Transcript 5.1 botswana qna presentation

COMPILATION OF QUARTERLY
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
BOTSWANA
BY Lekoko Simako
CONTENTS
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Background
Compilation Framework
Classifications
GDP by production approach
Data Sources by Economic Activity
Revisions
Challenges
Way Forward
Background
• QNA adopt the same principles, definitions,
and structure as the annual national accounts
(ANA).
• In the initial stage of implementation, only
estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) by
production side can be derived.
• Extensions can be made as the use of the
system becomes more established
Contd.
• Quarterly accounts have to be produced in a
very short period of time
• Quarterly National Accounts are published 90
days after reference quarter.
• They cannot be as comprehensive as annual
accounts with full articulation of institutional
sectors.
Background
• Rely on roughly estimated data and therefore
need to be more frequently revised as more
reliable data come into streams
• Benchmark QNA to annual accounts
• Quarterly account data needs to be seasonally
adjusted
Compilation Framework
• System of National Accounts (SNA) is used as a
framework (1993)
•SNA designed to apply to countries at any
stage of development.
• Crucial to understand the principles of the
SNA and then apply them in light of local
circumstances.
•IMF Quarterly National Accounts Manual
Classifications
The SNA uses several classifications
•International Standard Industrial Classification
of All Economic Activities (ISIC) – is the
international reference classification for
productive activities
•Classification of individual Consumption
According to Purpose (COICOP)
• Classification of the function of Government
(COFOG)
• HS: Foreign Trade
Production approach
• GDP by the production approach is assumed
more reliable
• It is also called the output approach, measures
GDP as the difference between the value of
output less the value of goods and services
used in producing these outputs during an
accounting period
Main sources from the Statistical Office
• Short-term surveys by economic activity
• Sales/Turnover (output)
and on prices
Consumer prices
Production prices
Export and import prices
Main administrative sources
• Tax information
• Government data on revenues and
expenditures
• Financial intermediation and insurance
companies
• Information from large corporations (Mining,
Water, Electricity, Communications,
Transportation etc…
• Exports and Imports of goods and services
Sources by Activity: AGRICULTURE
• Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
• Ministry of agriculture
- Actual harvest data (crops, Horticulture)
-Forecasts, especially for most recent quarters
• Surveys (farmers, marketers)
• Marketing organizations (BAMB)
• Livestock population
• Animal slaughter statistics
MINING
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Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Quarterly sales and inventory figures
Administrative data (production statistics)
Exports data
PPI components/specific purpose price indices
MANUFACTURING
• Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
• Surveys:
• Quantity data
• Sales figures
• VAT data (on sales)
• Export data (eg. Meat products, textiles,
polished diamonds etc..)
• PPI components
Water and Electricity
• Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
• Quarterly sales figures – Admin records
• Physical quantity from large utility companies
or authorities
• Electricity generation/consumption
• water supplied
• Consumption of inputs
• PPI components/specific tariffs
Construction
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Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Building permits (administrative register)
Surveys: - Construction companies
Input indicators (supply of building materials)
Government budget for public construction
• Road construction, Dams
Wholesale and Retail Trade
• Surveys of retail and wholesale trade
• VAT data
• CPI components
Transportation and Storage
• Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
• Surveys : revenue/quantities (passengers or
freight
• Information from large enterprises (airlines,
airports, rail, public transportation)
• Freight: volume of goods handled
• PPI/CPI components
Accommodation and Service Activities
• Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
• Accommodation Survey (Turnover, COE and
Employment) - DOT
• Tourists arrivals
• CPI components
Financial and Insurance Activities
• Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
• Money and banking statistics
• Stocks of deposits and loans, interest
receivable and payable by institutional sector
(for FISIM calculation)
• Life insurance (premiums and claims)
• Non-life insurance (premiums and benefits)
• Deflation (on deposits and lending, but not on
FISIM directly)
Real Estate Activities
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Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Surveys
VAT data
Dwelling rents
Stock of dwellings (own-account)
Housing price/rates
Public administration; Defence; Social
Security
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Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Government finance statistics
Employment
Wage index
EDUCATION
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Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Government finance statistics
Survey (Private Education)
Quantity indicators from public/private school
(number of pupils enrolled, teaching staff
number)
• Wage index/CPI
Human health and social work activities
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Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Government finance statistics
Survey (Private hospital
Wage index/CPI
Taxes on products/Subsidies
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Taxes on imports
Value Added Tax
Ministry of Finance
Values and volumes of imports (preferably
with breakdown by type of product)
Revisions
• Revisions are an essential part of good quarterly
national accounts (QNA) compilation practice
because they provide users with data that are as
timely and accurate as possible.
• Good management of the process of revisions
requires the existence of a well-established and
transparent revision policy.
• First estimates are normally based on limited or
unaudited data and hence cannot be precise and
absolute. The figures are revised after receiving
finalized or audited data from companies
Revisions contd.
• Quarterly Estimates should be benchmarked
to Annual Estimates.
• Excel Procedure for Bench Marking (XLPBM)is
used.
TRAINING
• Every year National Accountants are invited
for different training platforms either by IMF,
Afritac South, SADC, MFEMI, AfDB, COMESA.
• Benchmark to other countries with well
established QNA
Challenges
• Obtaining access
• Different classifications
• Timeliness
Way forward
• Implementation of SNA 2008
• Compilation of Supply and Use Table (SUT)
• Rebasing
END
THANK YOU