Transcript スライド 1

Progressing Priorities for Structural
Reform; A case of Japan
February 26th, 2007
Naohiro Yashiro
International Christian University and
Council for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Japan
Speed of the aging in Japan is higher
than other OECD, even accelerating
recently
International Comparison of the Ratio of the Elderly
45
40
35
30
％
25
20
15
10
5
0
1880
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source:Population and Social Security Institute
Japan(2006）
Japan（2002）
Japan（1997）
France
USA
China
Australia
2
Declining population of productive age
peaking at year 1995
Population age of 15-64
(average year-on-year increases)
1500
1000
thoudand
500
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
-500
-1000
-1500
Source; Population and Social Security Research Institute
3
Long-run stagnation of the economy is mainly
due to a lack of structural adjustment to
changing economic circumstances
Re al GD P gro w th
14
12
10
8
％
6
4
2
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
56
0
-2
-4
4
A New Growth Strategy
 Increase in average productivity by
utilizing Information Technology
 Improving competitiveness of underdeveloped industries through globalization
 Removing obstacles for new firms entering
the emerging markets in the aging society
 Movement of labor force from low
productive to high productive industries
and regions
5
Productivity growth for offsetting
the declining labor force
6
Diversion between a highly productive manufacturing
sector and a low productive service sector
Comparison of labor produ c tivity
100000
95000
90000
85000
dollar
80000
75000
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
USA
France
Italy
Australia
UK
Germany
Source: United Nations
Total industry
Finland
Japan
OECD
Manufacturing
7
High levels of research and
development expenditures
Japan maintains 10% share of exporting
high-technology products in the world
markets
Share of R&D to GDP
EU15
2.0
OECD average
2.2
2.6
USA
3.2
Japan
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
8
Large gap between inputs and outputs
of research and development
University management, labor markets, and
competition policies need to be improved
International comparison of R&D indicators
S h ar e o f ve n t u r e i n t o t al
i n ve s t m e n t
S h ar e o f k n o wl e dg e - bas e d
i n t o t al s e r vi c e s
S h ar e o f s c i e n c e i n t o t al
di pl o m a
S h ar e o f r e s e ar c h e r s i n
t o t al e m pl o ye e s
0
5
10
15
Japan
OECD Average
20
25
30
9
Factors for low return to R&D investment
 Lower mobility of researchers between
firms, research institutes and government
 Low ratio of foreign researchers
Average turnover of researchers
Netherland
3.5
Australia
2.6
Germany
2
USA
1.6
0.8
Japan
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Source; OECD
2.5
3
3.5
4
10
Widening gap in outward and inward
foreign direct investment
Leading to less competition and less employment
opportunities in the domestic markets;
Foreigh Direct Investment (% of GDP)
10
9.1
9
8
7
6.3
% of GDP
6
5
4.9
4
3
2.4
2
1.2
1
0.7
0
1995
2000
Source: Ministry of Finance
Outward FDI
Inward FDI
2005
11
An Example; Growth prospect in
health care service industries
 Quality difference in health care services are
not reflected in prices;
 Insufficient information on quality of health
care services;
 Restrictive rule on combining public insurance
and private insurance in the same treatment
based on an egalitarian rule;
 Prohibition of firm-managed hospitals makes
M&A quite difficult and preventing dynamic
efficiency in the medical service markets;
12
Inefficiency in agricultural protection
 Japan’s share of agricultural production is 1.1%, but
accounts for 3.4% of labor force;
 Average farmland is 1% of the US and 5% of
Germany and France
13
Labor-market “Big Bang”
 Flexibility in the labor market is a key to improve
labor productivity;
 Shifting the labor force to high-productive sectors
by lowering employment barriers;
 Introducing the “white-collar exemption”
 Equal treatment of workers between internal and
external labor markets based on occupation;
 Using private initiatives in the public employment
services, despite the ILO treaty
14
Special Zones for regulatory reform
 Established in 2003 as an endeavor to
enhance nation-wide regulatory reforms
 Regulations are eased in geographically
limited areas as a testing ground, and are
to be implemented to at the national level;
 Due to the large degree of independence
of ministries, an area-based regulatory
reform and decentralization can lead to
original initiatives which might take longer;
 SZ is intended as a tool for speeding up of
the nation-wide regulatory reform.
15
The more the region depends on public
investment, the less likely it proposes SZ
Ratios of Special District Proposals and Public Investment
(2003)
60
Ratio of proposals for Special Zone (Y) (%)
50
40
y = -14.64Ln(x) + 43.815
(-3.08)
(7.26)
2
R = 0.265
30
20
10
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ratio of public investment (X) (%)
16
Role of the Council on Economic and Fiscal
Policy (CEFP)
 Chaired by the Prime Minister and exercise of
the leadership in policy making;
 Reflecting the views of four private-sector
experts in business and academics;
 Since its creation in 2001, it has played a key
role in Japan’s structural reform as well as
economic and fiscal policy;
 Formulating medium-term strategy combined
with economic and fiscal outlook
17