• Overall demand and CO2 emissions just grow 20%
• Less fossil fuel imports, less generation capacity needed
ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
Mtoe
1400
Renewables
& Waste
1200
Hydro
1000
Nuclear
800
Gas
600
400
Oil
200
Coal
0
1990
2009
CS 2030
PS 2030
The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%)
Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in an
alternative scenario
RES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today
HEAVY RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS WILL ENDURE
Mtoe
MEDITERRANEAN FOSSIL FUEL DEMAND AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
2009
1200
Conservative Scenario 2030 Proactive Scenario 2030
1000
800
600
400
Gas
200
Oil
Coal
0
Demand Production
Source: OME
Demand Production
Demand Production
GAS ERA AND OIL PEAK
bcm
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
GAS EXPORT POTENTIAL
2010
Algeria
Egypt
CS 2030
Libya
PS 2030
Israel
Export capacity would substantially increase under
the Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD
TWh
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION
3000
South
2000
46%
42%
Nor th
30%
1000
16%
54%
58%
Conser vative
2030
Proactive
2030
70%
84%
0
1990
2009
Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple
by 2030.
ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED
IN SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN
GW
120 GW
350
321 GW
289 GW
Non - hydro Renewables
300
250
200
13%
Hydro
Nuclear
14%
Gas
3%
Oil
Coal
15%
150
100
50
28%
2%
18%
49%
50%
6%
40%
6%
17%
16%
14%
5%
5%
2009
2030 CS
2030 PS
200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand.
32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.
DIFFERENT DECOUPLING PATTERNS
toe/thousand US$
KWh/thousand
0.16
US$
0.28
0.14
0.23
0.12
0.1
Med PS
- Energy Intensity
Med CS
- Energy Intensity
Med PS
- Electricity intensity
Med CS
- Electricity intensity
0.18
0.13
0.08
0.08
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Energy intensity is decreasing leading to a decoupling
of GDP and energy demand.
Electricity intensity could continue increasing.
14
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Mtoe
1000
900
Potential Negatoes
Conservative
Total Final Consumption
Proactive Total Final Consumption
Conservative Total Final Consumption
-10%
800
700
600
500
400
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
10% of the regional energy consumption can be saved
through energy efficiency measures by 2030.
15
OUTLOOK FOR CO2 EMISSIONS
Mt CO2
3 000
2 500
Conservative Scenario
Proactive Scenario
Conservative Scenario
- 20%
2 000
1 500
1 000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
In the Conservative Scenario, CO2 emissions would
increase +40% (reaching 3000Mt) in 2030.
Only +9% in the Proactive scenario (600Mt less).
16
TO CONCLUDE – COMMON VISION AND
INNOVATIVE & ADAPTED SOLUTIONS
For a successful energy transition targeted by all
Regional cooperation is a must, common vision but
adapted strategies, policies and measures are needed
Considering its high impacts, EE should be given first
priority. RE are also very much needed
An alternative path: possible but pending on actions
and means allowing removal of the existing barriers
Demonstration, capacity building, technology transfer,
best practices exchange, innovative financing schemes …
All energy sources are needed
RDD&I is very much needed and plays a major role in
promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth
and job creation (very important)
Water, energy and climate change, closely interrelated
and important for the sustainable development in the
region
THE WAY FORWARD
Mediterranean countries have a common interest
in preparing together their long-term future
No unique or standard solution, but
sustainability implies:
Promotion of energy efficiency both on supply side and
demand side - energy sobriety
Preservation and reasonable use of fossil fuels
Promotion of RE and in particular solar energy
Strengthening of the electric grid S/S and S/N to
integrate new plants
Technology transfer and capacity building
A COMMON BOOK OME MEDGRID
www.ome.org
Thank you for your attention
Dr. Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL
[email protected]
Kuraymat CSP plant, Egypt