Transcript Four Issues that Really Matter

The Four Environmental Issues that
Really Matter:
And How they will Change Everything
Gord Miller
Environmental Commissioner of Ontario
There Four Issues that Matter
Climate Change
 Peak Energy
 Biodiversity Loss
 Water Shortages


They are the four “pressures” on public
decision making that will shape events
in the coming decades
The Four pressures …
interrelated … share common cause
 represent different foci within society
and are represented by different groups
 all occurring concurrently but with …

– different levels of public awareness
– varying geographic impact
Climate Change
It’s not about believing
 It’s already happening
 It’s accelerating at a frightening pace
 It may not have touched you yet (but it

doesn’t have a gentle hand)
Climate Change

So what does that mean to Ontario in the
next two decades?
– more extreme precipitation events –
flooding, culvert washouts, CSOs
– more extreme weather – power outages, etc.
– less assimilative capacity at low flow
– more frost cycles disrupting roads
– more pest problems - range extensions
Peak Energy
Peak Oil
 Peak Electricity

Peak Oil
It’s not about believing
 It’s already happening
 It may not have touched you yet

Concept of Peak Oil
Oil Production
Hubbert Peak
Time
2002
1996
1990
1984
1978
1972
1966
1960
1954
1948
1942
1936
1930
1924
1918
1912
1906
1900
X 1000 Barrels per Day
US Oil Production
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Concept of Peak Oil
‘Stable’
Prices
Lots of Oil
Time
Concept of Peak Oil
Huge Price
Increases
Still Lots of Oil
Time
Peak Oil

So what does that mean to Ontario in the
next two decades?
– much more expensive fuel (possible
shortages)
– more expensive food
– less wealth generally – constraints on taxes
– increased pressure on public transit
– distance dominates … again … suburban
trend reverses
Peak Electricity
not a shortage issue per say but still a
big problem
 2009 the average market price was …

– $0.033 /kWh

2009 the peak market price was …
– $1.89 /kWh

there will be upward pressure on peak
load prices
Peak Electricity
long term increase in base prices
despite interval metering
 much stronger thrust on reduction of
energy use and energy efficiency
 development of a conserver society

Biodiversity Loss
It’s not about believing
 It’s already happening
 It’s accelerating at a frightening pace
 It may not have touched you yet

Biodiversity Loss

So what does that mean to Ontario in the
next two decades?
– loss of street and park trees
– reports of extinctions and extirpations
– great disruptions in forests and aquatic
ecosystems
– much greater public sensitivity to wildlife
and natural area issues
Biodiversity Loss

The example of the mountain pine beetle
Water Shortages
It’s not about believing
 It’s already happening
 It may not have touched you yet

Water Shortages

So what does that mean to Ontario in the
next two decades?
– threatened municipal supplies / constraints
on growth
– demand for grey water re-use, rain water
capture technology
– controversy and conflict over long distance
pipelines
– continued threats re Great Lakes takings
In Summary …

the coming changes caused by the four
pressures will cause a restructuring of
our entire economy
In Summary …
the coming changes caused by the four
pressures will cause a restructuring of
our entire economy
 If our society is to adapt to the changes
as best we can … we must prepare our
society for the challenges they will face

Thank You For Your Attention
The ultimate test of a moral society is the
kind of world that it leaves to its children.
Dietrich Bonhoeffer, theologian (1906-1945)