Transcript Hot Stuff Is Global Climate Change Real ?

Renewable Energy
Workshop
What’s Driving the Shift
To
Renewable Energy ?
The Global Picture
Global System
“Everything is Connected to Everything Else”
Biodiversity
Business
Water
Population
Land - Food
Poverty-Wealth
Sustainability
Energy
Technology
Globalization
Human Health
Climate Change
It is a Complex Puzzle
Climate
Change
Population Increase
“A Stressor”
Demands on Ecosystem
Energy
False
Sense of
Security !
Water
Land
(Heat, Light, Travel)
(Life, Fun, Waste)
(Food, Factories, Families)
Overuse & Abuse
Energy Depletion &
Air Pollution
Law of the Commons
Water Pollution/Depletion
Biodiversity Shift
Land Abuse/Fragmentation
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Law of the Commons  System Stress
Limited
Resources

Planetary System



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Energy
Water
Food
Habitat
Who falls off the Train ?
Those Who Fail to Seek and
Capture Opportunities through
Continuous Learning
Knowledge Can Change Everything!!
The Benefit to Companies and Communities
+
Being well prepared and positively positioned
to change threats to opportunities….
Don’t Blink
Opportunity Moves Quickly !
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
Global Threats
• Climate Change
• Population
• Energy Status
Climate
Change
Global Climate Change
++++++++++
“A Legacy of Progress”
“During the past 20,000 years, a 5 to 6C change in
temperature dramatically altered regional distribution of
forests, prairies and wetlands….
The past 150 years has witnessed the 1st, and now
the 2nd, Industrial Revolution
During the next 75 years, or less, we may be facing
temperature increases in Ontario that equal or eclipse
these levels – our thirst for the fossil fuels and what they
provide is contributing significantly to this situation.
CO2 Rise & Temperature - 2000
CO 2
60 ppm increase
In 50 Years
o
Temperature C
1.8 oF increase
globally
A Disconcerting Trend  Rate of CO2 Increase
1950 – 1990  1.0 ppm
1990 – 2000  1.8 ppm
2001 – 2005  3.0 ppm
Climate in Ontario
In Just 35 – 55 Years ?!
Boreal
7.2 – 9.0°F
Great Lakes
St. Lawrence
5.4 – 7.2°F
Oak-Hickory
or Prairie ?
3.6 – 5.4°F
Implications of System Stress

Climate-induced changes, particularly over a short
time frame, represent a significant stress – one
that is likely to be expressed by significant
mortality of species incapable of relatively rapid
adjustment

Stress pre-disposes the terrestrial systems to
attack by insects, disease and/or fire.
Stress is Cumulative, and Once Stressed,
a System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent Stress
Drought
Insect Attack
Death
Fungus Attack
Population
Population
Additional Tid-Bits
Global Population doubled in 40 years,
will it double again by 2050 ??

Population - Billions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Even if birth rate declines the
net affect is upward due to:
• life expectancy  today’s baby girl
?
• “fix your body” technology

1950
1975
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
2000
2050
China + India = 2,500,000,000
Growth = 1.2% / year. So?
Impact on Finite Resources
“Energy”
Energy
World Oil Production 1930-2050
Cheap Oil is Going…Going….
Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling, etc.
Millions of Barrels / Day
70
Mean-Case Scenario
Rate of decline
is based on
past post-peak
declines
60
50
40
Rate of increase is
tied to population
and industrialization
Global
Peak
30
20
U.S.
Peaked
10
1930
1950
1970
Kuwait
To Peak
1990
2010
2030
2050
How Long Will it Really Last ??
Population Since Oil  2 to 6 billion
“1st Trillion Gone”
Peak Time
Oil
Remaining
Population Next 40 Years  6 to 9 billion
“ Remaining Trillion ???”
Plus
Industrialization
of China, India
& Others
Range of
likelihood
20
Absolute maximum
before oil runs out
Best current
guess
40
60
80
Years Remaining
Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling etc.
100
So, Is The Party Over ?
Ole Saudi Proverb
My father rode a camel
I drove a car
My grandson will ride a camel
My son fly’s a jet
Energy Choices
What About
The
Tar Sands ?
20% of Canada’s Natural Gas is
used to extract tar sands oil !!
plus 25% of Alberta’s
fresh water supply !
Solar 1%
Petroleum
30%
Global
“Cheap”
Peak is
Close
Natural Gas
24%
Depletion
Imminent
Nuclear Electric
Power
8%
Alcohol Fuel 1%
Waste 8%
?
$&
Fear
Wood 38%
Dirty
Stuff
Renewal
Energy
7%
Coal
23%
5 Million Chinese work in 25,000
coal mines  70% of the Energy
Wind 1%
Conventional
Hydroelectric
46%
Geothermal 2%
Renewable Energy in Ontario
“Growing the Percent of Renewable
(& Recyclable) Options”
Biofuels
What’s the Strategy ??
Wind On-Shore
Energy Required
Tide & Wave
Wind Off-Shore
Geothermal – Heat
Geothermal – Electric
Biomass/Biogas - Heat
Biomass/Biogas - Electric
Solar Heat
Solar Electric
Micro-Hydro
2005
2020
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
So, are “WE” Ready to
Change ?
Top Oil Consumers
“ Where Does Canada Sit” ?
Millions of Barrels per Day
2002
2025
30
20
10
0
US
China
Japan
Russia
India
Brazil Canada
But! Per capita Canada is 3rd
North American Culture For Energy
Motivated to Change…???
Not Conservation Friendly
More Efficient
Urban
Sprawl
Less Dispersed
Greener
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We are Not Afraid of a Challenge
and
We are Creative !!!
There’s Plenty of Oil !
What Oil Peak ?
The North American
Compromise
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
Making it Work
Expert Team
Business Development
Business Management
Project Financing
Markets & Marketing
Biomass Procurement
Permitting/Regulations
Mechanical Engineer
Chemical Engineer
Biology/Ecology
Etc……
Team
Preparedness
Assets & Infrastructure
Taxes and Incentives
Municipal Zoning
Relevant Resources
NIMBY Concerns
Sector-Specific Attributes
• Bio-Energy
• Remediation
Liaison Services
Etc……..
Team
Due Diligence
You are the Local Expert
Due Diligence
• Business Acumen
• Markets
• Supply
• Technology/Product
• Financing
• Competitors
• Credibility & Trust
Etc……
Prepare – Position – Promote
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
Parting Messages

Energy demand will trump supply – Prices will rise

Environmental consequences of Fossil Fuels are unacceptable

Threats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive and help mitigate
price increases

Learning Teams (Communities of Practice) are Essential for
residential/farm cooperatives, companies and communities

Conserve 1st - You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck
Parting Messages

Explore cooperative ventures  Optimize Your Energy Solution

Employ Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Focus on Renewables and Recyclables

Accommodate and Enable Small Business Development

Be progressive, patient, practical and persistent
A New Day has Come !
Selected Readings
1.
Boom, Bust & Echo. David K Foot
2.
Weather Makers. Tim Flannery
3.
ZOOM. Iain Carson & V.V. Vaitheeswaran
4.
A Thousand Barrels A Second. Peter
Tertzakian
5.
Why Mexicans Don’t Drink Molson.
Andrea Mandel-Cambell
6.
Fueling the Future. Heintzman
7.
The Long Emergency. James Kunstler
8.
Dry Spring. Chris Wood