Transcript transitionculture.org

Transition London
From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.
September 16th 2008. Rob Hopkins.
Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network
The Hirsch Report, 2005
“...the peaking of world oil production presents the US
and the world with an unprecedented risk
management problem. As peaking is approached,
liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase
dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the
economic, social and political costs will be
unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on
both the supply and demand sides, but to have
substantial impact, they must be initiated more
than a decade in advance of peaking” (emphasis
added)
(Hirsch 2005).
4 Energy Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Technology & Markets
3
1
Slow
Depletion
Rapid
Depletion
and/or later
peaking
and/or early
peaking
4
2
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology,
Society & Government
4 Energy Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Technology & Markets
“Lean Economy” *
Rapid
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
aka “Powerdown”
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
Slow
Depletion
“Collapse”
“Burnout”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology,
Society & Government
and/or later
peaking
* per David Fleming
Peak Oil & Climate Change
PEAK OIL
(a la Hirsch et al.)
 coal to liquids
 gas to liquids
 relaxed drilling
regulations
 massively scaled
biofuels
 tar sands and nonconventional oils
 resource
nationalism and
stockpiling
PLANNED
RELOCALISATION
 local resilience
 carbon reduction
 consume closer to home
 produce closer to home
 play closer to home
 decentralised energy
infrastructure
 the Great Reskilling
 localised food
 energy descent plans
 local medicinal capacity
 local currencies
CLIMATE CHANGE
(a la Stern et al.)
 climate engineering
 carbon capture and
storage
 tree-based carbon
offsets
 international
emissions trading
 climate adaptation
 improved
transportation
logistics
 nuclear power
1. Positive Visioning
“It will be a huge wrench
to leave all this behind,
but I have always
wanted to live in the
country. Our new
house will be an ecohome. We are going
from one extreme to
another”.
Anna Ryder Richardson
Hello! magazine 1st January 2008
2. Help People Access Good
Information and Trust Them to
Make Good Decisions
3. Inclusion and Openness
Working with Business
Oil Vulnerability Analysis.
Totnes first town in the UK to
train OVA team and conduct
pilot analyses.
Working with Liverpool
University Oil Depletion Impact
Group.
Two pilot studies reported back
September 2007, more to
follow.
Endorsed by Totnes Chamber
of Commerce
Working with Local Landowners.
Estates in Transition conference.
June 11th 2007.
4. Enabling Sharing and
Networking
5. Building Resilience.
© Totnes Image Bank
George Heath.
A Powerdown Pioneer.
© Totnes Image Bank
Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba
Downtown Havana
“…localisation stands,
at best, at the limits
of practical possibility,
but it has the decisive
argument in its favour
that there will be no
alternative”
David Fleming
6. Inner and Outer Transition
Up and Running
Arts / Food / Energy / Economics /
Liaison with Local Government /
Heart and Soul – the psychology
of change / Medicine and Health /
Housing / Education / Transport
7. Subsidiarity: decision making
at the appropriate level
The Purpose of Transition....
“To support community-led responses to peak oil and
climate change, building resilience and happiness”.
Totnes, Penwith, Kinsale, Ireland, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud, Ashburton, Ottery St. Mary,
Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton&Hove,
Portobello, Scotland, Market Harborough, Sunshine Coast, Australia, West Kirby, Llandeilo, Wales, Bro Ddyfi, Wales,
Whitstable, Marsden & Slaithwaite, Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight, Waiheke Island, New Zealand, Orewa, New Zealand,
Dunbar, Scotland, Rhayader, Wales, Seaton, Bath, Exeter, Isle of Man, Canterbury, Kapiti District, New Zealand, Carbon
Neutral Biggar, a Transition Town, Presteigne, Wolverton, Leicester, Holywood, Westcliff-on-Sea, Isles of Scilly, Liverpool
South, Norwich, Tring, Crediton, Boulder, CO, USA, North Howe, Lampeter, South Petherton, Armidale, NSW, Chichester,
bell, VIC, Bellingen, NSW, Berkhamsted, Forres, Sandpoint, ID, USA, Opotiki Coast, New Zealand , Newcastle, NSW,
Chepstow, Coventry, Bungay, Nelson, Hervey Bay, QLD, Mersea Island, Maidenhead, Ladock & Grampound Road, Leek,
Horsham .... and Ambridge!
Some Things that Transition Initiatives Do....
Have Official Unleashings....
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this
evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Plant Nut Trees in Odd Places...
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.
Make Food Directories....
Print Their Own Money...
The Lewes Pound
The Brixton Brick?
Share Gardens....
Try to Do Something about Being
So Useless...
Skilling Up for
Powerdown.
Peak Oil / Climate Change,
Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy,
Building and Housing, Woodlands,
Water, Waste, Economics, The
Psychology of Change, Energy Descent
Planning…
Engage their local government
World Cafe on Peak Oil and
Climate Change with Local
Councillors
Endorsed by Totnes Town
Council
Contributions to Local
Development Framework.
Learn Their History...
Buy Solar Panels Together...
Totnes Solar
Thermal
Challenge
Set Up Energy Companies...
Become Developers....
Create Energy Descent Action
Plans...
Start with a vision and then
backcast
Incorporate Transition
Tales
Base it on current planning
documents.
...and in the City?

You aren’t
alone...
We’ve Been Here Before
...What Happened Then?
www.transitionculture.org
www.transitiontowns.org/Totnes
.
Now Available!
“The Transition Handbook: from oil dependency to local
resilience” published by Green Books