Transcript EUCERS Unconventional Gas

Overview of Megatrends in Energy Policy
Venice World Conference
September 23, 2013
Prof. Dr. Friedbert Pflüger
European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS)
Department of War Studies, King’s College London
Agenda
1
Diminished salience of global climate change policy
2
Rising energy demand
3
A “Green Revolution” is underway…
4
…but fossil fuels remain!
5
Rising energy nationalism and imperialism
6
Heightened risks to critical infrastructures
7
No “Renaissance”, but nuclear power is here to stay
1. Diminished salience of global climate change policy
 Slim chance of the international community reaching a globally binding climate
agreement
 Global paradigm change: Climate change has lost some of its salience
worldwide and has clearly taken a backseat to economic priorities.
 The topic of climate change will clearly lose ground to issues pertaining to
economic growth, competitiveness, affordable energy, and energy security.
 However, the increasing recurrence of natural disasters like major floods and
tropical storms with a certain degree of regularity will prevent the climate issue
from being forgotten altogether.
Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2011
Number of events with trend
Source: Munich RE, GeoRisikoForschung, NatCatSERVICE, 2012.
2. Rising energy demand
 Global energy demand is expected to rise by 26% until 2030.
 Three primary long-run trends will drive this rise in global energy demand over
the short to medium term:
1.
Population growth
2.
Economic expansion
3.
Urbanization
Population growth
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, medium variant; 2011.
Urbanization - Mega-cities with over 10 million inhabitants
40
Number of cities
Population (millions)
37
700
630
35
600
30
25
500
23
20
400
15
300
10
10
5
200
100
2
0
1970
1990
359
2011
2025
145
40
0
1970
1990
2011
2025
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Pop. Div. (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision.
3. A “Green Revolution” is underway…
Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity and Biofuels
Production, 2005–2011
Source: Renewables Global Status Report, 2012
 The IEA estimates that the share of renewables in global electricity generation,
excluding large hydropower, will increase from about 5% today to 15% in 2035
Estimated renewable energy share of global
power production, 2012
Non-hydro
renewables
5.2%
Hydropower
16.5%
Fossil fuels
and nuclear
78.3%
Source: Renewables Global Status Report, 2012
4…but fossil fuels remain!
Global Primary Energy Mix 2030
Renewable
energy,
hydro, and
nuclear
~20%
Fossil fuels
~80%
Source: BP, 2012
A. Oil
World primary oil demand by scenario
Source: IEA WEO, 2011
B. Coal
World primary coal demand by scenario
Source: IEA WEO, 2011
C. Natural gas
World primary gas demand by scenario
Source: IEA WEO, 2011
Significant increase in the available supply of oil and gas
1350
1100
2000
2010
155
Oil (billion barrels)
Source: Petroleum Economist, 2011
187
Natural gas (billion cubic meters)
The US is becoming more energy independent
US daily oil imports
(million barrels)
US daily oil production
(million barrels)
7,8
8000
7500
7000
15000
10000
13,6
11,3
6,8
5000
6500
0
6000
2007
Source: BP, 2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
5. Rising energy nationalism and imperialism
Argentina nationalizes the country‘s
Bolivia seizes the the local assets of
largest oil company YPF – a subsidiary
Spanish power company Red Electrica
of Spain‘s Repsol
Corporation
Sources: www.m24digital.com; Reuters
6. Heightened risks to critical infrastructures
• We are already witnessing a rise in the frequency of attacks on critical
infrastructures being carried out both by violent non-state actors as well as
(covertly) nation-states.
• The biggest threats to critical infrastructures are likely to come in the form of
cyber-espionage and cyber-attacks.
• Ironically, the more technologically advanced and complex modern critical
infrastructures become, so too does their vulnerability to cyber attacks
increase.
7. No “Renaissance”, but nuclear power is here to stay (1)
• Despite higher risks to critical infrastructures through sabotage or natural
disasters, the global deployment of nuclear power will continue, albeit at a
slower pace than perhaps anticipated.
• Possible implications arising from the Fukushima catastrophe such as tighter
safety regulations, delayed investments, higher risk premiums, as well as
increased public resistance could likely decelerate the rate of global nuclear
expansion, especially in industrialized countries where the concentration of
existing nuclear plants is greatest.
7. No “Renaissance”, but nuclear power is here to stay (2)
• The global deployment of nuclear power will continue, albeit at a slower pace
than perhaps anticipated.
• Implications arising from the Fukushima catastrophe could likely decelerate the
rate of global nuclear expansion
• Nevertheless, global nuclear capacity will still trend upwards in the coming
years primarily due to developments in emerging economies.
• According to the IEA, of the 67 reactors currently under construction
worldwide, 55 are centered in non-OECD countries; China (28), Russia (11), and
India (6) alone account for 67%.
• However, cost and safety issues regarding decommissioning and waste
management remain important challenges.
The hope? Technological innovation and a well-functioning market economy
• Energy efficiency
• Cost-effective and controlled use of carbon capture and storage (CCS)
• New storage technologies
• Efficiency gains in conventional and unconventional energy use,
• Substitution of oil with natural gas or hydrogen in the transport sector
• Smart grids
The hope? Technological innovation and a well-functioning market economy
• Energy efficiency
• Cost-effective and controlled use of carbon capture and storage (CCS)
• New storage technologies
• Efficiency gains in conventional and unconventional energy use,
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
• Substitution of oil with natural gas or hydrogen in the transport sector
• Smart grids