Transcript NS4053 Social and Policy approaches to Energy Security

NS4053
Theories of International Relations
and Energy Security
Week 4.1
Theories of International Politics
• Realism
– Structural realism
• Liberalism
• Marxism
• Goals of theory:
– Analytical
– Predictive
– Normative
Realism
• View of world:
pessimistic, zero sum
• Unit of analysis: state
• Nature of system: anarchy
• Structure of system: distribution of
capabilities (balance of power)
• State interests: survival, self-help, relative
gains
Realist concerns about energy security
• Access to energy resources
• Growing scarcity of energy
• State competition over access to scarce
resources
• Wealth derived from energy flowing to weak,
unstable countries that are hostile, revisionist,
‘rogue states’.
• State conflict over energy
Liberalism
• View of world: optimistic
• Unit of analysis: States act on
a crowded stage.
• Nature of system: anarchy tempered by …
– International institutions
– Democratic peace
• Structure of system: distribution of
capabilities and institutionalized cooperation.
• State interests: survival and absolute gains
Liberalist concerns about energy
security
• Dark underbelly of energy
– Resource curse and rentier states
– Resource wars
– Dirty politics
• What needs to be done
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Transparency
Accountability
Good governance and corporate social responsibility
Economic liberalization and freer markets for energy
Marxism
• View of world: pessimistic
• Unit of analysis: social classes
– State is the executive committee of the ruling class
• Nature of system: ordered by wealth
• Structure of system: rich countries exploit weak
countries.
• State interests: reflect the interest of economic
elites.
– Core states (developed): exploitative
– Periphery (underdeveloped): dependent
Marxist concerns about energy
security
• West efforts to manipulate
international politics and
energy supplies to
preserve economic
dominance.
• Political and economic
consequences of dependency
in peripheral energy producers.
– Underdevelopment
– Repressive politics
– Entrenched economic elites
Assessing threats
Brazil
Iran
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Population: ~ 196 million
GDP: $2.48 trillion
Armed forces: 327K/1.3M res.
Defense budget: $28 billion
Nuclear fuel cycle: Yes
Nuclear bomb design: Yes?
Missile technology: Yes
Proximity: Closer
NPT member: Yes
NPT AP in place: No
Energy producer: hydro,
nuclear, oil, biomass
Population: ~ 75 million
GDP: $331 billion
Armed forces: 545K/1.8M res.
Defense budget: $9.2 billion
Nuclear fuel cycle: Yes?
Nuclear bomb design: ?
Missile technology: Yes
Proximity: Farther
NPT member: Yes
NPT AP in place: Yes
Energy producer: mostly oil
Geopolitics of Energy
• Harris’ concerns:
– Rise of China and Asia energy demand
– End of cheap energy
– Altered balance between international and
national oil companies
– Growing importance of Middle East and Russia for
generating exportable fossil fuels.
Implications of rising cost of energy?
• What if China and India were to have similar
GDP and energy use patterns as US?
• New fields coming online are more costly to
extract and refine.
• Shift from oil to unconventional fuels not likely
to happen fast enough to hold prices down.
• Who gets the revenues?
Who controls energy production?
• Rise of National Oil Companies
– Control most liquid fossil fuels reserves.
– Not solely motivated by economic concerns.
• Exportable liquid fossil fuels mostly
concentrated in Mid East and Russia.
• How does this affect states’ foreign policies?
• How does this affect possibility of conflict?
Implications for policy
• What kind of relations with China, Middle East
and Russia
• How to mitigate risks to access and supply?