Transcript Transition Network - Soil Association Conference

Peak oil, climate change and
transition – PLACE
PLACE: nn-Mmm-08
Ben Brangwyn
Co-founder, Transition Network
Agenda
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Peak Oil and its effects
Climate Change
Responses at different levels
– global, national, local, personal
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PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”
What is a transition town
Examples and achievements so far
Q&A discussion
Peak Oil – fields, regions, world
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we’ll never “run out” of oil
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we’re running out of
cheap, plentiful oil
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oil underpins
– industrial development
– agriculture
– economics
– population
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about ½ way through it…
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it’s going to decline
Peak Oil – discovery
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before you extract it, you have to find it
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US discovery peaked in 1930s
– production peaked in 1971
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UK discovery peaked in 1975
– production peaked in 1999
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world discovery peaked in 1960s
– production will peak in 20??
Peak Oil – official numbers
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EIA - Energy Information Administration
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IEA - International Energy Agency
Peak Oil vs Peak Exports
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Oil producers getting richer
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Developing their own economies
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Middle East growth: 5-6% pa
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Russia growth: 7% pa
Increasing their domestic
consumption of oil
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fuelled by subsidised prices
Less available for countries
they export to. Like us …
Peak Oil – what’s it like?
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terminal decline
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demand destruction
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examples:
– 1990s: North Korea
– 1990s: Cuba
– 2000: UK fuel crisis
– Now: Poor countries
Peak Oil – happening now
(if you’re poor)
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Asia
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Africa
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Americas
– Nepal
– Uganda
– Argentina
– Pakistan
– Zimbabwe
– Nicaragua
– Bangladesh
– Ghana
– Chile
– Sri Lanka
– Nigeria
– Costa Rica
– Philippines
– Senegal
– Dominican Republic
– China
– Kenya
– India
– Gambia
– Iraq
– Vietnam
– Philippines
– Iran
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Middle East
Peak Oil – happening now
(if you’re in Argentina)
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Argentina:
– worst energy shortage in nearly 20 years
– collapse of both the power grid and the fuel supply
system
– electricity supplies have been severely curtailed,
plunging entire districts into darkness and causing the
layoff of industrial workers
– shortages of compressed natural gas, which powers
many Argentine cars and 90% of the capital's taxis,
are common
– can no longer meet peak electricity demand.
Climate Change – the end of
the debate
The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:
 Warming
of the climate
system is unequivocal
 Most of the observed
increase in globally
averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th
century is very likely
(confidence level >90%)
due to the observed
increase in human
greenhouse gas
concentrations
Upsala Glacier, Argentina
Fossil Fuels, Carbon and
Economic Growth
Peak Oil & Climate Change
PEAK OIL
(a la Hirsch et al.)
 coal to liquids
 gas to liquids
 relaxed drilling
regulations
 massively scaled
biofuels
 tar sands and nonconventional oils
 resource
nationalism and
stockpiling
PLANNED
RELOCALISATION
 local resilience
 carbon reduction
 consume closer to home
 produce closer to home
 play closer to home
 decentralised energy
infrastructure
 the Great Reskilling
 localised food
 energy descent plans
 local medicinal capacity
 local currencies
CLIMATE CHANGE
(a la Stern et al.)
 climate engineering
 carbon capture and
storage
 tree-based carbon
offsets
 international
emissions trading
 climate adaptation
 improved
transportation
logistics
 nuclear power
What can be done?
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Global
– Oil Depletion Protocol
– Contraction and Convergence
– Kyoto
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National
– TEQs (energy rationing)
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Community
– Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural
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Personal
– “The work that reconnects”
– lessons from addiction counselling
– getting Gaia’ed
Can we respond?
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Going up the energy slope, we used
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ingenuity
creativity
adaptability
cooperation
Going back down…
– if we’re early enough
– if we’re cooperative
– the future could be a
whole lot better…
What’s stopping us? (1)
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Myths of today
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Things are getting better
We must keep shopping
Technology will solve all our problems
There is no alternative
You can’t stop progress
Living standards are rising
New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner
Humans are selfish and greedy by nature
The market will solve it
We’re all doomed…
What’s stopping us? (2)
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Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment)
Short term vs long term thinking
– rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian
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Belief in authority figures
– electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose
– obedient children survive
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Sunk cost, or investment in the present
– “it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job
depends on him not believing it”
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Optimism
– an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling
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Left brain, right brain
Where are we going?
Techno-Fantasy
Peak
Energy?
Green-Tech
Stability
• Energy & Resource Use
• Population
• Pollution
Earth
Post
Mad Max
Collapse
Pre-industrial
culture
Historical Time
Agriculture
10.000yrs BP
Industrial
Revolution
stewardship
Future Time
Baby
Boom
Great Grand
Children
Who’s doing creative,
orderly energy descent?
