Transcript High Wycombe - Post

High
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Adapted from the work and
presentations of Rob Hopkins
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Agenda
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The Oil Gap
Oil Security
Peak Oil & Climate Change
Ready to Change?
Transition Initiatives
Examples
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The Oil Gap
The Second Half of the Age of Oil
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The Petroleum Blip
4km
Fact
• If the Global Economy grows at 3% pa between
now and 2040 we will consume resources
equivalent to ALL those we consumed since
humans first stood on two legs.
• Total Oil Reserves were roughly 2 trillion barrels
• We burnt the first 1 trillion in 125 years
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• The rest will be burnt in 30 years
• In 2025 the demand for Oil will be 60% higher
than today…… yet production will have fallen to
1985 levels
• The OPEC Embargo in the 1970’s only restricted
supply by 5% yet prices quadrupled overnight
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We’ve Been Here Before
Discovery peaked 40 years ago
60
60
Past
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Production
Gb
40
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Future
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30
30
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Past discovery
by ExxonMobil Past after
10
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
Exxon-Mobil
3yr moving
average
2010
2030
10
0
2050
One Barrel of Oil is discovered for every four we consume
Crying Wolf
• Peak Oil prediction has become subject to a
myth of innaccuracy
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• Of EIGHT reputable predictions for Peak Oil in
the 1970’s (including ESSO, UK Dept of
Energy, Shell & BP) the range of dates given
were 1995 to 2000
• Despite some outlandish claims for Oil
Exhaustion by the year 2000 these did not
come from Oil Geologists
• These were based upon known reserves and
consumption rates
• The method of calculating Peak has been
known about for a century whilst the figure
for total eventual Oil Endowment has not
changed for 40 years
Events Today
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May 22nd – IEA (International
Energy Agency) issues downard
revision of the Oil Industry’s ability
to keep pace with demand
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Predicted capacity was 116 million
barrels per day by 2030 but now
they admit it won’t make 100
million barrels per day
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Experts predict $200/barrel soon
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In July a fuel theft in Ireland lead
to the death of one woman
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Gas Watchdog predicts 70%
increase in Gas Bills for the UK
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US Energy Secretary admits
“demand has outstripped supply”
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What we are told now
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“One thing is clear: the age of easy oil is over” David J
O’Reilly, CEO, Chevron
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“The world should forget about cheap oil” Venezualan
President Chavez
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“The time has come to prepare for the ‘post-oil’ era, we must all
incorporate this change in our behaviour and reduce
consumption” French Prime Minister de Villepin (July 2005)
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“As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility
will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the
economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented.” US
Dept of Energy funded report (2005)
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“I expect to see a peak sometime before 2015… and decline
rates at 4 to 8% per year.” Jeremy Gilbert, former BP Chief
Peroleum Engineer (May 2007)
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“We are addicted to Oil.” George W Bush Jnr
What Peak Looks Like
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Production, Gboe/a
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Non-con Gas
40
30
Gas
NGLs
Polar Oil
Deep Water
Heavy
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Regular
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0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil
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Oil Security
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The UK: The Widening Gap
Source: DTI
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Gas? UK Annual Forecast &
Import Requirement
Source – National Grid
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Oil and War
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World War II
1970’s – ‘securing World Oil supplies’
Iran 1953 to 1979 – ‘blowback’
Kuwait 1991
Afghanistan 2001
Iraq 2003 – today
9/11 and 7/7
High Wycombe – if you go down to
the woods today…
• There is no war on terror?
• Opportunity cost – money better
spent
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The Growth in Biofuels
Oil, Money and Poverty
• Negative correlation between
wealth & oil exports
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• Higher poverty, malnutrition,
illiteracy, corruption,
authoritarianism, civil war & debt
• Strange choices:
• Wind versus coal
• Wind versus peat
• Where is the wisdom?
Human Rights & Habitat
• Nigeria
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• Shell versus the Ogoni
• Ecuador
• Big Oil versus the Yasuni
• Leaving the Oil in the
ground?
