Transcript Peak Oil. - Transition Lancaster

Peak Oil
Transition Training 2008
1
2
Typical Oil Well
Transition Training 2008
Two Typical Oil Fields
3
Forties Field UK Sector
North Sea
700
Ann. Prod. Gb
600
500
400
300
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
200
100
0
0
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
Cum Prod. Gb
Transition Training 2008
8
9
10
10
12
Peak Production
Follows Peak Discovery
10000
25
8000
20
6000
15
4000
10
5
2000
0
0
1950 1970
1990 2010 2030
2050
14000
30
12000
25
10000
20
8000
15
6000
10
4000
5
2000
0
0
1930
1950
1970
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Discovery Gb
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1970
1990
Transition Training 2008
2010
2030
2050
Discovery Gb
6
1930
2010
2030
2050
Egypt
Production kb/d
Indonesia
1990
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1930
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Production kb/d
1930
35
Production kb/d
30
Discovery Gb
Russia
Production kb/d
Discovery Gb
USA
4
UK Production Profile
Transition Training 2008
5
6
Global Oil Discovery and Production
Transition Training 2008
When Is The Global Oil Peak?
Transition Training 2008
7
Oil producers (98)
8
Post peak oil producers (64)
www.lastoilshock.com
Transition Training 2008
Exports from oil producers
Transition Training 2008
9
80:20 Rule
The world’s giant oilfields are in steep decline
Transition Training 2008
10
WHERE WE GET OUR ENERGY
Transition training 2008 Source: ExxonMobile web site
11
If peak oil was imminent, what sorts of things
would be happening as warning signs
‘the Canary in the Coal mine’?
Transition training 2008
12
Why Is Oil So Important?
How Many Men Does It Take To Push a Car?
Transition Training 2008
13
What Do We Use Oil For?
Transition Training 2007
Transition Training 2008
14
15
No Country Has Yet Decoupled
Economic Growth From Energy Use
Transition Training 2008
The Carbon Cycle
The atmosphere
holds about 750
GtC
Dead Organisms
Oceans 40,000 GtC
Fossil
CO2
Transition Training 2007
Vegetation about
600 GtC
Soils 1600 GtC
16
What Is Climate Change?
Transition Training 2007
17
Is it Proven?
Transition Training 2007
18
What are the main problems
with out of control CC?
Transition Training 2007
19
20
CO2 Levels Over the Past 60000 Years
381 ppm
2006
Ron Oxburgh
Transition Training 2007
21
The Urgent Need for a Response
Transition Training 2007
22
22
23
Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change
PEAK OIL
• Burn everything!
• Relaxed drilling
regulations
• Biofuels
• Tar sands and
non- conventional
oils
• Resource
nationalism
• Resource Wars
PO+CC=
CLIMATE CHANGE
Systems Re-Think • Climate engineering
• Carbon capture and
storage
• Planned Relocalization
• International
emissions trading
• Local Resilience
• Climate adaptation
• Nuclear power
• Energy Descent
Action Plan
fini
Peak Oil & Climate Change
PEAK OIL
(a la Hirsch et al.)
 coal to liquids
 gas to liquids
 relaxed drilling
regulations
 massively scaled
biofuels
 tar sands and nonconventional oils
 resource
nationalism and
stockpiling
PLANNED
RELOCALISATION
 local resilience
 carbon reduction
 consume closer to home
 produce closer to home
 play closer to home
 decentralised energy
infrastructure
 the Great Reskilling
 localised food
 local medicinal capacity
 local currencies
 Energy Descent Plans
CLIMATE CHANGE
(a la Stern et al.)
 climate engineering
 carbon capture and
storage
 tree-based carbon
offsets
 international
emissions trading
 climate adaptation
 improved
transportation
logistics
 nuclear power
What can be done?

Global
– Oil Depletion Protocol
– Contraction and Convergence
– Kyoto

National
– TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing)

Community
– Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural

Personal
– “The work that reconnects”
– lessons from addiction counselling
– getting Gaia’ed