Official Transition Initiatives
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Totnes
Penwith (Cornwall)
Kinsale
Ivybridge
Falmouth
Moretonhampstead
Lewes
Stroud
Ashburton
Ottery St Mary
Bristol
Brixton
Forest Row
Mayfield
Glastonbury
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Forest of Dean
Lostwithiel
Nottingham
Wrington
Brighton&Hove
Portobello (Edinburgh)
Market Harborough
Sunshine Coast, Oz
West Kirby
Llandeilo
Bro Ddyfi
Whitstable
Marsden&Slaithwaite
Frome
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400+ “mullers”
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UK
Ireland
USA
Spain
Italy
New Zealand
Australia
France
Israel
Canada
Mexico
Norway
South Africa
Sweden
Uruguay
Argentina…
How are they organising?
Transition Model
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Understanding:
PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”
 Adaptability, creative
 NOW
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7 Buts
 12 Steps
 Transition Network
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Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1)
1) we don’t have funding
2) “they” won’t let us
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no enemies… apparently
3) turf wars with other
green groups
Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2)
4) no one cares about the environment
5) it’s too late anyway
6) I don’t have the right qualifications
7) I don’t have the energy to be doing
that
Transition Model - Step 1
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Set Up a Steering Group
and Design Its Demise from
the Outset
– atrophy
– personal agendas
– humility
– stages 2-5
– reforms from subgroups
Transition Model - Step 2
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Awareness raising
– allies and networks
– prepare community
– movies
– talks
– events
Transition Model - Step 3
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Lay the foundations
– other groups
– existing projects
– official bodies
– businesses
– collaboration
Transition Model - Step 4
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Organise a Great Unleashing
– coming of age
– powerful, passionate,
informative, inspirational
– timing
– content
– making connections
Transition Model - Step 5
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Form “working groups”
– starting new groups
– bringing in existing groups
– guidelines
– training
– working groups and the
steering group
Transition Model - Step 6
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Use “Open Space”
– shouldn’t work!
– requirements
– preparations
– World Café
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Harrison Owen - Open Space
Technology: A User’s Guide
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Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ The Change Handbook: Group
Methods for Shaping the Future
Transition Model - Step 7
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Develop visible practical
manifestations of your project
– not a talking shop
– chose carefully
– lure in fence-sitters
– team building potential
– getting dirt under your
fingernails
Transition Model - Step 8
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Facilitate the Great Reskilling
– Grandma, what was it like when you
were a kid?
– repairing, cooking, fixing bikes,
natural building, loft insulation,
dyeing, herbal walks, gardening,
basic home energy efficiency,
making sour doughs, practical food
growing (the list is endless…)
– eg WWOOFing
Transition Model - Step 9
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Build bridges to Local
Government
– becomes crucial
– don’t wait too long…
– open door
– Community Development
Plan
– elections…!
Transition Model - Step 10
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Honour the Elders
– elders as a community
resource
– 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil
scarcity to abundance
– oral history
– community infrastructure
– not about going backwards
Transition Model - Step 11
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Let it go where it wants to
go…
– focus on the questions
– unleash the community
– any sense of control is
illusory
Transition Model - Step 12
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Produce and start to implement
the Energy Descent Action Plan
– assess current situation
– create 15-20 year vision for all
key areas
– integrate with community plan if
possible
– identify steps needed to get there
– start the work
What have they achieved
so far…? (1)
Totnes
8 films, 11 talks, 7 events
 10-week “skilling up for powerdown”
course
 seed sharing days
 oil vulnerability auditing
 Estates in Transition
 local food directory
 local currency (phase 2)
 oral history archives
 nut tree capital of Britain
 transition stories
 lobbying (food and sustainable building
regs)
 community plan engagement
 Totnes Renewable Energy Company
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Lewes
school workshops
 grow your own food courses
 rug making course
 mending course
 Lewes non-plastic bag
 library books on sustainability
 many events, talks and films
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Penwith
many films and talks
 food and farming day with Soil
Association
 reskilling – composting toilets
and reedbeds
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What have they achieved
so far…? (2)
Brixton
green mapping / urban agriculture project
 permaculture design course
 films and talks
 presenting to school boards on peak oil
and climate change
 urban food growers network day
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Bristol
many films, talks and events
 transition training 2-day course
 city orchard (central buying of trees for
productive planting by individual
homeowners
 guerilla gardening
 photo exhibition and competition of “living
more, using less”
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Stroud
CSA, local food festival
 tool share
 textile courses, visits to
hemp manufacturers, fashion
show
 planning Stroud Hemporium
 Heinberg meeting with
council
 Transition “think tank” with
local council
 many events and talks
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Transition Training
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Totnes: 18 to 19-Oct-07
– 17 people (Birmingham, Lostwithiel, Exeter)
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Bristol: 20-Nov-07
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London: Dec-07
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Scotland?
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Wales?
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North…
Our choice…
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We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future
whether we want to or not. Far better to ride
that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.
Transition Initiatives
Thank you
Ben Brangwyn