Transcript Skills and Technology 2010 A Global Overview

Skills and Technology 2010
A Global Overview
by Professor Ron Johnston
EE-OZ Annual Conference 2005
‘Skills and Technology 2010’
8 November 2005
Brisbane
What of 2010?
“Most things change slowly, some
things change rapidly; the only
problem is we don’t know which
is which”
(Bill Gates)
But in 2010
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World population will have grown by ⅓ billion
China’s economy will rival that of the US
The sea level will rise by 2 inches
Energy consumption in Australia will have risen
by 10-15%
Voice-based computers will be widespread,
probably in your mobile phone
Computing systems will actively learn
Stem-cell based treatment and repair will be
available
Terrorism will still be with us
One Certainty
“the long-term trend towards a
knowledge-based economy
continues, driven by the growing
globalisation of knowledge”
(OECD STI Scoreboard 2005)
Some Evidence
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Investment in knowledge (R&D, education and
software) is 9% of GDP in OECD countries,
compared with 7% for machinery and
equipment
Professional and technical workers are over 35%
of employment in Australia
The number of patents doubled in the past
decade, to 450,000 pa
The ICT sector is 10% of business value added
China is the ⅓ largest R&D performer
Growth in Investment in Knowledge Generation
OECD – growing at 5% per year
 New Asian Players
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 China
25% of US
 Korea 8% of US
 Taiwan 3% of US
Sum of scientific knowledge doubled in past
8 years!
 ‘Talent Wars’
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In a knowledge economy the
production, distribution and use of
knowledge is the main driver of
growth, wealth creation and
employment across all industries.
 Because
knowledge does not
wear out it is a source of supervalue and super-productivity.
 Knowledge
alone can add value
to an otherwise closed, zerosum system.
Changing
Knowledge Work
“There is a shift from applying
knowledge in a relatively stable
environment to using and creating
knowledge to comprehend and
transform a rapidly changing
environment”
Knowledge
work is...
•Complex
•Uncertain
•Ambiguous
•Unstructured
•Difficult to
observe and
measure
•High risk
Which requires And organisations
individuals
that...
with...
-High pattern
recognition
skills
-flexibility and
tolerance for
ambiguity
•Teams
-skilled at
collective
“sense making”
-develop
knowledge worker
novices into experts
-rapidly build
effective virtual
teams
-build a culture of
improvisation
-balance creativity
with risk
management
The Challenge of Skill Formation
“Australia’s productivity gains over the past
two decades are well known. Less well
recognised till now is the price that we
have paid as a result of reduced funding
of skills formation…the next wave of
productivity gains will need to be founded
on a new skills formation strategy
(Bridging the Skills Divide, Senate Inquiry, 2003)
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Some Major
Uncertaintie
s
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The China Phenomenon
• Current GDP US$7.3 tn, cf USA 11.8,
EU 11.7
• Slowing growth rate! – from 9.5%
1978-2004 to 8% 2006-10 to 7.2%
2011-20
• Just 5.7% growth rate doubles the
economy in 10 years
• Current account surplus US$100 bn
• Trade surplus US$50bn
• 40 GW energy capacity being built
each year = Australia’s total energy
capacity
New DecisionMaking/Management Tools
• smart search engines
• driven by voice recognition
• micro-display
• specialised DNA computing
• intelligent agents
• automated intelligence
• knowledge management
Global Warming &
Environmental Sustainability
Beware the
Sixth Extinction!