Transcript Energy Efficiency and CHP

Peak Oil Perspectives
Bob Everett
Open University
EERU
April 2008
IEA Forecast,
2001
Graphic:
Open University

The IEA’s assessment is that oil (and gas) reserves are
sufficient to sustain economic growth “for the foreseeable
future”, and “to meet anticipated increases in world energy
demand through to 2030”.
Sir David King, Chief Scientist, 2007
The projected continuous increase in oil production seems
to have stalled in 2005
Pic: Oil Drum - Gail Tverberg
Graphic: ASPO Netherlands
Data: Oanda.com
The oil price has gone up (both in $ and euros) but the
dollar and the pound are collapsing against the euro
But - not to worry!
There’s lots of oil in the ground!
Graphic: IEA - Sir David King’s note to APPGOPO, 2007
Indeed the world seems to be ‘running into oil’…..
Graphic: Energy Bulletin - Gail Tverberg
But should we believe this?
‘The publishing of data is a political act’
Jean Laherrère
The Petroconsultants database was set up
by a company paid by oil companies to spy
on other oil companies
In 1956 M.King
Hubbert predicted
that US oil
production would
peak around
1965-1970
It did … at the
end of 1970.
He went on to
predict that world
oil production
would peak
around 2000.
Pic: Energy Bulletin
The rate of oil production has been greater than
that of discovery since the mid-1980s
A gloomy (or realistic?) projection from ASPO-Ireland
Another gloomy projection from the Energy Watch Group
Peak Gas
Graphic: Open University
Graphic: Open University
A 2001 projection from Jean Laherrère
Peak Coal
Energy Watch Group 2007
The bright
nuclear future….
King Hubbert
was initially a
great nuclear
fan...
Or not….
Energy Watch Group 2006
Peak Oil/Gas/Coal and Climate Change
Kharecha & Hansen, 2007
James Hansen’s
recent projections of
‘Business as Usual’
global CO2 emissions
Kharecha & Hansen, 2007
If we have a coal phase-out by
2050 then CO2 levels might be
kept below 450 ppm.
Kharecha & Hansen, 2007
James
Hansen’s
alternative
BAU with lower
oil, gas and
particularly
coal reserves.
This might stay
under 450 ppm
if the ‘peakists’
are right.
Kharecha & Hansen, 2007
Kharecha & Hansen, 2007
Energy Return on Investment (EROI)
Charles Hall - Oil Drum
So which do you want to worry
about most and in what order?
• Climate Change?
• Peak Oil?
• Peak Gas?
• Peak Coal?
• Peak Uranium?
• Peak Investment Capital?
For more news on this ongoing saga see:
The Oil Drum - http://www.theoildrum.com
The Energy Bulletin - http://www.energybulletin.net
ASPO Ireland - www.aspo-ireland.org
For more on Sustainable Energy see the
OU T206 Sustainable Energy Course website:
http://www.open.ac.uk/T206