Transcript HIA conference 2009

Mitigation in an energy
constrained world
- a workshop
Martin Birley
BirleyHIA
www.BirleyHIA.co.uk
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Content
Climate change
Peak oil
Implications for HIA
– Attitude
– Practice
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Workshop
Quotations from climate
experts
It’s now
It’s us
It’s worse
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Annual effect of climate change now
300,000 dead
325 million seriously affected
500 million at extreme risk
4 billion people vulnerable
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Global Humanitarian Forum (2009)
www.ghfgeneva.org
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Climate change
Science
Politics
Unacceptable
risk
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<350ppm
>450ppm
Arctic sea ice
Positive
feedback
Energy scarcity
“The world’s energy system is at a crossroads.
Current global trends in energy supply and
consumption are patently unsustainable.”
International Energy Agency –
World Energy Outlook, Nov 2008
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Energy scarcity - Peak oil
-10,000 years
+10,000 years
200 years
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Global oil discovery peak: 1965
Source: Colin Campbell, ASPO
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Positive feedback
Peak
Oil
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Climate
change
Source: David Murphy – The Oil Drum. http://tinyurl.com/l5gpcb
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Energy intensity
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Energy gap UK
0%
100%
-10%
90%
-20%
80%
-30%
Gap
Emissions,
Availability
-40%
60%
-50%
50%
-60%
40%
-70%
30%
Renewables
-80%
-90%
20%
10%
-100%
0
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Policy/project
lifetime
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70%
40
60
Years
80
0%
100
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Health impacts of CC and Peak Oil
Amplify existing
health risks and
inequalities
Increased inequality
Reduced life expectancy
Failure of medical services
War
Starvation
Economic collapse
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HIA implications
Oil addiction
Carbon reduction
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Oil addiction
Knowledge
Attitudes and beliefs
Practice
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Attitudes and beliefs
Emotions
Inaction
Denial
Fear
Despair
Magical Rescue
Hope
Transition
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Health co-benefits of change
Housing planned
around public
transport, cycling,
local shops and homeworking
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• Reduce premature death from
air pollution
• Improved physical, social and
mental health and well-being
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Mitigation examples
Fossil-fuel based
Non fossil-fuel based
Diesel powered water
management
Wind powered water
management
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Workshop questions
What are the probable emotional responses to
the science?
What attitudes and beliefs follow from the
emotional responses?
How will such attitudes and beliefs influence the
practice of HIA?
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You may like to consider
Assumptions made in HIAs about trends in the
availability of energy, climate change or
emissions
Analysis of health outcomes under different
climate or energy regimes
Recommendations for mitigation and
enhancement of health impacts when constrained
by energy/climate issues
Other approaches to carrying out the HIA itself
that take account of cumulative effects/climate
change/energy scarcity
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END
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