Transcript Heinberg-PeakOil-May07

The
Peak
Oil
Challenge
Opportunities and Challenge
at the end ofof
Cheap Petroleum
Peak Oil
Richard Heinberg
Richard
ScrippsHeinberg
College
Stroud
Council
September
18, 2006
May 31, 2007
Post Carbon Institute
UK
UK
Chevron:
“Oil production is in decline in
33 of the 48 largest oil producing
countries, yet energy demand is
increasing around the globe as
economies grow and nations
develop.” www.willyoujoinus.com
Global Oil Discoveries
ExxonMobil 2003
Global crude oil production
All liquid fuels
Saudi Arabia production
Mexico Production
How serious a
problem is this?
Peaking of World Oil Production:
Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
(commissioned by US Department of Energy, February 2005)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S.
and the world with an unprecedented risk
management problem. As peaking is approached,
liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase
dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the
economic, social, and political costs will be
unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on
both the supply and demand sides, but to have
substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a
decade in advance of peaking.
GAO Report on Peak Oil
• Released April 2007; conclusions:
• Did not attempt a time estimate; forecasts
of peak range from 2005 to 2030
• The risks are serious and growing
• At best, the US can replace 4% of its liquid
fuels with alternatives by 2015
• Secretary of Energy should establish a
federal Peak Oil strategy
What are the Alternatives?
• Liquids from Natural Gas (FischerTropsch)
• Liquids from Coal
• Biofuels
• Hydrogen
• Electrified transport
• Conservation
Post Carbon Institute
A second coal study…
From “The Future of Coal” report to the European
Commission from the Institute for Energy (in draft)
• “[T]he world could run out of economically
recoverable … reserves of coal much earlier than
widely anticipated.”
• “The amount of actual recoverable coal is … less
than the widely published estimates of reserves.”
• “[C]oal might not be so abundant, widely available
and reliable as an energy source in the future.”
Post Carbon Institute
World
Energy
Sources that supply 93% of
current world energy will all
begin to decline during the next
25 years
Ethanol to the rescue?
“Even if all of the 300 million acres (500,000
square miles) of currently harvested U.S.
cropland produced ethanol, it wouldn’t
supply all of the gasoline and diesel fuel we
now burn for transport, and it would supply
only about half of the needs for the year
2025. And the effects on land and would be
devastating.”
--“The False Hope of Biofuels: For Energy and
Environmental Reasons, Ethanol Will Never Replace
Gasoline” (James Jordan and James Powell,
Washington Post, July 2, 2006)
Hydrogen cars…when?
• Hydrogen is not an energy source
• There are significant storage problems
• Spending money on hydrogen research tends to
take investment capital away from the
development of primary renewable energy
sources
• Electricity is a more practical
carrier in most cases…
especially with battery
advances
A liquid fuels crisis?
• Because of impending supply constraints
for natural gas and coal, “Peak Oil” is not
just a liquid fuels crisis, but the beginning
of an across-the-board energy crisis.
• This must inform our strategy: fuel
switching will not help much, and attention
must be paid to electricity supply.
Post Carbon Institute
Evaluating energy options
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Energy return on investment
Size of resource
Infrastructure requirement
Convenience of use
Environmental impact
Renewability
Scalability
Location of resource
Conservation:
Efficiency and Curtailment
• Like alternative energy sources,
conservation (efficiency) requires
investment.
• Investments yield diminishing returns.
• However, at least in the initial stages,
efficiency is almost always cheaper than
new supply options.
• Curtailment is the cheapest option of all, but
requires changes in habits and expectations.
Areas for application of
conservation strategies…
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Agriculture
Transportation
Space heating and cooling
Urban design, permitting, zoning
Tax and incentive policies
Lighting
Manufacturing
Post Carbon Institute
Transportation:
Electrify it!
Rail and light rail—
the best long-term
options for
motorized land
transport of freight
and people…
electric air
transport as well?
Personal land transport
• The Velomobile
• 20-50 times as efficient as a Prius
• Electric assist
What does “green” mean?
In some ways, it makes sense to use
carbon emissions as the measure of
both the problem and potential solutions,
since
• Carbon emissions are the primary driver of
climate change, and
• Climate change is the worst environmental
problem facing us.
Post Carbon Institute
What does “green” mean?
However, exclusive use of the carbon
emissions metric can be misleading:
• It ignores fuel supply problems
• It leads to false solutions like hydrogen,
nuclear, corn ethanol, and “clean” coal
• There is no substitute for energy literacy!
Opportunities amidst Crisis
• Jobs helping individuals, businesses
improve energy efficiency
• More labor needed in agriculture
• Opportunities for strategic investment in
alternative energy industries, electric and
public transport
• The end of cheap international transport
means the renewal of local manufacturing
Post Carbon Institute
What about global policy?
A promising strategy:
the Oil Depletion Protocol
Why focus on oil?
• The world’s primary energy source
• The basis of global energy trade (coal
and natural gas are regional
resources)
• The world’s foremost strategic
resource: nations will go to war to
control oil (they’ve done it before!)
Without a Protocol
• Price volatility will make planning and
investment for the energy transition difficult
• Conflict over remaining oil reserves could
engulf most of the world
• Lack of planning and preparation will leave
societies vulnerable to economic collapse
• …rendering the world incapable of dealing
with other problems, including climate
change
The general direction
• We need an agreement to gradually
reduce oil consumption in order to
discourage competition, stabilize
prices, and aid with planning and
preparation
• The rate of reduction should be
pegged to some objective datum so
as to avert lengthy negotiations
THE PROTOCOL
Nations shall aim to reduce their
oil consumption by at least the
world depletion rate
The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan for a Sensible Energy Future
THE PROTOCOL
No nation shall produce oil above
its National Depletion Rate
No nation shall import oil above
the World Depletion Rate
The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan for a Sensible Energy Future
WORLD DEPLETION RATE
amount extracted annually
amount left to extract
The World Depletion Rate is currently 2.6%.
This is the amount by which oil importing
nations are required to reduce their yearly
imports. Yet-to-produce = Remaining reserves + yet-to-find reserves
The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan for a Sensible Energy Future
100000000
80000000
60000000
40000000
20000000
Years
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
0
1
Barrels of oil per day
2.6 Depletion
Municipal Efforts
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Kinsale, Ireland
San Francisco, CA
Bloomington, IN
Sebastopol, CA
Denver, CO
Oakland, CA
Plymouth, NH
Portland, OR
Tompkins County, NY
Willits, CA
oildepletionprotocol.org
postcarboncities.org
postcarbon.org
richardheinberg.com
oildepletionprotocol.org
postcarboncities.org
postcarbon.org
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