Transcript Productivity developments – the International Picture

Productivity Perspectives 2007
Canberra, 17 December 2007
Productivity developments –
the International Picture
Paul Schreyer, OECD
Outline
• A look at labour productivity…
• …and MFP
• Is there a common productivity story to
OECD countries?
• Ongoing work and productivity-related
projects at the OECD
But with significant variations:
US: acceleration in early millenium
Japan, UK: steady on average
Germany slows down but picks up around 2005
OECD
total:slowing
in 2000-06 over 1995-00
%
Not
much
action
in
France
7
2000-2006 further
1995-2000
Italy and Spain decelerate
6
Acceleration in some new EU member countries
Labour productivity
5
4
3
2
1
0
LP growth in the first half of the
millenium
• Productivity growth led by new entrants to
European Union (Slovak Republic, Poland,
Czech Republic, Hungary), but from low
levels
• And the usual suspects for sustained LP
growth in Europe: Sweden, Finland,
Ireland
• Australia: right in the middle, and doing
pretty well by way of labour utilisation:
Growth of GDP per capita
= Growth of GDP per hour
+
worked
Growth in labour
utilisation
Italy
Portugal
Germany
Switzerland
France
Netherlands
EU15
Austria
Belgium
G7
Denmark
Japan
OECD
Spain
Canada
Mexico
Norway
NAFTA
United States
Australia
New Zealand
United Kingdom
Sweden
Iceland
Finland
Luxembourg
Ireland
Greece
Poland
Korea
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovak Republic
Turkey
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
…but Australia’s ride is bumpy
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
Australia
EU15
1,0
USA
0,0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-1,0
-2,0
%difference to level of GDP/hour relative to the USA in 1995
LP levels and growth- has there been
convergence?
-2,00
60
Downward
Convergence:
narrowing gap
from above
Widening Gap
from above
LUX
NOR
40
BEL
20
FRA
0
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
AUS
-20
0,50
1,00
IRL
FIN
GRC
-40
Widening Gap
from below
2,00
2,50
3,00
SWE
ICL
NZL
1,50
Catch-up:
narrowing gap
from below
POR
HUN
-60
SLR
CZR
MEX
KOR
-80
%-point difference growth rate 95-06 to the USA
Slowing in most countries
Multi-factor
productivity
Except
most
probably
new
EU
Negative
MFP
growth
inre-structuring
Italy,MFP
around
zerostill
in
Australia:
slowing
but in
overall
growth
countries
no data)
Spain
Acceleration
in(but
Japan
and USA
above average
of set
of
countries
considered
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
1995-00
2000-05
Is there a story to tell?
• No single story for all or most of the OECD
countries, except for overall slowing of
productivity growth compared to 2nd half of
90s
• But there may be several stories:
1. Productivity pick-up in services
•
•
USA: IT-boom; Dot.com bust, MFP acceleration
among service industries and IT users
(Jorgenson), decreasing capital intensification
Ireland, Finland (IT producers) and UK (service
orientation) may also fit that picture
Is there a story to tell?
2. Catch-up and restructuring: productivity
growth in new EU member countries,
manufacturing important
3. Services MFP does not pick up:
– Large European countries -Italy, France
– Germany: interesting – some labour market
reforms seem to take on, unit labour costs
have fallen and the manufacturing industry
has been doing well despite the high €
– Japan, Korea: productivity gains are in
manufacturing
Is there a story to tell?
4. Primary industries shape productivity:
– Australia, Norway, Canada: primary and
resource industries shape much of the
productivity picture. Australia has a good
record of product market reform and service
sector productivity has been steady.
OECD recommendations
• 3 main policy areas
– Reduction of regulatory barriers to
competition in particular in service industries
– Reduction of distortionary agricultural
subsidies
– Fostering of human capital and innovation
• Depending on the ‘story’, a different policy
mix is needed for different countries
To finish: some OECD projects
related to productivity
• In the context of SNA 1993 revision
– Manual on capital measurement: advanced
draft available and comments welcome!
– Manual on measuring R&D capital: full draft
by end 2008
• In the context of complementing GDP by
welfare-based considerations
– Set of indicators on net basis
– Research on holding gains/losses and
concepts of income
To finish: some OECD projects
related to productivity
• Productivity indicators: focus of 2008
OECD Factbook
• New member countries for which
productivity measurement and –analysis is
important:
– Russia
– Chile
– Israel
- Estonia
- Slovenia