Transcript Swinburne University - Treviso 12th July 2006

Peak Oil
Values & Policy for 21C
Towards 2020
Climate Change Conference
Sunshine Coast, Queensland
8-9th June 2007
Ian T. Dunlop
Deputy Convenor
The Peak Oil Opportunity
• Peaking of Oil Supply
– oil is not running out
– but soon it will not be physically possible to expand oil supply to meet
increasing demand
• Climate Change and Peak Oil are inextricably linked
– and converging
• Solutions to Peak Oil must reinforce, and not conflict with,
solutions to Climate Change
• Convergence will profoundly alter our way of life, our
institutions & our prosperity
– for the better, as our current lifestyle is not sustainable
Global Drivers
•
Population Growth
•
Poverty & Inequality
•
Liberalisation
•
Globalisation
•
Technological Change
•
Sustainability
World Population
Population - billion
12
Where to ?
10
8
Today
6
4
2
0
-2 0 0 0
-1 0 0 0
BC
0
1000
Year
2000
3000
AD
Source: J.E.Cohen, Columbia University, New York, 2005
Poverty & Inequality
World Population
Enjoy 80% of World GDP
17%
15%
High Income
Developing
Developing: A$2-4 per day
26%
42%
World Population = 6.5 billion
Developing: less than A$2 per
day
Source: World Bank Global Database 2004
World Ecological Footprint
Source: Global Footprint Network
World Energy Consumption
12
10
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
billion toe
8
6
4
2
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
Energy & Prosperity
Energy Demand Growth
“Official Forecast” 1971 - 2030
Global Fossil Fuel Resources
World Oil Production
90
80
70
Asia Pacific
Africa
Middle East
Europe & Eurasia
S. & Cent. America
North America
million b/d
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
years
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
Peak Oil matters
Oil dominates its markets
•
•
•
•
•
•
80-95% of all transport is fuelled by oil products
50-75% of all oil is used for transportation
All petrochemicals are produced from oil
99% of all lubrication is done with oil products
95% of all goods in the shops get there using oil
99% of our food involves oil or gas for fertilisers,
agrochemicals, tilling, cultivation and transport
• Oil is the most important source of primary energy on the
planet accounting for 36.4% of all energy
Crude Oil Importers
Crude Oil Exporters
The Oil Triangle of the Middle East
Within the Oil Triangle
you can find roughly 60
percent of the
remaining oil reserves
in the world. The 2001
Cheney report, US
Energy Policy, says
that in year 2020 around
54 to 67 percent of the
world consumption of
oil needs to come from
the Oil Triangle.
Qatar
Typical Oil Province
Production Profile
The Growing Gap
Trends in Discoveries and Production
60
60
Past
Billions of Barrels
50
50
Future
Production
40
30
30
Past discovery
by ExxonMobil
20
“Growing
Gap”
10
0
1930
40
20
10
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
0
2050
Source: Exxon Mobil 2002 - updated
Oil Availability
The “Official Future” in 2005
Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price
Source: IEA (2005)
“Official Future” Today
“ The energy future which we are creating is
unsustainable. If we continue as before, the energy
supply to meet the needs of the world economy over
the next 25 years is too vulnerable to failure arising
from under-investment, environmental catastrophe
or sudden supply interruption”
Claude Mandil
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook 2006
Global Oil Depletion - ASPO
Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil
CRUDE OIL PRICES
1861-2005
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
The Economist’s View
“If the price of eggs is high enough, even the roosters will
start to lay”
Dr. Brian Fisher
Executive Director
ABARE
May 2006
Perhaps, but if economists were farmers, geologists or
petroleum engineers it would be a strange world !
Why are oil supplies peaking?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
We are not finding oil fast enough
It is getting harder
We are not developing fields fast enough
Too many fields are old and declining
We are short of people and equipment
Oilfield inflation is soaring
Our societies are totally oil dependent
Oil supply will peak soon.
Deepwater Oil - Getting Harder
Source: BP
Deep Water Oil vs
Mt. Everest
8,848 metre
Sea Level
2,100 metre to
seabed
8,588 metre to oil
reservoir
New US Gulf of Mexico oilfield
Jack 2
What will the Peak look like ?
• It could be sharp and nasty
–
–
–
–
geopolitical supply disruption / constraint
major oilfield depletion acceleration
producing countries consume more oil internally
climate change impact - Hurricane Katrina
• It could be an “undulating plateau”
– demand destruction
• developing world cannot afford high prices
• climate change emissions constraints
– extra supply accelerates
• to balance depletion
• We will probably only see it in the rear-vision mirror
– we may already be there
Solutions -- but hurry
•
•
•
•
•
•
Efficiency in use
Demand management
Biofuels
Heavy oils and tarsands
Clean coal to create syngas
Gas to liquids
The solutions must not worsen climate change
Gbbls/year
50
Efficiency
Demand
Growth
Global Oil Solutions
Filling the gap
40
30
Transport
mode shifts
Pricing / taxes
City design/lifestyle
Other petroleum fuels
gas, tar-sands
Past Production of Oil
Other fuels
20
Forecast
Production
10
0
1930
Deprivation, war
2005
1950
1970
1990
2010
•
2030
2050
no single “Magic Bullet” solution, but lots of “Magic Buckshot” !
• probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil
•
urgent preparation and adjustment are vital
Australian Crude Oil & Condensate
Supply & Demand
Source: APPEA
Australia uses
45,000 megalitres of
oil each year
= a 360m cube
Sydney Harbour Bridge
is 134 m high
80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport
If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop was all converted to ethanol:
= 9% of Australian oil usage
Oil Consumption
Comparison
Million barrels/ day 2005
BP Statistical Review, 2006
Australia uses
0.9
China
7.0
US
20.6
World
82.5
US = 1 cubic km oil / year
Australia
l
China
1 km
United States
l
Oil Consumption bbl/day
(blue = net
imports,
red = production)
Total
Oil Consumption
Production
M bbl/day
Net imports
20,000,000
20
China
EU 15 +
Norway
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
Australia
12,000,000
10,000,000
10
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
l
1 km
l
United States
2,000,000
0
0
Australia
Aust
EU-15
USA
C hina
Japan
Eu-15+ USA China Japan
Registeredvehicles
Vehicles per
1000
Registered
/1000
people
Oil consumption bbl/day/1000 people
70
900
60
800
700
50
600
40
500
30
400
300
20
200
10
100
0
Aust
0
Eu-15
USA China Japan
Australia
Aust
EU-15
USA
China
Japan
Eu-15 USA China Japan
Who Gets The Available Oil ?
• Market forces
– the wealthy win
• The “Washington Consensus”
– send in the marines !
• A global “Oil Depletion Protocol”
– sharing equitably
– an oil equivalent of the Kyoto Protocol
Oil Depletion Protocol
•
A Developed World View:
– Every nation would reduce their oil consumption annually by at least the global
depletion rate
– No country would produce oil at above its present depletion rate
– No country would import oil at above the global depletion
•
A Developing World View
– Equal per capita oil allocation globally, by a date to be agreed
•
National oil descent budget managed by a Tradeable Energy Quota system
– with personal per capita oil allocation
•
Climate change and peak oil TEQ systems work in parallel
Sources: Dr. Colin Campbell, ASPO Australia
Community Awareness &
Commitment
• Transition to a low-carbon economy will fundamentally alter lifestyle of
entire community
• Peak Oil is barely on our radar
– but it may be the issue which has a greater impact than climate change
in the short-term
• Be aware and prepare!
• Requires principled, long term leadership
• Community involvement and pressure are essential drivers
• A unique opportunity to set humanity on a new course built on sustainable
principles
Technology alone is not enough.
Values must change
Technology
Existing
Insufficient:
New
New
The Goal:
Sustainable use of
Sustainable use of
existing technology new technology
Values
Existing
Unacceptable:
The danger:
Unsustainable use
of existing
technology
Unsustainable use
of new, more
powerful
technology
Source: Hardin Tibbs
21st Century Value Shift
Population
Values in 20th C
•Quantity
•Economy
•Growth
•Consumption
•Materialism
•Competition
•Selfism
•Nationalism
•Short-term
•Chains
Values in 21st C
•Quality
•Environment
•Sustainability
•De-materialisation
•Self-restraint
•Cooperation
•Mutualism
•Globalism
•Long-term
•Loops
Time
[email protected]
Adaptive Change
“It is not the strongest of the species that survive,
nor the most intelligent, rather it is those most
responsive to change”
Charles Darwin
“Don’t blow it - good planets are hard to find!”
Time
Thank you
www.aspo-australia.org.au
[email protected]
Background Slides
How old are the fields?
• Of the 18 largest fields, 12 are in decline, 5 have some
potential and 1 is undeveloped
• The 120 largest fields give 50% of total
• 70% of production from fields 30+ years old
• Few large recent discoveries
• We’re dependent on the oil equivalent of ‘Old men and young
boys’
Sustainability
“ Meeting the needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs”
Gro Harlem Brundtland, “Our Common Future”,1987
“In a sustainable society, the rates of:
• use of renewable resources do not exceed their rates of
regeneration
• use of nonrenewable resources do not exceed the rate at which
sustainable renewable substitutes are developed
• pollution emissions do not exceed the assimilative capacity of the
environment”
Herman Daly
Tradeable Energy Quotas
An electronic system for rationing
carbon-rated energy…
for all energy users…
at national level.
Also can be used to maintain a fair
distribution of a scarce commodity
such as oil or water