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Transition Initiatives
From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.
June 16th 2008. Rob Hopkins.
Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network
The Petroleum Interval
Peak Oil.
From Energy Watch Group (2007) Crude Oil: the supply outlook.
Oil Producers (98)
www.lastoilshock.com
Post Peak Oil Producers (64)
www.lastoilshock.com
Discovery peaked 40 years ago
60
60
Past
50
Future
Production
Gb
40
Past discovery
by ExxonMobil Past after
30
Exxon-Mobil
3yr moving
average
20
10
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
50
40
30
20
10
0
2050
Production peaks follow discovery.
(You have to find it before you can produce it).
50
Production, Gboe/a
Non-con Gas
40
30
Gas
NGLs
Polar Oil
Deep Water
Heavy
20
Regular
10
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil
2050
President Bush in Saudi
Terry Moran: "What can you say to the king here to get
those high oil prices down?"
George Bush Well, I will say to him that if it is possible,
your majesty, consider what high prices is doing to one of
your largest customers . . ."
Moran then asks whether Americans might expect a
tougher approach, one in which we essentially say,
"you owe us" for all we have done for you.
Bush: "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put
on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do
something they may not be able to do."
World Unconventional Production
1936 - 2006
Filling the Gap: the
Unconventional Oils.
New Brazilian ‘Superfield’
Will require;
 equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per
square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup
truck
 pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500
degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius)
 drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than
one mile thick and cost $50,000 each
`This is a very, very technically challenging
environment where no one's ever done this, these
discoveries are in very deep water, and once you
get to the seabed they are very deep under the
floor, with a layer of salt that is definitely a difficult
barrier’
The Growth in Biofuels
The UK: The Widening Gap
Source: DTI
Gas? UK Continental Shelf Annual
Forecast & Import Requirement
Source – National Grid
“The UK is a secondary
priority. Like it or
not, that is a fact”.
Thor Otto Lohne, executive vicepresident, Gassco.
...Climate Change; Far
Faster than Expected.
Spratt, D. (2007) The Big Melt: Lessons from the Arctic Summer of 2007.
Carbon Equity.
Energy Return on Energy
Invested (EROEI)
Carbon Emissions
4 Energy Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Technology & Markets
3
1
Slow
Depletion
Rapid
Depletion
and/or later
peaking
and/or early
peaking
4
2
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology,
Society & Government
4 Energy Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Technology & Markets
“Lean Economy” *
Rapid
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
aka “Powerdown”
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
Slow
Depletion
“Collapse”
“Burnout”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology,
Society & Government
and/or later
peaking
* per David Fleming
Peak Oil & Climate Change
PEAK OIL
(a la Hirsch et al.)
 coal to liquids
 gas to liquids
 relaxed drilling
regulations
 massively scaled
biofuels
 tar sands and nonconventional oils
 resource
nationalism and
stockpiling
PLANNED
RELOCALISATION
 local resilience
 carbon reduction
 consume closer to home
 produce closer to home
 play closer to home
 decentralised energy
infrastructure
 the Great Reskilling
 localised food
 energy descent plans
 local medicinal capacity
 local currencies
CLIMATE CHANGE
(a la Stern et al.)
 climate engineering
 carbon capture and
storage
 tree-based carbon
offsets
 international
emissions trading
 climate adaptation
 improved
transportation
logistics
 nuclear power
Principle #1. Resilience.
Totnes in the 1930’s…
© Totnes Image Bank
George Heath.
A Powerdown Pioneer.
© Totnes Image Bank
Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba
Downtown Havana
Relocalisation
“…localisation stands,
at best, at the limits
of practical possibility,
but it has the decisive
argument in its favour
that there will be no
alternative”
David Fleming
Principle #2. Visioning
#3.
#4.
#5.
#6.
Inclusion
Awareness Raising
Psychological Insights
Credible and Appropriate Solutions.
UK: Totnes , Penwith, Ivybridge, Falmouth , Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud , Bristol,
Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington
, Brighton & Hove , Portobello, Scotland , Market Harborough, West Kirby , Llandeilo ,
Bro Dyfi , Whitstable, Marsden/Slaithwaite , Frome,
Brampton, Isle of Wight ,
Dunbar, Scotland,
Ireland : Kinsale Australia: Sunshine Coast New Zealand : Waiheke Island, Orewa
The 12 Steps of Transition. Step 1:
Form a Steering Group and Design
Its Demise from the Outset.
Step Two:
Awareness Raising…
Step 3:
Lay the Foundations.
• Collaborate
where possible
• Co-operation,
not competition.
Working with Business
Oil Vulnerability Analysis.
Totnes first town in the UK to
train OVA team and conduct
pilot analyses.
Working with Liverpool
University Oil Depletion Impact
Group.
Two pilot studies reported back
September 2007, more to
follow.
Endorsed by Totnes Chamber
of Commerce
Working with Local Landowners.
Estates in Transition conference.
June 11th 2007.
Step 4.
The Official Unleashing
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this
evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Step 5:
Form Working Groups.
Up and Running
Arts / Food / Energy / Economics /
Liaison with Local Government /
Heart and Soul – the psychology
of change / Medicine and Health /
Housing / Education / Transport
Step 6:
Use Open Space Technology.
Step 7:
Develop Visible Manifestations of
the Project.
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.
The Totnes Local Food Directory.
The Totnes Pound
Transition Tales
Step 8:
Facilitate the Great Reskilling
Skilling Up for
Powerdown.
Peak Oil / Climate Change,
Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy,
Building and Housing, Woodlands,
Water, Waste, Economics, The
Psychology of Change, Energy Descent
Planning…
Using You Tube to Communicate
Transition Town ideas.
Great Reskilling courses.
Wild Foods,
natural
building, seed
saving, hand
made paints,
stove building,
forest
gardening, food
growing, bread
making...
Step 9:
Build a Bridge to Local Government
World Cafe on Peak Oil and
Climate Change with Local
Councillors
Endorsed by Totnes Town
Council
Contributions to Local
Development Framework.
Step 10:
Honour the Elders.
Step 11:
Let It Go Where It Wants to Go.






Solar Water Heater Challenge.
The Totnes Renewable Energy
Society (TRESOC)
Lending Library.
NISP workshops
TTT International Youth
Music Festival.
Garden Swap
Step 12:
Create an Energy Descent Action
Plan.
Start with a vision and then
backcast
Incorporate Transition
Tales
Base it on current planning
documents.
National Scale Hubs

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New Zealand
Ireland
Japan
Devolved Nations:
Transition Scotland Network
• To support, network, encourage,
support and train Transition initiatives
across Scotland
Regional Scale

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
South East Transition Initiatives
An evolution from Transition Town
Lewes and Forest Row
Will initially take over supporting,
inspiring and training
City Scale – Transition Bristol
• Awareness raising
• 600 trees in ‘Virtual Orchard’
• 12 Neighbourhood groups
Transition Islands

Isles of Scilly, Man and Wight
Transition Training
• Run across the UK
• Training the Trainer Training
• Transition Talk Training
We’ve Been Here Before
...What Happened Then?
www.transitionculture.org
www.transitiontowns.org/Totnes
.
Now Available!
“The Transition Handbook: from oil dependency to local
resilience” published by Green Books, 6th March 2008