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Peak Oil & Climate Change
Agriculture
• Extreme weather
• crop damage & lower yields
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• All pesticides, herbicides, fungicides and
fertilisers are made from petrochemicals
• The non-organic industry is dependent
upon them
• Peak Oil will cause the price of these
petrochemicals to rise and restrict their
supply
• Yields will drop
• Food prices are going to rise
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Energy
• Turning on the Air
Conditioning is not an option
• Turning up the Heat is not an
option
• Substituting Coal generates
more CO2
• Carbon is going to be taxed at
source and/or at point of use
• Governments will attempt to
restrict Carbon Fuel usage in
order to meet international
obligations
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Clean Tech
Clash of the Titans
• Peak Oil can make adapting to Climate Change
more difficult
• & vice versa
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• BOTH impact our Food Chain
• Some solutions to Peak Oil will make Climate
Change worse
• & vice versa
• The solution to Peak Oil is to use less Fossil Fuels
• The solution to Climate Change is to use less Fossil
Fuels
• Hmmmm…………… now there’s a thought!
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Ready to Change?
I’ll Change but… you first
• Governments assume that, if they just give the
right information to people, they will act
appropriately – however the public believe that
the Government should initiate change – level
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the playing field
• Consumers are “locked in” to unsustainable
consumption by institutional factors beyond their
control – therefore the Institution must change
I’ll Change but… its inconvenient
• The public favour ‘sustainable modes of consumption’
but are only motivated if they personaly benefit
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• People are put off by the idea of sacrifice, disruption to
daily routine or any inconvenience
• Change is a social process offering
social substitutes to ‘normal’ product &
behaviour
• Consumer goods are key to aspects of
identity, social cohesions and cultural
meaning
• Reinforcing, connected, change in
technology, institutions, behaviour,
culture, ecology & belief systems take
25 years – but can be accelerated by a
sudden, unexpected, one-off event
Readiness for Change
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Do not assume that everyone is ready
for change
People are a different stages
1. Some know nothing and have no intention of
learning more
2. Some are aware and contemplating change
3. Some are changing and are preparing
4. Some people are changing
5. Some people have changed and maintaining
their changes
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Where are you?
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Transition Initiatives
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More & more…. & more!
…and? Us?..
Organise
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• Form a committee
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Raise Awareness
Lay Foundations
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• Collaborate
where possible
• Co-operation, not
competition
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Official ‘Unleashing’
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this
evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Form Working Groups
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Up and Running
Arts / Food / Energy /
Economics / Liaison with Local
Government / Heart and Soul
– the psychology of change /
Medicine and Health /
Housing / Education /
Transport
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Workshopping in “Open Space”
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Develop Visible Manifestations of
the Project
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January
2007.
Facilitate the Great Reskilling
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Skilling Up for
Powerdown.
Peak Oil / Climate Change,
Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy,
Building and Housing, Woodlands,
Water, Waste, Economics, The
Psychology of Change, Energy Descent
Planning…
Build a Bridge to Local
Government
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World Cafe on Peak Oil and
Climate Change with Local
Councillors
Endorsed by Totnes Town
Council
Contributions to Local
Development Framework.
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Learn from the Elders
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Let It Go Where It Wants to Go
• Solar Water Heater Challenge.
• The Totnes Renewable Energy
Society (TRESOC)
• Lending Library
• NISP workshops
• TTT International Youth
Music Festival
• Garden Swap
Create an Energy Descent
Action Plan
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• Start with a vision and then
backcast
• Incorporate Transition Tales
• Base it on current planning
documents.
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Examples
Working with Business
Oil Vulnerability Analysis
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Totnes first town in the UK to
train OVA team and conduct
pilot analyses.
Working with Liverpool
University Oil Depletion
Impact Group.
Two pilot studies reported
back September 2007, more
to follow.
Endorsed by Totnes
Chamber of Commerce
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Working with Local
Landowners
Estates in Transition conference.
June 11th 2007.
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The Totnes Local Food Directory
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The Totnes Pound
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Transition Tales
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Using ‘YouTube’ to Communicate
Transition Town ideas
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Great Reskilling courses
Wild Foods,
natural building,
seed saving,
hand made
paints, stove
building, forest
gardening, food
growing, bread
making...
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What Next?
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