Transcript 01.10.09 The A to C of Transition

PEAK OIL
THE LONG EMERGENCY
GLOBAL
WARMING
ECONOMIC
INSTABILITY
“The Long Emergency is an opportunity to
pause, to think through our present course, and
to adjust to a saner path for the future. We had
best face facts: we really have no choice. The
Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. It is
also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot better.
Let’s not squander this moment.”
—Albert Bates (paraphrased)
The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook
“Inherent within the challenges of peak oil
and climate change is an extraordinary
opportunity to reinvent, rethink
and rebuild the world around us.”
—Rob Hopkins
The Transition Handbook
“The real issue of our age is how we make
a graceful and ethical descent.”
David Holmgren
Permaculture: Principles and Pathways
Beyond Sustainability
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The challenge of global climate change
makes a shift away from fossil fuels
necessary for planetary survival.
The impending peak in oil and gas
production means that the transition is
inevitable.
Our only choice is whether to proactively
undertake the transition now—or later.
“I believe that a lower-energy, more localized
future, in which we move from being
consumers to being producer/consumers,
where food, energy and other essentials are
locally produced, local economies are
strengthened and we have learned to live more
within our means is a step towards something
extraordinary, not a step away from something
inherently irreplaceable.”
—Rob Hopkins
The Transition Handbook
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Local production of food, energy and goods
Local development of currency, government
and culture
Reducing consumption while improving
environmental and social conditions
Developing an exemplary community that can
be a working model for other communities
when the effects of energy decline become
more intense
“The most radical thing
you can do
is stay home.”
—Gary Snyder
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Percentage of food consumed
locally that was produced
within a given radius
Ratio of car parking space to
productive land use
Degree of engagement in
practical relocalization work by
local community
Amount of traffic on local
roads
Number of businesses owned
by local people
Percentage of local trade
carried out in local currency
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Proportion of the community
employed locally
Percentage of essential goods
manufactured within a given
radius
Percentage of local building
materials used in new housing
developments
Number of 16-year-olds able
to grow 10 different varieties
of vegetables to a given degree
of basic competency
Percentage of medicines
prescribed locally that have
been produced within a given
radius
“…I have become fascinated by how we apply
these principles to whole towns, whole
settlements, and in particular, to how we
design this transition in such a way that people
will embrace it as a common journey, as a
collective adventure, as something positive…
How can we design descent pathways which
make people feel alive, positive and included in
this process of societal transformation?”
—Rob Hopkins
“The future with less oil could be preferable to
the present, if we are able to engage with
enough imagination and creativity
sufficiently in advance of the peak…”
—Rob Hopkins
“It takes a lot of cheap energy to maintain the
levels of social inequality we see today, the
levels of obesity, the record levels of
indebtedness, the high levels of car use and
alienating urban landscapes. Only a culture
awash with cheap oil could become de-skilled
on the monumental scale we have.”
—Rob Hopkins
…A creative, engaging, playful process,
wherein we support our communities through
the loss of the familiar and inspire and create
a new lower energy infrastructure which is
ultimately an improvement on the present.
“Transition is a replicable strategy for
harnessing the talent, vision,
and goodwill of ordinary people.”
—Richard Heinberg
For all those aspects of life that this community
needs to sustain itself and thrive, how do we:
 dramatically reduce carbon emissions (in
response to climate change);
 significantly increase resilience (in response
to peak oil);
 greatly strengthen our local economy (in
response to economic instability)?
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Life with less energy is inevitable, and it is
better to plan for it than be taken by surprise.
We have lost the resilience to be able to cope
with energy shocks.
We have to act for ourselves and we have to
act now.
By unleashing the collective genius of the
community we can design ways of living that
are more enriching, satisfying and connected.
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Care of the Earth—
rebuild natural capital
Care of People—look
after self, kin and
community
Fair Share—set limits
to consumption and
reproduction, and
redistribute surplus
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Our vision is a future where life is more socially
connected, more meaningful and satisfying, more
sustainable, and more equitable in a greater
community of relocalized communities…
Where production and consumption occur closer
to home…
Where long and fragile supply chains—now
vulnerable to surges in oil prices and economic
volatility—have been replaced by interconnected
local networks…
Where the total amount of energy consumed by
businesses and citizens is dramatically less than
current unsustainable levels…
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Set up an initiating
group
Raise awareness
Lay the foundations
(partnering)
Organize a Great
Unleashing
Form groups
Use Open Space
Technology
Develop visible,
practical projects
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Facilitate the Great
Reskilling
Build bridges to local
government
Honor and engage
the elders
Create an Energy
Descent Action Plan
(EDAP)
Let it go where it
wants to go
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..and design its evolution from the outset!
Collaborate
where possible
Co-operation,
not competition
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this
evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Up and Running
Arts / Food / Energy /
Economics / Liaison with Local
Government / Heart and Soul –
the psychology of change /
Medicine and Health /
Housing / Education /
Transport
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007
Skilling Up for
Powerdown
Peak Oil / Climate Change,
Permaculture Principles, Food,
Energy, Building and Housing,
Woodlands, Water, Waste,
Economics, The Psychology of
Change, Energy Descent Planning…
• Cultivate positive and
productive
relationships.
• You may be pushing
against an open door!
• Government should
support, not drive.
• Collaborate on
community plan.
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Start with a vision and
then backcast
Incorporate Transition
Tales
Base it on current
planning documents
“Your EDAP should feel like a holiday brochure,
presenting a localized, low-energy world in
such an enticing way that anyone reading it will
feel their life utterly bereft if
they don’t dedicate the rest of their lives
towards its realization.”
—Rob Hopkins
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Focus on the questions
Unleash the collective
genius of the community
Any sense of control is
illusory
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Deeply rooted in Permaculture principles and ethics
Cultivates positive visioning
Provides training in the practical skills needed for a postoil society
Recognizes the psychological side of the process of change
Encourages inclusiveness, openness to peer-to-peer
feedback
Promotes non-hierarchical, distributed decision-making
Enables sharing and networking
Balances inner/outer, left/right brain, masculine/feminine,
young/old
Provides a replicable model, a clear pathway
Engages whole communities in the process
Scalable and adaptable to particular communities
Spreads like wildfire!
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Transition is a social experiment on a
massive scale; we don’t know if this will work.
If we wait for the governments, it’ll be too
little, too late.
If we act as individuals, it’ll be too little.
But if we act as communities, it might be just
enough, just in time.
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The Transition movement is the result of real
work undertaken in the real world with
community engagement at its heart. There’s
not an ivory tower in sight, no professors in
musty oak-paneled studies churning out
erudite papers, no slavish adherence to a
model carved in stone.
This work, just like the Transition model, is
brought to you by people who are actively
engaged in Transition in a community—people
who are learning by doing and learning all the
time, people who understand that we can’t sit
back and wait for someone else to do the work.
People like you, perhaps…